August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[cperk]

Euro central la

Where did you see that.

The swings continue.

Thank you.

[Stratton20]

One thing to point out is that the Euro has been awful in terms of a storma strength, it usually underestimates the environment ahead of the system, and the gulf is primed for this to develop in, Euro has a weak system, I am very skeptical about that, im not wishing for a strong storm, but it is hard to ignore the energy in the gulf that awaits this system if it can take advantage of that

[weatherguy425]

Hmm. I'd initially say the 12z euro is out to lunch but the 6z experimental model that I've been mentioning showed something similar.

That model has had no two similar solutions. Haha. It’ll be interesting to watch. Like you mentioned earlier, an LLC will help.

[Scott747]

Hmm. I'd initially say the 12z euro is out to lunch but the 6z experimental model that I've been mentioning showed something similar.

That model has had no two similar solutions. Haha. It’ll be interesting to watch. Like you mentioned earlier, an LLC will help.

It was the first with developing the northern part of the wave axis. I've been discounting it because it was so far to the n and e. Initially around the Caymans and now closer to western Cuba. Only thing that gives me pause is that a totally independent model (Euro) is hinting at the same idea as well with a similar ridging setup. I mean I highly doubt it but I'm already in chase planning mode and not taking anything off the table.

[weatherguy425]

Hmm. I'd initially say the 12z euro is out to lunch but the 6z experimental model that I've been mentioning showed something similar.

That model has had no two similar solutions. Haha. It’ll be interesting to watch. Like you mentioned earlier, an LLC will help.

It was the first with developing the northern part of the wave axis. I've been discounting it because it was so far to the n and e. Initially around the Caymans and now closer to western Cuba. Only thing that gives me pause is that a totally independent model (Euro) is hinting at the same idea as well with a similar ridging setup. I mean I highly doubt it but I'm already in chase planning mode and not taking anything off the table.

Fair enough. The other factor here is delayed deepening on the 12Z; impacts speed of movement which will also impact interaction with ridge, etc.

[weatherguy425]

Some more background on today’s 12Z ECMWF run. Ensembles are out in about 40 minutes. Just watching at this point. Still a lot of uncertainty as others have said.

[Scott747]

That model has had no two similar solutions. Haha. It’ll be interesting to watch. Like you mentioned earlier, an LLC will help.

It was the first with developing the northern part of the wave axis. I've been discounting it because it was so far to the n and e. Initially around the Caymans and now closer to western Cuba. Only thing that gives me pause is that a totally independent model (Euro) is hinting at the same idea as well with a similar ridging setup. I mean I highly doubt it but I'm already in chase planning mode and not taking anything off the table.

Fair enough. The other factor here is delayed deepening on the 12Z; impacts speed of movement which will also impact interaction with ridge, etc.

No question. Also in the tweet you just posted, Andy was like myself and discounting the experimental run until the Euro gave it a little credence. It's why I like deep tropical systems and track as opposed to this pulling your hair out hybrid/psuedo CAG/wave interaction crap. lol

[weatherguy425]

It was the first with developing the northern part of the wave axis. I've been discounting it because it was so far to the n and e. Initially around the Caymans and now closer to western Cuba. Only thing that gives me pause is that a totally independent model (Euro) is hinting at the same idea as well with a similar ridging setup. I mean I highly doubt it but I'm already in chase planning mode and not taking anything off the table.

Fair enough. The other factor here is delayed deepening on the 12Z; impacts speed of movement which will also impact interaction with ridge, etc.

No question. Also in the tweet you just posted, Andy was like myself and discounting the experimental run until the Euro gave it a little credence. It's why I like deep tropical systems and track as opposed to this pulling your hair out hybrid/psuedo CAG/wave interaction crap. lol

Haha so, so true. The anxiousness is in full force! So many small and large scale things for models to resolve in the coming days.

[AtascocitaWX]

Wxman post on other page: filling up tank and charging batteries. I don't like that....

Yea I just Read his post too. when he says he is getting batteries and gas and checking Generator.. that raises the hair some.

[Cpv17]

The EPS is most likely going to have a strong Texas signal.

[srainhoutx]

Heavy rainfall potential increases for the coming weekend into early next week...

[cperk]

For those who own a generator now is the time to make sure they start especially if fuel has been in the tank for a while.

[weatherguy425]

12Z EPS is attached. The operational run was on the far-right side of the ensemble envelope. With that being said, the envelope as a whole as shifted a bit north with most members between the Rio Grande and Sabine Rivers.

[redneckweather]

Wxman post on other page: filling up tank and charging batteries. I don't like that....

Yea I just Read his post too. when he says he is getting batteries and gas and checking Generator.. that raises the hair some.

I read it and he is just being prepared as we all should be doing or have done. He also stated he hopes it stays in northern Mexico of South Texas, as in he doesn't have clue where it is going as of now.

On a side note, who the heck ran him off of this board? He doesn't post here anymore so obviously something happened.

[Kingwood36]

Wxman post on other page: filling up tank and charging batteries. I don't like that....

Yea I just Read his post too. when he says he is getting batteries and gas and checking Generator.. that raises the hair some.

I read it and he is just being prepared as we all should be doing or have done. He also stated he hopes it stays in northern Mexico of South Texas, as in he doesn't have clue where it is going as of now.

On a side note, who the heck ran him off of this board? He doesn't post here anymore so obviously something happened.

He never really liked posting here anyways..he's always been more of a s2k guy

[tireman4]

Yea I just Read his post too. when he says he is getting batteries and gas and checking Generator.. that raises the hair some.

I read it and he is just being prepared as we all should be doing or have done. He also stated he hopes it stays in northern Mexico of South Texas, as in he doesn't have clue where it is going as of now.

On a side note, who the heck ran him off of this board? He doesn't post here anymore so obviously something happened.

He never really liked posting here anyways..he's always been more of a s2k guy

I would not say that ( for folks that know him personally). Yes, if he said that about the upcoming days ahead, it is a mantra to live by. Make sure you are ready for this season, no matter what happens.

[Cpv17]

Till a center forms these models and all these ensembles don’t mean much. By 12z on Friday we should know a lot more.

[jasons2k]

Wxman57 is a busy guy.

It does raise an eyebrow when he says he is personally making storm preps. I’d rather not have to deal with the direct impacts from a storm but if it’s gonna happen let’s get it over with now before I have to run pool pumps. We don’t have a generator yet and will have to make-do for a season or two.

[Scott747]

While the eventual location of coc will definitely go a long ways in getting a better handle on eventual track. Modeling doesn't need a 'center' to pick up on a potential change in steering currents....

Otherwise just a day or so ago it was a Tampico ish solution no matter where the center formed with the projected ridging...

[TexasBreeze]

Things change! Remember when Henri was by Bermuda and early forecasts were clearly out to sea. Then it hit the mainland US. That was while fully developed while the Gulf system isn't developed yet.