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I expect a beautiful flare up by morning

He's seems to come back to life during night time so who knows

Pressure back up to 996 and the latest pass thru the ne was weaker than before. Doesn't look like it's moving wnw either. About 5 mph to the w.

Earlier nw pass is likely enough to hold it at 60 mph. Sure gonna have to dress up the disco though.

Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:25 pm She may be dead Jim.

Let’s see what 8am brings

"I'm not a magician, Spock, just an old country doctor."

There's circulation, but the patient looks pretty bad right now!

Looks like there are no thunderstorms near the center of Beta.

1 mb drop

I expect beta to flare up again overnight during D max. One thing i find a little concerning is that some of the mesoscale models are starting to show a training feeder band setup in the area.Starting tomorrow and into Tuesday.

I cant believe all the surge effects from this system. Beta is punching way above its weight based on radar.

It does have plenty of showers around it tonight- look what it did earlier. Don't think it is dead yet Jim!

What does d max mean?

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:49 pm What does d max mean?

Diurnal max. Effectively after all the heating of the day stops the surface cools down and the residual heat energy has to keep radiating up and mixing with the atmosphere.

Pressure rising and obs barely support a 45 kt system. It's on life support right now.

Yep, the dry air has really taken its toll this evening. We’ll see what we wake-up to in the morning. Honestly, nothing would surprise me at this point. What a strange season, to say the least.

I know that on weather forums there is a tendency to almost root for more powerful systems/storms out of a sort of fascination, but this especially isn’t the year for that, and I’m glad Beta is looking more and more like exactly what we need, a system that’s giving us a decent shot of rain (but nothing to excessive), while not packing much of a destructive punch.

As we talked about last night, dry air and shear would insure Beta would suffer. Tonight it is sucking in tons of dry air. I am not sure if it will go poof before landfall, but this puppy is for sure very ill. With all the negatives in play I never got the models suggesting a Hurricane out of this to begin with. Let's see what happens on Monday.

Decent cell developing and approaching 610 east.

Yep theirs heavy rain moving along the I-10 corridor with that shower. Its moving pretty fast so rainfall should be brief though.Theirs more showers developing in the Gulf now, i expect showers to fill in overnight into the morning.

Mid-level WV shows a lot of dry air entrainment for Beta. It will be interesting to watch tomorrow morning how much additional convection pops up because otherwise, we could be looking at substantially less rainfall for the region.

Well recon is outta there. Pressure held steady at 996 for the last 3 passes. No question though that the winds deteriorated throughout the mission.

With it devoid of any strong convective organization it's easy to track the center. Does appear that it might be moving into a patch of lessening shear and might be attempting some type of comeback around the coc.

Lots of work to do though. Need to see some building thunderstorms soon, and right now it's not looking that way.

Yeah, the dry air has infiltrated the core at the lower and mid levels. Beta is going to need some CPR.

There's still juice at the upper levels, so there's potential for a Beta zombie tomorrow with solar energy.

I think we'll get periodic showers out of the Beta zombie in the next 2-3 days.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24