August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stormlover2020]

StormLover2020 ok im not model hugging, I said what I said, why are you trying to instigate something?

I’m not just take a deep breathe and let’s get the center to form then all aboard

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 gotcha, its all good, you definitely are right about the whole wait for a center to form, but seeing all the global models jump on board with a similar solution is definitely something to watch closely

[Stormlover2020]

I agree, seems like ridge won’t be as strong and for grace models around day 6 made that flip so they are on to something

[Cpv17]

Plenty of time for things to change. My thinking remains the same. Sw Louisiana to Mexico needs to pay attention.

[TexasBreeze]

That areal range cpv17 has for it is a great area to have at this point and it really has always been MX to LA since this system has been on the radar.

[Cromagnum]

No point in stressing where a currently non-existent storm may go. Give it a couple more days to see if a center even forms at all.

[Scott747]

The HWRF is now showing the system in the background of 95e. Develops on the northern end of the wave axis and comes off the YP heading wnw.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS run

[weatherguy425]

12z GEFS run

While there is still a large spread in ensemble members, more are picking up on a northerly turn as it approaches the northeast coast of Mexico, lower Texas Coast (weaker west side of ridge, more troughing). There are some stronger members on there as well.

[DoctorMu]

GFS is in agreement with the Euro, oh boy

Until there is an actual center of circulation for the models to latch onto, caution is advised for anything beyond 3 to 5 days in model world.

No initial conditions, folks. Models can't get a good handle. Probable development though and into the Bay of Campeche.

[DoctorMu]

Yes their is still uncertainty, but clearly sinxe all Global Models + the ICON are all on board at least on this run, id say the odds of a Texas Landfall are increasing

There are no odds right now...except probable development.

[DoctorMu]

I will say this. The GFS is now seeing the upper level ridge evaporate on the 30th/31st. Ensembles also lose the Upper level ridge.


It's an Aggie "tradition" that actually prob. of rain in the forecast starts when the first day of the Fall semester begins (30th), which coincides with climo and retreat of the summer death ridge... Par for the course?

I should mention the GEFS is indeed struggling to deal with two centers or solutions. One north and one south of the border.


I realize there may be a lot of excitement in the next week, but we do not want a potent hurricane or stalled TC at our shores. Our health care and utility infrastructure are in precarious shape. We're ripe for a devastating blow. Prepare and hope for the best.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu yep , we got an interesting next 6 days or so ahead of us, im concerned though because the energy in the western gulf is very high because it hasnt been disturbed by any tropical disturbances, so this has a lot of heat ocean content to work with

[JWL]

Wxman post on other page: filling up tank and charging batteries. I don't like that....

[Stormlover2020]

Euro central la

[TexasBreeze]

That is why I said the model always wants to be different!!!

[cperk]

Euro central la

Where did you see that.

[Stratton20]

Who even knows at this point lol, hopefully we get clarity in the coming days, that being said I think the ensemble members are more important to follow than individual operational runs at this time, time will tell

[Scott747]

Hmm. I'd initially say the 12z euro is out to lunch but the 6z experimental model that I've been mentioning showed something similar.

[weatherguy425]

Euro central la

Where did you see that.

The swings continue.