February Weather Discussion. Wild Winter Storms?

[weatherguy425]

do you mean melt on contact with the ground?

[AggieBuckeye]

Its game on from Waco to College Station to Livingston and points northward. They are really going to see a nice snow event.

Points southward could still see a rare, measurable snow, but nothing like the towns I just mentioned.

If I could put a bullseye on some towns that should see the highest snowfall totals should everything hold to form right now, I'd look at Waco, Madisonville, Buffalo and Crockett.

[wxman57]

Another one for bring on the SNOW....what time is everyone going to get up in the morning to start the "SNOW WATCH" 2/23/2010??????????

No need to get up early, as any snow won't start until around 5pm or so.

[wxman57]

do you mean melt on contact with the ground?

Right, corrected above, thx.

But a burst of heavy snow can still accumulate with surface temps of 34-35 to start with. The falling snow will actually briefly lower the surface temp. Soon as it stops, the temp goes back up, though.

[weatherguy425]

reminds me of the christmas '04 event temps were around 35 and what little snow had fallen melted by about 3 in the morning

[sleetstorm]

How large will the snowflakes be, quarter to silver dollar size?

[hlewis]

How large will the snowflakes be, quarter to silver dollar size?

GOOD LORD I WISH!! I just hope it reaches us over here

[Paul]

I am not to concerned with the dew points right now.

[txsnowmaker]

Tim Heller just gave his latest thoughts: an inch or so for Houston. He was careful to add that just a little added moisture in the air could make a big difference in the projected snowfall amounts.

[texaskaz]

Jabcwb2

I am your neighbor in Memorial Northwest just wanting to say THANK you to your son and to you and your family for the sacrifice of having him away. May you have a lovely Christmas tomorrow!

And in regards to Southern Jews and snow...well I RESEMBLE that remark! Not really!

I am Southern and Native Texan Houstonian Jewess.... and I LOVE LOVE LOVE the snow! We drive TO SEE SNOW!

And if you have never been to Ft Lauderdale or Boca Raton...you WILL think you are in New York! My Italian Brooklyn bus driver at Disneywold told me that one!

Bring it on! I got NO snow in the Dec 4th event

[Andrew]

Haha on 2k Wxman is being the "party popper". I guess it is not always fun when you have to call it as it is.


Anyways my opinion of this is that I think we will get a little more accumulation than forecasted. I mean it doesn't take much extra moisture to change everything. As I read in an article about the Dallas snow storm, it only takes a quarter of an inch more of moisture to make a whole lot more snow. Maybe I am just being hopeful here, but I do have a feeling that it won't be a bust this time.

[txsnowmaker]

FYI courtesy of chron.com:

Another source, Fred Schmude of Impact Weather, said the snowfall could be even wider in scope. His prediction:

Atmospheric data indicates rain will likely mix with or change to sleet or wet snow across Montgomery and possibly Northern Harris County in between 3pm and 6pm Tuesday and build quickly south toward the Texas Coast tomorrow evening.

Snow amounts are forecast to average from 1-2 inches north and west of Downtown Houston and from a Trace to perhaps as high as 1 inch south and east of Downtown Houston and right toward the coast.


Source: http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... er_11.html

[Mr. T]

What bothers me quite a bit as far as any accumulating snow in Houston tomorrow are the current temps/dew points to our northwest. I don't recall ever seeing a significant snowfall with such warm temps and dew points over a large area the day before the snow. I think that the 18Z GFS is too generous with the southward extent of snow. Surface temps in most of Houston may melt it as fast as it reaches the ground.

December 9th, 2008

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us1209.php

Now, if that upper air pattern was put in front of my face and you told me we'd see 1.4" of snow, I'd laugh in your face. Look how warm it is ahead of that system. 850s are nearly to 15C, and surface temperatures are near 80. And of course, 1.4" of snow fell the next day.

Current temps and dewpoints just do not concern me right now. On February 8th, 1973, morning temperatures were in the mid 60s (high was 65). High temperatures were near 80 degrees the previous 4 days. Temperatures fell into the 30s in the afternoon, and snow began to fall AND accumulate. The snow accumulated to 1.4".

[txsnowmaker]

Haha on 2k Wxman is being the "party popper". I guess it is not always fun when you have to call it as it is.


Anyways my opinion of this is that I think we will get a little more accumulation than forecasted. I mean it doesn't take much extra moisture to change everything. As I read in an article about the Dallas snow storm, it only takes a quarter of an inch more of moisture to make a whole lot more snow. Maybe I am just being hopeful here, but I do have a feeling that it won't be a bust this time.

According to Tim Heller, it only takes 0.05 inches of moisture to produce half an inch of snow. For more on this and to see his snowfall prediction which was on air a short while ago, here is the link: http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

[wxman57]

Tim Heller just gave his latest thoughts: an inch or so for Houston. He was careful to add that just a little added moisture in the air could make a big difference in the projected snowfall amounts.

It's really so difficult to say how much will accumulate and where because of the marginal surface temps projected. How much accumulates will depend very much on how heavy the snow gets at times. A steady lighter snow, even with the same amount of precip falling as a shorter heavier burst, will likely melt as it hits the ground. Hope for the best (some significant accumulations), but don't be surprised if most of it melts as it lands. I just have a big knot in my stomach because of the current temps/dew points around here. Wait, I think I'm just hungry for dinner. See y'all later...

[randybpt]

looking at temps and dew points to our north has me very concerned this could bust, unless there is another surge of cold air i don't see this as a wide area event. i'm not trying to rain on everyone parade just facts. imho if we don't cloud over before the sun gets up in the morning i believe we could warm to a point that the warmer temps get trapped under the cloud cover just like a cloudy night holds temp up. this is very crucial timing event one thing out of wack and we get nothing but a cold rain.

[wxman57]

According to Tim Heller, it only takes 0.05 inches of moisture to produce half an inch of snow. For more on this and to see his snowfall prediction which was on air a short while ago, here is the link: http://weatherblog.abc13.com/

That amount varies considerably according to how "dry" the snow is. For a dry snow, the ration of 10:1 typically applies, meaning 0.1" liquid = 1" snow. However, with our last snowfall, typical rations were 5:1 to 7:1, averaging around 6:1, so 0.5" liquid would mean less than 1/2" snow, maybe closer to 1/4 for big wet snowflakes.

[Mr. T]

December 9th, 2008

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us1209.php

Now, if that upper air pattern was put in front of my face and you told me we'd see 1.4" of snow, I'd laugh in your face. Look how warm it is ahead of that system. 850s are nearly to 15C, and surface temperatures are near 80. And of course, 1.4" of snow fell the next day.

Current temps and dewpoints just do not concern me right now. On February 8th, 1973, morning temperatures were in the mid 60s (high was 65). High temperatures were near 80 degrees the previous 4 days. Temperatures fell into the 30s in the afternoon, and snow began to fall AND accumulate. The snow accumulated to 1.4".

The advantage we have with this system are the cool temperatures we have had all month long. I doubt one day in the 70s on sunday really did too much to ground temperatures. Unlike the last event and the 2008 event, we haven't had a long period of above average temperatures before this event. Also, during the 2009 event, dewpoints were very low and there was a lot of dry air to overcome. This is why snowfall totals were relatively lower than forecast. Virga existed throughout most of the day, especially north of town. The higher dewpoints to me indicates there will be less dry air to overcome, so I don't think we should have such a big problem with virga. This system is overall more dynamic and moist than the 2009 event, and I think that will play to our advantage.

Of course, surface temperatures could be an issue, but if we fall into the mid 30s with heavy enough precip, it will not matter. And that is the million dollar question. Will we see any heavy precip bursts?

[Ptarmigan]

That amount varies considerably according to how "dry" the snow is. For a dry snow, the ration of 10:1 typically applies, meaning 0.1" liquid = 1" snow. However, with our last snowfall, typical rations were 5:1 to 7:1, averaging around 6:1, so 0.5" liquid would mean less than 1/2" snow, maybe closer to 1/4 for big wet snowflakes.

I did a calculation what is the average ratio of snow in Houston. It is 6.9:1 or 7:1.

[TexasMetBlake]

FYI----soundings DO NOT support sleet. Please pass this little message on to all your friends. There is no SLEET and SNOW this go around. It is either rain or it is snow.