August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[DoctorMu]

Wxman57 is a busy guy.

It does raise an eyebrow when he says he is personally making storm preps. I’d rather not have to deal with the direct impacts from a storm but if it’s gonna happen let’s get it over with now before I have to run pool pumps. We don’t have a generator yet and will have to make-do for a season or two.

It's one way to fill a pool.

j/k

[TexasBreeze]

Closer to current time and home -what is in Louisiana today is a hint of the coming days for our area. Nice area of storms taking advantage of the summertime heat heading overall west over there.

[DoctorMu]

Now you see it. Now you don't...

on that GFS model ridging from Aug 30 to Aug 31st. And the TC explodes. This is that one time I'm pulling for the death ridge.





Maybe not too much, because GFS has ridging start to build again causing the TC to drift west across Texas after landfall. GEFS, GEPS stall the TC over south Texas.

[Stratton20]

And to be expected this 18z GFS run has brought out the fear mongerers on social media probably going to see alot of “Oh its the end of the world” and or abandon SE texas! Comments

[djmike]

Oh hell nah… Thats the entire coast of Tx and La. Time to move.

[don]

Its now invest 99L,this should help to bring more clarity to the models, it will be interesting to see what the tropical models show later.

[Rip76]

I’d take a bullseye now, instead of a bullseye Monday.

[Pas_Bon]

Oh hell nah… Thats the entire coast of Tx and La. Time to move.

Yes. And Geaux Tigers

[Cpv17]

I’d take a bullseye now, instead of a bullseye Monday.

Correct. It wouldn’t surprise me if models start trending more north and east with 99L. Louisiana is definitely in play now if you ask me.

[Cpv17]

Someone should definitely mention what the 18z Euro says if anyone has access to it.

[don]

18Z GFS ensembles

[DoctorMu]

18Z GFS ensembles

Double vision storm(s).

Without initial conditions, that's what we have.

[Rip76]

18Z GFS ensembles

Double vision storm(s).

Without initial conditions, that's what we have.

Man, I was looking up Foreigner lyrics.

[Ptarmigan]

One of the intensity forecast model has it as a Category 4 hurricane.

[Scott747]

18z HWRF, background of 95e - Moving wnw/nw off the YP and rapidly developing as it gets into the central gulf under favorable conditions.

[Stratton20]

I keep hearing that the monsoon gyre might make this system “bigger” I was wondering if someone could explain this idea?

[TXWeatherMan]

Is the HWRF running for 99L tonight?

[Andrew]

I keep hearing that the monsoon gyre might make this system “bigger” I was wondering if someone could explain this idea?

A lot of times these storms that detach or form from the ITCZ have a large moisture envelope and are rather elongated initially. These properties help to create an average or above-average diameter system.

[Stratton20]

Andrew would this be bad news for Texas? ( assuming that it does track toward the texas coast that is) ive never heard of anyone talk about this before

[Andrew]

Andrew would this be bad news for Texas? ( assuming that it does track toward the texas coast that is) ive never heard of anyone talk about this before

It could indicate more of the region being impacted if it did make landfall along the Texas Coast, but larger systems can also take a longer time to develop and strengthen.