MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[jasons2k]

90F at the house. You can feel the heat now...

[Cpv17]

Once we get past Saturday it looks like summer is here. Hot and dry.

[Katdaddy]

A 20-30% chance of afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms across SE TX with daytime heating. The SPC has much of SE TX in a Slight Risk area with inland areas just N and W of Houston with an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. It will be interesting to see how the storm complex over Central TX evolves overnight and into Friday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Friday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

A strong storm system will move into the southern plains today into Saturday with widespread severe weather expected.

SPC has outlooked all of SE TX in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday with areas mainly north of I-10 in an enhanced risk. Overall ingredients look to come together with strong instability (CAPE) and decent shear values to produce a line of strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening. With the increasing potential for a squall line type feature, the threat for wind damage and isolated tornadoes along the leading edge of the line may overweigh the risk for large hail. Isolated supercells could form ahead of the line, especially north of I-10, with a damaging hail and tornado threat.

It is unclear how far south the overall threat may extend, but the latest SPC outlook does extend the slight risk area to the coast, think the best threat will be generally north of I-10 and west of I-45 from mid afternoon through mid evening on Saturday, but this timing could change some.

This system is fast moving, so while there will be brief heavy rainfall, no widespread flooding is expected.

SPC Day 2 (Saturday) Outlook:

[stormlover]

I think setx won’t get to much, models have been up and down, maybe we can get something after dark Saturday who knows

[Andrew]

Most models indicate the inversion will hold strong across the region. Most of the mid-level energy will lift north quickly which means we will have to primarily rely on daytime heating to get convection going. There may be some outflow boundaries present from the line of storms too which could help provide enough lift, but at the end of the day, it will really depend on how much mixing occurs to erode the cap. Whatever does pop though, will have plenty of energy available (3-5k of CAPE) so storms will transition to severe status rather quickly.

[Cpv17]

I guess it’s their turn up north to see the flooding rains. Rain here looks finished for a while.

[DoctorMu]

Dewpoint rising into the 70s - the prolonged humid conditions are my main beef about this part of Texas.

Rain Sat - Wed, then a ridge builds in the Southeast that should limit rain through early June. Heatwave will be building in Mississippi, Alabama, Hotlanta, through South Carolina.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 171731
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1231 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

.AVIATION...
Lingering mix of MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR in the next few
hours. Otherwise, look for increasing sse winds and some spotty
waa type shra. Don`t have a mention in the TAFs as they could
occur about anytime between now and Sat morning and impacts will
short lived and negligible. Will keep an eye on trends and amend
if necessary. Ceilings will lower this evening and should hold in
the 1000-2500ft range into mid morning Saturday. Will be watching
for some storm development north/northwest of southeast Texas
during the day Saturday, but they likely won`t make it down to
our terminals until late in the day and overnight Saturday which
is mostly beyond the scope of the 18z TAF package. 47

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT Fri May 17 2019/
Surface analysis this morning shows much better moisture across
SE TX, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide, and
thicker cloud cover overhead. Radar imagery has already began to
show some light showers over our southwestern counties such as
Jackson and Matagorda counties this morning. Leaning towards the
NMM, ARW, and TT WRF regarding PoPs, developing scattered showers
and potentially isolated thunderstorms by this afternoon as the
sea breeze pushes inland, with still the best coverage expected
west of I-45 where there is better moisture. Also would
anticipated the sea breeze to be able to push slightly further
inland today given weaker winds aloft. Otherwise, no major changes
were needed in this morning`s update.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 72 85 71 88 / 20 20 70 60 10
Houston (IAH) 85 74 85 73 87 / 30 20 40 70 40
Galveston (GLS) 82 76 82 76 82 / 20 10 20 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late Saturday night
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[jasons2k]

Summer is here. Time to start watching the sea breeze, PWATS, MJO, and easterly waves for rain...

[srainhoutx]

Summer is here. Time to start watching the sea breeze, PWATS, MJO, and easterly waves for rain...

Speaking of the Madden Julian Oscillation, we should be in a somewhat favorable stage for potential tropical mischief as the end of May nears. I do see the models attempting to spin up something either in the Eastern Pacific or the Western Caribbean as the monsoonal gyre establishes over Central America in about 7 to 10 days.

[Cromagnum]

Mosquito plaque is firing up now. Big, aggressive ones that bite hard in my yard today.

[unome]

an interesting stat from this tweet by Brian Brettschneider, @Climatologist49

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/sta ... 2883337216

There are both 90% Above Normal and 90% Below Normal probabilities for the Lower 48 on the latest CPC 6-10 Day Outlook. This is the 5th such occurrence in the last 5 years [2/13/18, 9/30/18, 10/1/18, & 10/2/18].

[Rip76]

Couple of Gulf streamers popping up.

[jasons2k]

Rain chances tonight went from 70% down to 60%. Downward trend...

[unome]

I might be a little on-edge if I had Meso Discussion 666 over my area

Mesoscale Discussion 0666
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

Areas affected...much of northwest/north Texas into southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 180...

Valid 181151Z - 181345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 180 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind or brief tornadoes persists
within the watch area, and will likely extend downstream into the
remainder of north Texas and southeast Oklahoma later this morning.
As such, watch extensions and/or a new watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A large complex of mixed-mode severe storms continues
to evolve over much of northwest into central TX, with a primary
line of storms from near Wichita Falls southwestward to San Angelo.
Ahead of this line, sporadic supercells have been ongoing with
possible tornadoes earlier.

The main line of storms is expected to dominate the severe threat in
terms of areal coverage, but isolated cells may develop at any time
in the moisture-rich air mass to the east. Early day soundings show
steep lapse rates aloft which will favor hail in any cell. Shear
profiles in the low-levels are quite favorable for rotation as seen
on area VWPs, but hodographs are relatively short above 3 km.
Isolated brief tornadoes will remain possible with any lone cells,
with damaging winds eventually the most likely threat with the line.

The primary tornado threat will be later today over northeast TX,
eastern OK and western AR when low-level shear will be greatest.

..Jewell.. 05/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

[unome]

looking kinda wicked, Abilene to San Angelo areas

https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#HGX,AM ... 90459/1110
https://mping.ou.edu/display/
http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/sp3comphtml5.html

[srainhoutx]

Tornado Watch hoisted until 5 PM well to the NW of Houston...

[Kingwood36]

Any of this supposed to come in around here?

[redneckweather]

Any of this supposed to come in around here?

Not seeing any of the models bringing that line into Southeast Texas which is why it is quiet in here.