August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

Yep ICON is in agreement with the Euro, we might be seeing a new trend gere

[Andrew]

12Z GFS is weaker/further SE across the SE United States. Upper-plains trough is a little deeper too

[weatherguy425]

12Z GFS is weaker/further SE across the SE United States. Upper-plains trough is a little deeper too

Yep! The approaching trough and erosion of the western ride flank is going to be another factor to watch. Early portion of the GEFS also develops the northern end of the wave envelope in the western Caribbean within the next 90 hours, rather than closer to Honduras.

[weatherguy425]

12Z GFS is weaker/further SE across the SE United States. Upper-plains trough is a little deeper too

Yep! The approaching trough and erosion of the western ride flank is going to be another factor to watch. Early portion of the GEFS also develops the northern end of the wave envelope in the western Caribbean within the next 90 hours, rather than closer to Honduras.

Though, the 12Z GFS is also struggling with a broad circulation in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Which center becomes dominate, does it every become vertically stacked, etc.

[don]

12z GFS big shift north into Corpus. Seems like it has two centers competing which doesn't seem likely. Given the conditions In the gulf,expect a more stacked and organized system than what the GFS is currently showing.

[weatherguy425]

12z GFS big shift north into Corpus...

I remember a Twitter conversation amongst Mets as Elsa was approaching Florida - the GFS may be struggling with deep convection as it approaches the coastline - developing (in reality) non-existent centers and competition between areas of low pressure.

[weatherguy425]

12z GFS big shift north into Corpus...

I remember a Twitter conversation amongst Mets as Elsa was approaching Florida - the GFS may be struggling with deep convection as it approaches the coastline - developing (in reality) non-existent centers and competition between areas of low pressure.

Yep! Here is an explainer, attached.

[Stratton20]

GFS is in agreement with the Euro, oh boy

[TexasBreeze]

That really is a big shift from just a couple runs ago. Let's see if this agreement holds or it shifts again since it seems like the 2 big models like to be different from each other most of the time till last minute. Main takeaway is that heavy rains would be in order with this

[srainhoutx]

GFS is in agreement with the Euro, oh boy

Until there is an actual center of circulation for the models to latch onto, caution is advised for anything beyond 3 to 5 days in model world.

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx oh I get that but still this is a big trend, even the 12z CMC looks to trend towards the Euro

[Stratton20]

12z CMC

[don]

12Z CMC shifts north also into Port Aransas

[Stormlover2020]

Been tracking storms for over 20 years till center forms then who knows what will happen

[Stratton20]

Yes their is still uncertainty, but clearly sinxe all Global Models + the ICON are all on board at least on this run, id say the odds of a Texas Landfall are increasing

[Stormlover2020]

Don’t model hug, yesterday u said 80 percent Mexico

[tireman4]

Interesting days ahead

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 I never said that, I said ai was confident this wasnt going to be a texas threat, obviously my thinking has changed a bit with todays model runs , im not model hugging, just watching the trends

[Stormlover2020]

Stormlover2020 I never said that, I said ai was confident this wasnt going to be a texas threat, obviously my thinking has changed a bit with todays model runs , im not model hugging, just watching the trends

You said I’m 85 percent confident this will be a Mexico storm

[Stratton20]

StormLover2020 ok im not model hugging, I said what I said, why are you trying to instigate something?