July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[sau27]

Man per that 4pm discussion this storm is so ugly not even the NHC knows what to do with it.

[DoctorMu]

One of Barry’s bands is approaching The Houston area.

[srainhoutx]

New Iberia reports a 53 kt gust

[Waded]

Storm band moving through the Crosby area.

[Kingwood36]

Boy, the weather channel is trying to save face..ppl they are interviewing keep asking them why it hasnt rained much there lol

[Texaspirate11]

Friend on Bolivar just told me a small band just went thru

[Cromagnum]

Boy, the weather channel is trying to save face..ppl they are interviewing keep asking them why it hasnt rained much there lol

Because the weather channel is largely full of hacks that rely on hype to get views on TV and clicks online. Last place I would ever go to sololicit helpful info.

[jasons2k]

Band came through here - winds got really intense for awhile. Now it’s calm and so incredibly humid.

[DoctorMu]

Things kinda going to plan. Just need one of those cells to pass through here that are transiting through Madisonville. Probably another 60-90 min of potential action.

[Cromagnum]

Damn, would love to catch a band or two just I can delay the water sprinklers even a little. Looks like I'm gonna get slotted between them.

[DoctorMu]

Boy, the weather channel is trying to save face..ppl they are interviewing keep asking them why it hasnt rained much there lol

Fear the shear. Really a complex forecast. That needed to be emphasized, instead of faux confidence. TBF it's not over yet for central Louisiana.

My concern is the next one, when folks don't heed the warnings.

[Rip76]

Good storm here in Friendswood.

[DoctorMu]

Damn, I just know this Madisonville cell will die and outflow 5 miles from our home.

[DoctorMu]

0.13 in IMBY. Better than nothing!


But not much. Sprinklers on!

[jasons2k]

I had .20” in a gusty band here.

Who knows, the center of Barry is awfully close to Texas - wouldn’t that be ironic if some of the official plots end-up in Texas. We’ll see.

The season is just starting...

[DoctorMu]

I had .20” in a gusty band here.

Who knows, the center of Barry is awfully close to Texas - wouldn’t that be ironic if some of the official plots end-up in Texas. We’ll see.

The season is just starting...

Yeah - the COC appears to be crossing into/approaching Texas south of Hemphill. Barry is defying the models again.

[unome]

we had maybe a quarter inch of rain from Barry yesterday, it was most welcomed

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/B ... rrent_wind

[Rip76]

[srainhoutx]

That IR satellite image almost suggests the center is offshore of Matagorda Bay when in fact it's up about 80 miles SSE of Shreveport. The WPC still has portions of our Region in a Marginal/Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall throughout the day into the overnight hours. The Texas Tech WRF and the NMM continue to be bullish for rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with some isolated totals nearing 4 to 6. Where that band of potential heavy rainfall sets up in not known. The most likely areas would tend to be along and S of the 59 Corridor, but cannot rule out areas N of that general line getting into the action, particularly during the wee hours tomorrow morning as the trough that is aiding the deep convection offshore begins to lift N.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Louisiana...

07142019 mcd0597.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0597
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Areas affected...southern/central LA into western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141335Z - 141930Z

SUMMARY...Narrow axes of heavy rain will continue to focus from
the western and central coast of LA to the LA/MS border through
19Z. Rainfall rates will peak near 3 in/hr across southern
locations with a maximum of 3-6 additional inches by 19Z.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from LCH showed that the persistent
rain band over Vermilion, Lafayette and Iberia Parishes has begun
to slowly shift east over the past hour. Since midnight local
time, 4-7 inches of rain has been reported from this band near and
south of Lafayette with rainfall rates peaking over 2 in/hr at
times. Observations indicate precipitable water values were 2.2 to
2.4 inches across central and southern LA, with the heaviest rain
focusing within 50-100 miles of the coast within the better
available MUCAPE as indicated by the SPC mesoanalysis page. A
secondary but weaker band has attempted to set up from Cameron to
Jefferson Davis Parish.

Going forward over the next 3-6 hours, Tropical Storm Barry is
forecast to slowly move north into northwestern LA by evening
according to the 09Z NHC advisory. This motion will allow axes of
low level confluence centered between 925 and 850 mb to focus
narrow stripes of heavy rain with rainfall rates ranging between
1-3 inches per hour. The higher end of that range should stay
focused farther south where better instability should stay
present. While it is possible for a single band to develop and
stay focused over the same locations for 3-4 consecutive hours, it
is more likely that band persistence will be transient within a
range of locations from central to southern LA into perhaps
western MS.

While diffluence aloft is forecast to increase near the AR/LA
border by 18Z, limited instability should limit rainfall rates
from becoming problematic for flash flooding across northern LA.
Maximum additional rainfall over the next 6 hours (through 1930Z)
is expected to range between 3-6 inches within the most persistent
banding.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...