January 2025

[tireman4]

Iceresistance posted this ( he used to post here; he is a freshman Met student at OU)

[tireman4]

A good write up from Steve McCauley on Facebook about the snowstorm and model predictions.

[biggerbyte]

57 is spot on. We just went through a huge no way after all of the hype. Models are still basically useless until darn near now casting. It would be foolish to buy into it again.

[tireman4]

A major Arctic blast could cover most of the United States with frigid conditions around Jan. 20


https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1877702180435874053

[Stratton20]

biggerbyte be careful, cant always take what wxman57 says too seriously lol, hes the heat miser for a reason, and 2. That is completely false, arctic cold is coming, when ensembles lock in on a pattern, it’s happening , operational runs agreeing as well, we are going to get colder than what we have seen this week, as for precipitation, well we have a long time to watch for that

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’m ready for some punishing cold. This place is a hell hole 9 months of the year, weather wise.

Drop the Siberian hammers on our head again!

[Stratton20]

Yes please! Although Id rather not have a complete grdi failure again

[jasons2k]

In all seriousness, regardless of what the models say, the upper-air pattern evolution over the next 10-15 days appears to favor a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains.

Enjoy it while it lasts though

[tireman4]

Heavy Snow Forecast ( Experimental)

[snowman65]

Heavy Snow Forecast ( Experimental)

Just a repeat of what we just had.

[Stratton20]

Not really, this is a completely different pattern, unlike this storm system that didnt have true arctic air, we will have siberian air in place, any shortwave that moves into that with lift, that would definitely be frozen precipitation for a majority of the state, noaa does favor above normal precipitation at the same time the arctic air in place, gotta watch this pattern for sure

[tireman4]

772
FXUS64 KHGX 102023
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
223 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

The coastal low that brought along rain yesterday has continued to
move off to the east today, resulting in dry conditions across the
area. A mid-upper level trough is cutting across the state, and with
residual moisture lying just above the 925mb level, this has
resulted in increased cloud cover across the area. Water Vapor
imagery shows dry air moving in from the west in the low-level,
while mid and upper level water vapor imagery shows a good amount of
moisture still in place (basically, the clouds are mid-high level
clouds).

Cloud cover will continue tonight, decreasing in coverage closer to
sunrise. NNW winds will continue to usher in cold air leaving lows
to drop to below freezing for much of the area. Coastal locations
and the Metro will hover around or just above freezing temperatures.
Remember to protect your pets, pipes, and plants!

One thing to note is that while dry air is working its way into the
area at the surface, residual moisture combined with freezing
temperatures my result in a brief instance of freezing fog just
before sunrise. This would mainly be for the far north, Piney Woods
region, and would likely be patchy. In any case want to make mention
of that potential for situational awareness, and not expecting any
significant impacts.

Saturday will be slightly warmer as winds transition to SE winds
through the course of the day, bringing warmer air back into the
area. Highs for Saturday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday night lows will be a bit warmer with temperatures south of
I-10 in the upper 30s to low 40s along the coast. Temperatures north
of I-10 will range from around freezing across the Piney Woods and
Brazos Valley to the mid 30s closer to the Metro.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Light southeasterly flow to start the day on Sunday will lead to
warmer temperatures and increased moisture across the region.
Afternoon high temperatures will be the mid to upper 50s for most of
the area with partly sunny skies across the B-CS area through the
Piney Woods, but mostly cloudy skies expected along the coast. Could
see some isolated light rain showers late Sunday morning through the
afternoon along the coast as a weak coastal low moves through the
central Gulf. This system will be far enough off the coast to not
bring the strong wind gusts and heavy rain like yesterday`s coastal
low. A weak cold front slides through the region Sunday evening
ushering in slightly cooler and drier conditions ending the chance
of showers. Despite the cold front moving through the area, low
temperatures Sunday night will not be all that different from
Saturday night lows with near freezing temperatures north of
Huntsville, then mid 30s to low 40s for the rest of the region.

High pressure centered over the Red River Valley will persist
through midweek before slowly moving to the northeast. This will
bring continued cool and dry conditions across SE Texas with high
temperatures in the 50s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s
(though the Piney Woods region will likely see continued low
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s). Slightly warmer
temperatures are possibly by Thursday as that high pressure moves
away and a warmer/higher PWAT air mass begins to slide in from the
south.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1038 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

MVFR prevailing area wide at this time. Expect MVFR CIGs to
continue through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight.
Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east
beginning around 05Z. Winds will be out of the NW at 10-15 kts
this afternoon with gusts to near 25 kts at times. Winds will
relax later this evening to around 10 kts, becoming light and
variable overnight into Saturday morning. For CLL/UTS/CXO, there
is medium confidence on patchy fog early Saturday morning.
Probabilistic guidance shows a low chance of VSBYs dipping below
5 SM. I want to mention that temperatures in these locations are
expected to dip below freezing early Saturday morning and there is
the potential for a short-lived and isolated instance of freezing
fog. Confidence on this occurring is low; however, wanted to
mention for situational awareness.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Moderate northwesterly winds of 20-25kt with occasional higher
gusts will persist through this evening, so the Small Craft Advisory
will continue through midnight. Seas, especially in the offshore
waters, will remain 6-9ft through midnight as well and will lower to
2-3ft by Saturday afternoon. The SCA may need to be extended into
early Saturday morning for the 20-60nm waters due to the wave
heights. Either way, small craft will likely have to exercise
caution in the coastal waters through Saturday morning.

Light, variable winds are expected to start the day on Saturday and
eventually become onshore around 10-15kt by Sunday morning. A
passing, weak coastal low will bring some isolated showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday evening. A weak
cold front moving through the waters late Sunday into Monday morning
will usher in moderate to strong northerly winds (around 20kt with
gusts to 25kt) through Monday night. Seas are likely to increase
back to around 4-6ft Sunday night and persist through much of next
week.

A combination of low astronomical tides and offshore winds will lead
to abnormally low tides late tonight into Saturday morning with low
tide at around -1ft MLLW. Because of this, a Low Water Advisory has
been issued between 3-9am.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 27 54 32 57 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 32 53 36 57 / 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 35 52 45 59 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.

Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

[Cpv17]

Heavy Snow Forecast ( Experimental)

Just a repeat of what we just had.

It’s different. Both the PNA and EPO are more favorable for our area this time around.

[DoctorMu]

We already have a deep south winter storm..it's just in north texas lol

North Carolina is getting slammed

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Heavy Snow Forecast ( Experimental)

Just a repeat of what we just had.

It’s different. Both the PNA and EPO are more favorable for our area this time around.

Which is why I think Hou metro probably sees a ice storm in a set up like this. Colder air, SE ridge, yup, sleet and freezing rain.

My general area and west towards SA and Austin would probably be far enough removed from the ridge for significant snow, and DocMu certainly would.

[biggerbyte]

I'm not sure 57 is saying it's not going to happen. He is suggesting that we be careful of big fancy words and forever model flop flipping. The big word with this one was "Polar Vortex". It was supposed to be so big it plunges well into Mexico. Now it's "Siberian"... LOL

Yes, this round looks promising.. Fool me once.....

[Stratton20]

Excerpt this cold outbreak isnt being driven by the polar vortex, its more driven by the - EPO alaskan ridge and the - WPO / - PNA, while wxman57 is correct in that we have to be careful with the operational runs this far out, the ensembles have been consistently getting colder and colder each run, CPC is sold and Noaa is in on it too, its coming

[tireman4]

8-14 Day Outlook

[DoctorMu]

A major Arctic blast could cover most of the United States with frigid conditions around Jan. 20


https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1877702180435874053

I'm not sure about snow or a wintry mix, but it will be colder than the last setup.

[DoctorMu]

In all seriousness, regardless of what the models say, the upper-air pattern evolution over the next 10-15 days appears to favor a discharge of arctic air straight down the plains.

Enjoy it while it lasts though

The cold is not diverting east this time.