But I'll take 30's.December 2022
slip slidin awayyy... slip slidin awayyayy. You know the nearer timing, the bitter cold is slip sliding away... come on, you KNOW you started singing along.. 
But I'll take 30's.
But I'll take 30's.Nah the coldest anomalies go south down the plains. Models always do this in this range.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Starting to feel a Canadian/Euro blend on the forecast
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6032
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 151140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Cool and quiet weather expected today with surface high pressure
in place across the state. Even with sunny skies through the af-
ternoon, high temperatures will range from the lower and mid 60s
across the CWA. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s across the
northern counties...lower to mid 40s central...upper 40s for the
coastal counties and mid 50s along the immediate coast.
By tomorrow, we should start to see some changes as the surface
high weakens/shifts to the east and the southern stream jet re-
turns across the region. Clouds will increasing from W/SW along
with increasing moisture from the Gulf. Short-range models seem
to be in decent agreement that isolated showers are possible as
additional shortwaves move in from the west and helps to drag a
second reinforcing cold front into the state. Did go ahead with
low POPs (~20%) for tomorrow night. Otherwise, highs for tomor-
row should range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s central.
Slightly warmer temperatures (upper 60s/around 70) are possible
for our far SW counties. Lows tomorrow night should be a couple
of degrees warmer, but still in the 40s for most inland areas.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
On Saturday, isolated to scattered showers can be expected as low
level moisture continues to filter in association to a coastal
low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level
trough moves across the Southern Plains. The one factor that could
limit the rain activity over the region is a surface high
pressure that is to move into north and central Texas during the
day, and could keep the moisture from moving well inland. For this
reason, kept PoPs in the 15-20% range for inland portions and the
higher values more towards the waters where it will be less
influenced by the high and where there may be the presence of some
pockets of PV. It will be a chilly start to the weekend with
highs in the 50s areawide on Saturday. The lows late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning will be in the 30s over areas
north of I-10, in the upper 30s to low 40s over areas south of
I-10, and in the mid 40s along the coasts.
The aforementioned high pressure will still be of influence over
Southeast Texas on Sunday morning, and with the addition of weak
ridging aloft, rain chances will be minimal to none. Slightly warmer
conditions expected in the afternoon as moisture begins to make its
way back across the region in response to the high pressure
departing to the east. Low level moisture will continue to filter in
from the south southwest on Monday as another coastal trough
develops over western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in isolated
to scattered showers starting along the Matagorda Bay region during
the early morning hours and expanding north northeast across the
rest of Southeast Texas throughout the day. The coastal trough and
associated low are expected to move over or near the Upper Texas
coast late afternoon or in the evening, and this close to when an
upper level trough swings east into the Southern Plains. Thus,
expect rain chances to increase during the afternoon and persist
into the evening. On Monday night, we will be on the backside of the
low as the coastal trough exits to our east and drier air will begin
to move in from the north northwest. Thus, rain chances will decrease
for the northern and central portions at night and for the southern
portions early Tuesday morning.
The debate heading closer to mid week is how far south will the
moisture really be and if another coastal trough will actually
develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Model solutions are
still a bit inconsistent at the end of the forecast period, but the
trend for the inland portions favor a solution that is more towards
the dry side. Thus, went with PoPs that are slightly lower than the
NBM for now and kept the higher chances of rain towards the offshore
waters.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF cycle as high pressure
lingers in/near the area. Will keep winds light and variable with
perhaps some high clouds moving in toward the end of this period.
41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Winds will relax and turn northeast to east today as high pressure
builds over Texas. A brief period of light onshore flow can be
expected tonight but a reinforcing dry front moving through on
Friday will bring back east northeast winds. Moderate to strong
northeast to east winds with periods of unsettled weather is
expected this weekend into early next week as the local pressure
gradient strengthens and a coastal trough develops over the western
Gulf of Mexico and moves across the Upper Texas coast by Monday.
Additional Caution flags and Advisories will likely be needed.
Conditions are expected to improve mid week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 40 56 41 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 64 44 64 44 / 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 62 56 66 48 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
MARINE...24
FXUS64 KHGX 151140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Cool and quiet weather expected today with surface high pressure
in place across the state. Even with sunny skies through the af-
ternoon, high temperatures will range from the lower and mid 60s
across the CWA. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s across the
northern counties...lower to mid 40s central...upper 40s for the
coastal counties and mid 50s along the immediate coast.
By tomorrow, we should start to see some changes as the surface
high weakens/shifts to the east and the southern stream jet re-
turns across the region. Clouds will increasing from W/SW along
with increasing moisture from the Gulf. Short-range models seem
to be in decent agreement that isolated showers are possible as
additional shortwaves move in from the west and helps to drag a
second reinforcing cold front into the state. Did go ahead with
low POPs (~20%) for tomorrow night. Otherwise, highs for tomor-
row should range from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s central.
Slightly warmer temperatures (upper 60s/around 70) are possible
for our far SW counties. Lows tomorrow night should be a couple
of degrees warmer, but still in the 40s for most inland areas.
41
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
On Saturday, isolated to scattered showers can be expected as low
level moisture continues to filter in association to a coastal
low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico and an upper level
trough moves across the Southern Plains. The one factor that could
limit the rain activity over the region is a surface high
pressure that is to move into north and central Texas during the
day, and could keep the moisture from moving well inland. For this
reason, kept PoPs in the 15-20% range for inland portions and the
higher values more towards the waters where it will be less
influenced by the high and where there may be the presence of some
pockets of PV. It will be a chilly start to the weekend with
highs in the 50s areawide on Saturday. The lows late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning will be in the 30s over areas
north of I-10, in the upper 30s to low 40s over areas south of
I-10, and in the mid 40s along the coasts.
The aforementioned high pressure will still be of influence over
Southeast Texas on Sunday morning, and with the addition of weak
ridging aloft, rain chances will be minimal to none. Slightly warmer
conditions expected in the afternoon as moisture begins to make its
way back across the region in response to the high pressure
departing to the east. Low level moisture will continue to filter in
from the south southwest on Monday as another coastal trough
develops over western Gulf of Mexico. This will result in isolated
to scattered showers starting along the Matagorda Bay region during
the early morning hours and expanding north northeast across the
rest of Southeast Texas throughout the day. The coastal trough and
associated low are expected to move over or near the Upper Texas
coast late afternoon or in the evening, and this close to when an
upper level trough swings east into the Southern Plains. Thus,
expect rain chances to increase during the afternoon and persist
into the evening. On Monday night, we will be on the backside of the
low as the coastal trough exits to our east and drier air will begin
to move in from the north northwest. Thus, rain chances will decrease
for the northern and central portions at night and for the southern
portions early Tuesday morning.
The debate heading closer to mid week is how far south will the
moisture really be and if another coastal trough will actually
develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Model solutions are
still a bit inconsistent at the end of the forecast period, but the
trend for the inland portions favor a solution that is more towards
the dry side. Thus, went with PoPs that are slightly lower than the
NBM for now and kept the higher chances of rain towards the offshore
waters.
24
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF cycle as high pressure
lingers in/near the area. Will keep winds light and variable with
perhaps some high clouds moving in toward the end of this period.
41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2022
Winds will relax and turn northeast to east today as high pressure
builds over Texas. A brief period of light onshore flow can be
expected tonight but a reinforcing dry front moving through on
Friday will bring back east northeast winds. Moderate to strong
northeast to east winds with periods of unsettled weather is
expected this weekend into early next week as the local pressure
gradient strengthens and a coastal trough develops over the western
Gulf of Mexico and moves across the Upper Texas coast by Monday.
Additional Caution flags and Advisories will likely be needed.
Conditions are expected to improve mid week.
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 40 56 41 / 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 64 44 64 44 / 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 62 56 66 48 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
MARINE...24
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6032
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
From Larry Cosgrove...
The large storm that triggered severe weather has set in motion the potential for widespread extreme cold and a possible pre-Christmas major snow and ice event for the Midwest and the Northeast.
As I had feared, the combination of high-latitude blocking (Alaska and Baffin Island) 500MB Arctic vortex (Great Lakes) and shortwaves from the eastern Pacific Basin could make for a very rough go across the eastern 2/3 of the continent next week. The cold air now in play in the USA is minor league (cPk) compared to what will be forced into the Great Plains in about five days. The cAk regime starts out in the Yukon Territory, and by December 22 will be reaching the Rio Grande Valley.
But it is the combined energy from three jet streams (Arctic, polar, and subtropical) over the Dixie states a week from today that is my main concern. If all of these systems phase properly, the system emerging over the Gulf Coast will undergo rapid deepening near Cape Hatteras NC. All three of the main operational models make a very big deal of this system, taking the center toward the Gulf of Maine on December 23 - 24. It is impossible this early to outline rain vs. ice vs. snow delineations. But wind will be a big problem from the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. And in those unlucky enough to be caught in the cold sector of this cyclone, accumulations of the white stuff and profound drifting are possible.
Watch this system. Things could get really ugly before Christmas. And beyond, as there are strong hints at another winter storm (or two) before and after New Year's Day.
The large storm that triggered severe weather has set in motion the potential for widespread extreme cold and a possible pre-Christmas major snow and ice event for the Midwest and the Northeast.
As I had feared, the combination of high-latitude blocking (Alaska and Baffin Island) 500MB Arctic vortex (Great Lakes) and shortwaves from the eastern Pacific Basin could make for a very rough go across the eastern 2/3 of the continent next week. The cold air now in play in the USA is minor league (cPk) compared to what will be forced into the Great Plains in about five days. The cAk regime starts out in the Yukon Territory, and by December 22 will be reaching the Rio Grande Valley.
But it is the combined energy from three jet streams (Arctic, polar, and subtropical) over the Dixie states a week from today that is my main concern. If all of these systems phase properly, the system emerging over the Gulf Coast will undergo rapid deepening near Cape Hatteras NC. All three of the main operational models make a very big deal of this system, taking the center toward the Gulf of Maine on December 23 - 24. It is impossible this early to outline rain vs. ice vs. snow delineations. But wind will be a big problem from the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. And in those unlucky enough to be caught in the cold sector of this cyclone, accumulations of the white stuff and profound drifting are possible.
Watch this system. Things could get really ugly before Christmas. And beyond, as there are strong hints at another winter storm (or two) before and after New Year's Day.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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A snippet from Jeff Lindner
Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.
For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30’s around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.
Late Next Week:
Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to support the unleashing of an arctic air mass into the US around the middle of next week with an arrival into TX around the 22nd. This cold air mass is driven by a significant 1050-1065mb arctic high pressure dome that develops over NW Canada later this weekend and sinks southward toward the US/Montana border early next week. Some of the deterministic model runs want to push the arctic air more east with a glancing (still cold) blow across TX. Historical analogs suggest that once this air mass begins to move southward it is coming south fast and cold as global models tend to struggle with the extreme density of such air masses and are historically too warm and slow with the arrival of such air masses into the southern plains. Still need to see how cold the air mass becomes this weekend in NW Canada before having a decent idea of how cold temperatures will be in the southern plains and TX late next week.
For now will go with an arrival of the arctic front across SE TX on the 22nd/23rd with significantly colder temperatures. Averaging out the various longer range guidance outputs suggests at least 2-3 nights below freezing over the entire area with highs in the 30’s around Christmas Eve/Day. This may need to be trended colder as the intensity of this air mass comes into better focus early next week. The NAM usually does a good job with these sorts of air masses and we are still 3-4 days before coming into the view of that guidance. For now much of the global guidance is fairly dry behind the arctic front, so at the moment no entertainment of freezing or frozen precipitation.
Pow Ponder. It’s coming.
https://youtu.be/rSuP4RYHfy0
https://youtu.be/rSuP4RYHfy0
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MontgomeryCoWx
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- Location: Weimar, TX
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Ran 6 miles this morning and set a personal best. Upper 30s are my wheelhouse for a very fast run. Can we lock in no warmer than 40 at night/morning for the rest of Winter?
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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Looks like models are unfortunately trending for the arctic blast to not be around as long, hopefully thats just a progressive biacy though
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MontgomeryCoWx
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These things always come in faster and hang longer.
With that said, I don’t see anything suggesting that outside of the GFS.
With that said, I don’t see anything suggesting that outside of the GFS.
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
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the Canadian is warmer on christmas day, also i expect this to be a dry frontal passage, its going to be to dry for an precipitation
Last edited by Stratton20 on Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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brazoriatx
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Looking like a dry cold...I'm ok with that...plenty of time this winter for some precip
Models are modifying the air too much. Hi-res models are gonna be far more accurate. Expect temps to be a good bit colder than what models are indicating right now.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Every time. Everyyyyy time.
I love it when people make definitive statements this far out. The only definite is it’s going to be below normal from here through first week of January.
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
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I did suggest the NAM might be a good model for handling the cold air, though im not quite sure how reliable the model is in general lol
It’s decent for temps during the winter.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:20 am I did suggest the NAM might be a good model for handling the cold air, though im not quite sure how reliable the model is in general lol
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srainhoutx
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We use the 3km NAM here in the Mountains for temperatures and picking up intensity of NW Flow Snow. It does well sniffing out suttle temperature changes... 
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Today IMO IS the Chamber of Commerce day. Brilliant blue skies. No A/C. No sprinklers. Just a blast of NG-fed furnace heat this morning and everything's great.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:15 am Ran 6 miles this morning and set a personal best. Upper 30s are my wheelhouse for a very fast run. Can we lock in no warmer than 40 at night/morning for the rest of Winter?
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Harveyvsallison
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Wish cast alert, wish cast alert.
I’m expecting highs in the 30’s and lows in the 20’s. On Christmas Eve and Christmas for HTX. Things are trending toward a moderate cold snap. Don’t expect a 2021 or 1989 event!
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Stratton20
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Harveyvallison we absolutely cannot take a 2021 or 1989 event in terms of temp off the table, this air is coming atraight from the coldest source region on earth, the global modes are going to be too warm again just like they were with the february 2021 arctic outbreak
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