August 2020:

[Ace]

If Laura is South of Cuba (and holding as she passes some land ?), and the current run of models has her *north* of Cuba....wouldn't that mean that the 11 am run will show a more Westward track?

[Ace]

Let me clarify: yes, we've stated that NHC will shift west as many models are showing the Tx\La border.....but it appears that most that I've seen are still counting her center as *North* of Cuba not South.....and *that* brings her to the Tx\La border. Would that move it even further West?

[TexasBreeze]

Re Above post: I have been wondering this too if they see it north or south of Cuba...

[srainhoutx]

Let me clarify: yes, we've stated that NHC will shift west as many models are showing the Tx\La border.....but it appears that most that I've seen are still counting her center as *North* of Cuba not South.....and *that* brings her to the Tx\La border. Would that move it even further West?

A more South solution regarding Cuba does suggest a less disrupted core and more Westerly component for the next 24 to 36 hours. Every degree of latitude it doesn't gain suggests a more Westerly solution.

[Cpv17]

I think the center of Laura is south of where the NHC currently has it.

[Ace]

Thanks Srain!! Always appreciate your input (for years)!

[srainhoutx]

If anyone has NOT started restocking their supplies and at least started thinking about your family's Hurricane Plans, this is the day to do that. The NHC will likely have to begin Watch/Warning for Laura sometime tomorrow along portions of the Gulf Coast. I know most here are very weather savvy. I contacted my family back in Houston this morning. They're out now restocking the groceries and medications...

[ccbluewater]

Water was definitely running lower than normal at my local HEB this morning. If I were in the Golden Triangle, I'd be starting to make preparations today and hope they weren't needed. If needed, tomorrow I will go down to the house down near Freeport to start making preps as it will take a bit more time, and require towing boats back, etc.. If the alarm gets sounded for Houston it will get crazy I am sure.

[Kingwood36]

Water was definitely running lower than normal at my local HEB this morning. If I were in the Golden Triangle, I'd be starting to make preparations today and hope they weren't needed. If needed, tomorrow I will go down to the house down near Freeport to start making preps as it will take a bit more time, and require towing boats back, etc.. If the alarm gets sounded for Houston it will get crazy I am sure.

I live in freeport and people are already acting stupid here...ive seen around 20 boats being taken out within the last 2 hours

[txbear]

I really like the trend gif feature Levi has on tropical tidbits. The GFS has been strikingly consistent over the last handful of runs around the Galveston to TX/LA border. And man does it show Laura being something fierce.

[Scott747]

You can toss the easier runs if the center is further to the s. Hopefully if it is the 12z runs will initialize correctly.

[Stormlover2020]

I know it’s the nam but we are getting to that 3-4 day range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=-3

[Texashawk]

Honestly... I just have a really, really, bad feeling about Laura. Like, I live in Mo City(Sienna) and still looking for a hotel in Austin bad. I hope I’m wrong, but it doesn’t hurt to be prepared. This looks like a bad one.

[Cpv17]

I know it’s the nam but we are getting to that 3-4 day range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=-3

That model initialized it way too far north but yeah that’s showing Texas as well. Probably would end up around San Luis Pass.

[Cromagnum]

Doomsday scenario if this pans out. Starting to get concerned that more than a few models show a very strong storm forming and shifts west keep happening.

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrisnunley/ ... 5944313858

[Scott747]

Track shifted w.

[Tx2005]

I'm pretty concerned the chatter regarding the storm being further south than what's been initiated on these model runs. It sounds like the further south Laura is, the more west the likely track is.

[Tx2005]

Well there we go, TX/LA border right in the middle of the cone now.

[Kingwood36]

Here we go...

[Scott747]

New track is right over Cameron.

Now we will see what the 12z runs have with the center being a little further s.