Re: December 2022
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:27 pm
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We all do.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:53 pmNo, but it comes awfully close/borderline at times. IIRC he called for major arctic blasts a few times last season that never panned out…MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:44 pm Unlike Joe B, I don’t classify Cosgrove as a hype artist.
It’s going to be cold. Everyone has acknowledged that. The question is frigid, or seasonably cold (like 40).
A few days ago I really didn’t see all this ridging popping up off the Pacific Coast like it’s showing now. But if I’m being completely honest I stopped looking at the models a while back cuz everyone was posting them on here and S2K. I want to see less ridging there and more troughing back out to our W and SW. Euro control doesn’t look that bad.brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:32 pm The "flow" as 57 likes to put it appears to be changing pretty soon
Some of the recent operational model runs have a stout positive PNA showing but their ensemble forecasts do not.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:40 pmA few days ago I really didn’t see all this ridging popping up off the Pacific Coast like it’s showing now. But if I’m being completely honest I stopped looking at the models a while back cuz everyone was posting them on here and S2K. I want to see less ridging there and more troughing back out to our W and SW. Euro control doesn’t look that bad.brazoriatx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:32 pm The "flow" as 57 likes to put it appears to be changing pretty soon
That's how I would summarize things - and that's been our story for about a week.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:35 pmIt’s going to be cold. Everyone has acknowledged that. The question is frigid, or seasonably cold (like 40).
I’d love some white stuff falling but that is so hard to do down here. That’s just lagniappe.
I was a kid living in Zion IL during the blizzard of 79. Good times if you were a kid with a snowmobileDoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:25 pm The Chicago Mets (and they don't make many mistakes in the winter, because lives depend on it - the Chicago CUBS on the other hand) have high (80%) confidence that the cold blast next week is Arctic, not Polar or Canadian. This means air from the poles or Siberia and CPF. Arctic air is the COLDEST air we can receive during the winter
Highs there in the 20s early in the week in Chicago, then even colder before Christmas - I used to live in Chicagoland as a kid, and interpret this as expected highs in the single digits or lower.
Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.
So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:
- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?
- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way
- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)
- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?
- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?
- Other moderating factors?
Cool. I lived in Downer's Grove for the Blizzard of '67. We had 24 inches of snowfall. 6-8 ft drifts.NWHouston wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 8:00 pmI was a kid living in Zion IL during the blizzard of 79. Good times if you were a kid with a snowmobileDoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:25 pm The Chicago Mets (and they don't make many mistakes in the winter, because lives depend on it - the Chicago CUBS on the other hand) have high (80%) confidence that the cold blast next week is Arctic, not Polar or Canadian. This means air from the poles or Siberia and CPF. Arctic air is the COLDEST air we can receive during the winter
Highs there in the 20s early in the week in Chicago, then even colder before Christmas - I used to live in Chicagoland as a kid, and interpret this as expected highs in the single digits or lower.
Arctic Air next week - it's likely happening.
So, in my mind the questions left are down to the following:
- Just how cold is the arctic airmass?
- What is the magnitude of high pressure - the higher it is, the more likely it heads this way
- Will the be any blocking N of Texas? (Probably NO)
- What is the Eastward bias of the airmass?
- How much snowpack will there be north of Texas?
- Other moderating factors?
Highs in the 20’s sound fantastic!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:06 pm 00z runs are colder, the CMC has highs in the 20’s and both models are now hinting at another system moving in behind the front![]()
That translates to a high of 29°F here.sambucol wrote: ↑Wed Dec 14, 2022 11:38 pm Joe Bastardi:
Downslope off the Ozarks shadow in anomalies showing up on Canadian. Most likely of the models IMO as it fits the pattern of delivery into Texas Further north Actual temps and apparent temps in northern plains
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 4948404225