Wx Infinity Forums

sambucol wrote:

Andrew wrote:So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE

What would the effects of the trough have on the storm?

Could send it farther north.

Accuweather says this "If Alex remains a smaller, more compact storm, he will likely track northwestward into Mexico. If he becomes a larger storm, Alex will have a better chance at turning northward into Texas."
i was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this statement?

Solid WV view. You can notice a UL near the Bahamas though I don't think it will have any impact on the movement of Alex.

Animated sequence to watch the motion - http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

Andrew wrote:

sambucol wrote:

Andrew wrote:So very interesting setup right now. If the storm sits around long enough it could feel the effects of the next trough. As of now though it currently looks to be heading NNE

What would the effects of the trough have on the storm?

Could send it farther north.

oh. Thanks.

what time do the 0z models start???could be interesting

Of course, the BAM models are somewhat useless for a storm out of the deep tropics in a changing environment (like with Alex). The real 00Z models will be out after midnight. Might have input from any G-IV mission that was flown, and possibly increased RAOB data. Not sure if the plane flew, though, and I'm not sure what model run the data would be used in.

wxman57 wrote:Of course, the BAM models are somewhat useless for a storm out of the deep tropics in a changing environment (like with Alex). The real 00Z models will be out after midnight. Might have input from any G-IV mission that was flown, and possibly increased RAOB data. Not sure if the plane flew, though, and I'm not sure what model run the data would be used in.

I was going to say the same thing they have been all over the place but it COULD be an indication of things to change.


So who is staying for the euro.... again..... and again....?

Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

TEXMEX Special and has been since 6 days ago . The models nailed this one

srainhoutx wrote:Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

I second that question. Please share you vast knowledge on life wxman.

Hardcoreweather wrote:TEXMEX Special and has been since 6 days ago . The models nailed this one

Not in the least, but ok

For the past few days, we've seen some of the worst model spread within a three day period that we've ever seen...

AL, 01, 2010062900, , BEST, 0, 207N, 916W, 55, 987, TS

srainhoutx wrote:Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

wxman57 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

I feel better now! Thanks!

wxman57 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

Thanks wxman57. Many are wondering what we can expect "locally".

The models are still split. I notice one has Alex making landfall on Texas/Louisiana border.

wxman57 wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Glanced at the data briefly from some drops from G-IV mission. Know you are busy wxman57, still thinking N MX?

NE MX/extreme south TX looks most like the best guess today. But I've been doing this for a long enough time to know that when you think you're confident where a developing slow-moving storm will go you're just kidding yourself, regardless of model agreement.

However, if it means anything, I'm not getting my gas cans out of the attic and filling them up yet.

Thanks for the input. A lot of people here have had long nights just like you have looking at models. I haven't seen a model spread like this for a long time.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

.UPDATE...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS
LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS SHOWN A JOG TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE MOST RECENT RECON
REPORTS HAS THE EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWN TO 987MB WHICH
IS A 3 MB FALL FROM ABOUT 4 HOURS AGO. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS STILL FORECAST