February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Rich]

Jeff, I was wondering, do you see the potential for accumulating snow here in Southeast Texas during the Thursday-Friday timeframe?

[srainhoutx]

We are, weatherguy425. In the pinned January thread...

[Ptarmigan]

Code: Select all

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. North wind between 14 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. 

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. North wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Interesting forecast out of Corpus Christi.

[jeff]

[quot]End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

I read your email. You seem to feel pretty confident that there will be some sort of moisture available. That is pretty awesome. Thanks for the update again Jeff.[/quote][/quote]

I am a little worried about the amounts of moisture due to the intensity of the arctic dome...but as I mentioned it does not take a lot of moisture to produce snow. We also should be wary that the models have just started to trend this way...a new trend so we need to see if they continue and become more aggressive with QPF.

[jeff]

Jeff, I was wondering, do you see the potential for accumulating snow here in Southeast Texas during the Thursday-Friday timeframe?

Too early to start talking accumulation, but one thing we have on our side that we usually do not will be a frozen ground from days below freezing leading up to the possible event. Would like to see more moisture and QPF on the models before starting to talk accumulation, but I do think it will be possible, where and how much...well you see how well we did this morning with the rains...which are still ongoing this evening in the areas where the QPF was expected to be the lowest. Aside: the 00Z WRF models was the only one which showed the current activity over our NE counties yesterday.

[Rich]

Jeff, I was wondering, do you see the potential for accumulating snow here in Southeast Texas during the Thursday-Friday timeframe?

Too early to start talking accumulation, but one thing we have on our side that we usually do not will be a frozen ground from days below freezing leading up to the possible event. Would like to see more moisture and QPF on the models before starting to talk accumulation, but I do think it will be possible, where and how much...well you see how well we did this morning with the rains...which are still ongoing this evening in the areas where the QPF was expected to be the lowest. Aside: the 00Z WRF models was the only one which showed the current activity over our NE counties yesterday.

Thanks for the explanation, and for giving us all some insight to what may be ahead!

[jeff]

Jeff, I was wondering, do you see the potential for accumulating snow here in Southeast Texas during the Thursday-Friday timeframe?

Too early to start talking accumulation, but one thing we have on our side that we usually do not will be a frozen ground from days below freezing leading up to the possible event. Would like to see more moisture and QPF on the models before starting to talk accumulation, but I do think it will be possible, where and how much...well you see how well we did this morning with the rains...which are still ongoing this evening in the areas where the QPF was expected to be the lowest. Aside: the 00Z WRF models was the only one which showed the current activity over our NE counties yesterday.

12Z this morning showed this activity also and keeps it going to the coast over Chambers and Jefferson counties

[cristina99]

okay, a couple of things. was the post about severe threat of rain for Tuesday during the day? I looked at the NWS and if I'm looking at it right, the map was for Tuesday. And about the snow, have I been reading all about Corpus? Have we decided what it's going to do in the Houston area and points north of I-10 (where I am actually - Woodlands/ Conroe area.) Sorry if I am being repetitve. I only check in about every few hours or so and have to catch up.

[Andrew]

[quot]End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

I read your email. You seem to feel pretty confident that there will be some sort of moisture available. That is pretty awesome. Thanks for the update again Jeff.

[/quote]

I am a little worried about the amounts of moisture due to the intensity of the arctic dome...but as I mentioned it does not take a lot of moisture to produce snow. We also should be wary that the models have just started to trend this way...a new trend so we need to see if they continue and become more aggressive with QPF.[/quote]


Yea the new trend is always worrisome. Hopefully the 00z will continue this. It seems like it will be a battle btw the artic air and the SW flow for temps. Do you think the CMC and other models are somewhat high for 850mb temps and surface temps? They seem to indicate that any P-Type would be rain or sleet and not snow.

-thanks again.

[srainhoutx]

Hey folks. Please take some time an go to your user control panel and update to add your general location. It will help our Pros and members to know your general location.

[wxman666]

okay, a couple of things. was the post about severe threat of rain for Tuesday during the day? I looked at the NWS and if I'm looking at it right, the map was for Tuesday. And about the snow, have I been reading all about Corpus? Have we decided what it's going to do in the Houston area and points north of I-10 (where I am actually - Woodlands/ Conroe area.) Sorry if I am being repetitve. I only check in about every few hours or so and have to catch up.

The severe threat is for Tuesday. My opinion regarding any winter wx: I believe that HGX is downplaying things for the time being. If the models are correct and remain in agreement, with the idea that Corpus is forecast to get some snow, I don't see why we would not...unless there are better dynamics further south and on the coast....which doesn't make since to me since North TX, NW TX, and W Central TX is forecast to be hit as well.

[jabcwb2]

okay, a couple of things. was the post about severe threat of rain for Tuesday during the day? I looked at the NWS and if I'm looking at it right, the map was for Tuesday. And about the snow, have I been reading all about Corpus? Have we decided what it's going to do in the Houston area and points north of I-10 (where I am actually - Woodlands/ Conroe area.) Sorry if I am being repetitve. I only check in about every few hours or so and have to catch up.

The severe threat is for Tuesday. My opinion regarding any winter wx: I believe that HGX is downplaying things for the time being. If the models are correct and remain in agreement, with the idea that Corpus is forecast to get some snow, I don't see why we would not...unless there are better dynamics further south and on the coast....which doesn't make since to me since North TX, NW TX, and W Central TX is forecast to be hit as well.

Doing a little happy dance in my head!!!!!

[jeff]

[quot]End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

I read your email. You seem to feel pretty confident that there will be some sort of moisture available. That is pretty awesome. Thanks for the update again Jeff.

I am a little worried about the amounts of moisture due to the intensity of the arctic dome...but as I mentioned it does not take a lot of moisture to produce snow. We also should be wary that the models have just started to trend this way...a new trend so we need to see if they continue and become more aggressive with QPF.[/quote]


Yea the new trend is always worrisome. Hopefully the 00z will continue this. It seems like it will be a battle btw the artic air and the SW flow for temps. Do you think the CMC and other models are somewhat high for 850mb temps and surface temps? They seem to indicate that any P-Type would be rain or sleet and not snow.

-thanks again.[/quote]

The CMC does looks warm, but the GFS and ECMWF also back the 850mb 0C line slowly NW on Friday and they have a hard time blasting it off the upper TX coast early with the arctic event. Typical arctic invasion as the cold air will likely go through Laredo and Victoria before Houston as it plows southward against the higher terrain out west. Just looked at some point forecast sounding on the GFS and it has the deeper cold air west of I-45 but appears to be in lala land with surface temperatures showing a high of 50 for IAH on Friday and a low of 26 with a 56% chance of freezing rain. If it is 26 and cloudy/raining it is not going to get anywhere near 50. I think the CMC is too warm, but it is also by far the wettest. The GFS and ECMWF are likely on the right track with temperatures...and likley QPF as the CMC seems just not right.

[Andrew]

[quot]End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

I read your email. You seem to feel pretty confident that there will be some sort of moisture available. That is pretty awesome. Thanks for the update again Jeff.

I am a little worried about the amounts of moisture due to the intensity of the arctic dome...but as I mentioned it does not take a lot of moisture to produce snow. We also should be wary that the models have just started to trend this way...a new trend so we need to see if they continue and become more aggressive with QPF.[/quote]


Yea the new trend is always worrisome. Hopefully the 00z will continue this. It seems like it will be a battle btw the artic air and the SW flow for temps. Do you think the CMC and other models are somewhat high for 850mb temps and surface temps? They seem to indicate that any P-Type would be rain or sleet and not snow.

-thanks again.[/quote]

The CMC does looks warm, but the GFS and ECMWF also back the 850mb 0C line slowly NW on Friday and they have a hard time blasting it off the upper TX coast early with the arctic event. Typical arctic invasion as the cold air will likely go through Laredo and Victoria before Houston as it plows southward against the higher terrain out west. Just looked at some point forecast sounding on the GFS and it has the deeper cold air west of I-45 but appears to be in lala land with surface temperatures showing a high of 50 for IAH on Friday and a low of 26 with a 56% chance of freezing rain. If it is 26 and cloudy/raining it is not going to get anywhere near 50. I think the CMC is too warm, but it is also by far the wettest. The GFS and ECMWF are likely on the right track with temperatures...and likley QPF as the CMC seems just not right.[/quote]

Alright that is what I was thinking. The CMC has been an outlier it seems like much of this winter either in percip of temp. Thanks again Jeff for all the updates. Hopefully come later this week we won't be speculating and will be watching snow come out of the sky.

[jeff]

I will be back to check on our backbuilding wx in a bit and defer any additional discussion on the late week pattern to wxman57 in the morning. Not to mention we will have some 00Z guidance to look at by then also to see if our new trend continues or we go back dry and cold.

One thing is sure it is going to be one heck of a cold week after tomorrow.

[cristina99]

Thanks for the explanation guys! This is exciting to see how this play out. I've been trying to tell my mom, but she won't believe me. Of course, I'd be very disappointed if it didn't happen like the rain we were supposed to get today. I really want a snow day.

[djmike]

Local mets in the Beaumont area are now forecasting sleet/snow in my area for Thurs-Fri!!

Thursday, with another hard freeze with lows starting off at 26, there will be a small chance of 10% of some snow flurries in the morning hours. Highs will near 43 with some sun by afternoon.

Friday, as we hit well below freezing again, lows start near 25 and reach only 42 for a high. There will be a 20% chance of precip again in the morning with some of that falling as snow. Accumulation is unlikely

[srainhoutx]

Thank you, Jeff.

[Andrew]

Hey folks. Please take some time an go to your user control panel and update to add your general location. It will help our Pros and members to know your general location.

Yes please update this:

Look at the top of the screen (should be upper right hand) and you should see the "User Control Panel" click that then a new page will load and a menu on the left hand side will appear named "options". From there click "profile" and then another page will load where you will see on the right hand side the "Location:" field. From there just enter your info and hit "submit". I hope that helps anyone that was a little lost.

[Andrew]

00z NAM coming in stronger so far (1052mb high):