February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[tireman4]

Not ready to go that far...( my estimation as an amateur watcher)...I think we still need to watch the models...and pay attention the NWS and pro mets here....

[sleetstorm]

I wonder how much the forecast for this work week may bust? Hmmmmmmmm......

[tireman4]

Is there such a thing as a PDS Winter Storm Warning in the NWS big book of warnings or whatever it is called?

From cheezywxguy on another channel:


Particularly Dangerous Situation. Its more common in severe watches than winter weather...although its really not common at all. I dont think ive ever seen a PDS winter storm warning before.

[sleetstorm]

What does PDS mean in acronym form, tireman?

[tireman4]

What does PDS mean in acronym form, tireman?

Particularly Dangerous Situation.

[tireman4]

I know Ed and no, I have never seen it used in this case. I have seen it used during Tornadic Weather.....

[Katdaddy]

Agree with Tireman....I have never seen a PDS for a Winter weather event.

[srainhoutx]

This will likely be a record storm that will be remembered for many issues. Widespread 20+ snowfall totals and ice as well in the Ohio Valley. The dynamics are going to be amazing to watch unfold. The wind energy will likely be very widespread. Those gusty N winds blowing over that snowpack to our N are going to be mighty chilly regarding the ‘feels like’ temps mid week. Widespread 20+ snowfall totals and ice as well in the Ohio Valley.

[jeff]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

[Ptarmigan]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

This week is very interesting. I think some snow event could happen. First warm to cold and possibly snow.

[wxman666]

Mixed feelings, the local NWS discussion mentions -SN, but don't seem overly excited. However, glass half full, the FWD discussion that mentioned model mishandling of the apparently moisture starved 2004 Christmas Eve Miracle storm offers some hope.

Cold w/o freezing/frozen depresses me.

I think HGX is trying to keep things on the down low for now until they are certain. As we've seen earlier today, Corpus Christi added 20% snow.

[helloitsb]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

any idea on which areas we are looking at? I read in the HGX discussion they were saying a 20% chance of snow showers North but North is a pretty bad description, north of I-10 or North of Conroe?

[Rich]

any idea on which areas we are looking at? I read in the HGX discussion they were saying a 20% chance of snow showers North but North is a pretty bad description, north of I-10 or North of Conroe?[/quote]

I think it is still to early to know which areas may be affected, but I know the common answer in regards to winter precip in Southeast Texas is typically north of I-10. What's funny is the last several times it has snowed down here, it has been the southern areas that have picked up the most snow.

[jeff]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

any idea on which areas we are looking at? I read in the HGX discussion they were saying a 20% chance of snow showers North but North is a pretty bad description, north of I-10 or North of Conroe?

The entire area would likely be a risk or from Lake Charles to Port O Connor to Laredo given the cold air entrenched prior to the moisture arriving. Even S TX could see an IP/SN/RA mix

[helloitsb]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

any idea on which areas we are looking at? I read in the HGX discussion they were saying a 20% chance of snow showers North but North is a pretty bad description, north of I-10 or North of Conroe?

The entire area would likely be a risk or from Lake Charles to Port O Connor to Laredo given the cold air entrenched prior to the moisture arriving. Even S TX could see an IP/SN/RA mix

thank you sir.

[wxman666]

I know there are mixed feelings about TWC here (I enjoy them myself) but they have a pretty good article here on the severe wx aspect of it for Tuesday. Houston is clearly in the red. According to TWC, we will see severe/supercell storms after sunrise....isolated tornadoes possibly a threat.

http://beta.weather.com/outlook/weather ... -30?page=4

[weatherguy425]

Surprised nobody has said anything about the severe storm just to our north?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC471-310130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0005.110131T0045Z-110131T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 645 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR I-45 ABOUT 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CRABBS PRAIRIE...HUNTSVILLE AND HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE
PROPERTY DAMAGE OR SERIOUS INJURY. AVOID WINDOWS AND TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3081 9536 3058 9553 3082 9583 3090 9576
3091 9568 3090 9564 3091 9563
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 307DEG 11KT 3083 9568

[Andrew]

End of this week looks interesting with cold arctic dome in place and some amounts of moisture trying to move into the region. P-type would be all SN with some IP around Matagorda Bay.

any idea on which areas we are looking at? I read in the HGX discussion they were saying a 20% chance of snow showers North but North is a pretty bad description, north of I-10 or North of Conroe?

The entire area would likely be a risk or from Lake Charles to Port O Connor to Laredo given the cold air entrenched prior to the moisture arriving. Even S TX could see an IP/SN/RA mix

I read your email. You seem to feel pretty confident that there will be some sort of moisture available. That is pretty awesome. Thanks for the update again Jeff.

[jeff]

Interesting the meso scale backbuilding over our NE counties this evening. Would expect to see this in the late spring or summer instead of late Jan. Getting some good rains over those drought areas.

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting the meso scale backbuilding over our NE counties this evening. Would expect to see this in the late spring or summer instead of late Jan. Getting some good rains over those drought areas.

They need the rain more than we do.