February 2022

[jasons2k]

Did you cover those plants, Jasons2k?

I didn’t cover them because it was so windy. I should get some of those stakes. It’s ok, they’ll come back. I put all my potted and hanging plants in the garage so they are fine.

[sambucol]

Did you cover those plants, Jasons2k?

I didn’t cover them because it was so windy. I should get some of those stakes. It’s ok, they’ll come back. I put all my potted and hanging plants in the garage so they are fine.

That’s rough losing your plants. I’m sorry that happened. We used bricks and concrete pieces to hold down the cloths and tarps. Really anything that had weight was fair game to keep the covers from flying off the plants. Fortunately, it worked. It was a lot of work, too.

[jasons2k]

Did you cover those plants, Jasons2k?

I didn’t cover them because it was so windy. I should get some of those stakes. It’s ok, they’ll come back. I put all my potted and hanging plants in the garage so they are fine.

That’s rough losing your plants. I’m sorry that happened. We used bricks and concrete pieces to hold down the cloths and tarps. Really anything that had weight was fair game to keep the covers from flying off the plants. Fortunately, it worked. It was a lot of work, too.

Thank you! Yes, it is a lot of work, especially if there is wind to worry about. The perils of growing Zone 10 plants in Zone 8. Most years we get lucky, but the last few years have brought us some brutal, killing freezes. They tend to come in bunches so hopefully we can get a break now for awhile. I don’t like driving around and seeing dead palm stumps. Nobody likes the sight of death.

Incidentally, all of the date palms in Portofino Plaza have succumbed to last year’s killer freeze. Several of them tried to come-back and put out some new fronds over the summer, but even those are now turning brown and rotting out. With the palms now dead and some of the recent (generic) facelifts the new tenants are doing, the plaza is completely losing its unique charm. It’s slowly transforming into just another strip center. It’s almost criminal what the developers are allowing to happen there.

Anyway, here are some pics of what used to be. It was beautiful while it lasted.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, the wind is a real problem up here in CLL. Advection is even greater than Houston Winter or Spring. Use some landscaping bricks last winter on some of the new vegetation.

23°F + major advection probably did in a few small bushes this year to due desiccation. One of the reasons I don't mind ice and snow when there is cold here.

Ironically, then this year's milder cold without a layer of ice except on some ground and trees has killed more weeds than last year's 5°C. It's kind of reset the lawn! Time to put down some pre-emergence weed killer with a little more confidence!

[jasons2k]

I see a few toasted dandelions.
The freeze didn’t do a thing to my dollar weed or annual bluegrass though.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS does show some moisture to work with ( valentines day potential system) does start to hint at some wintry weather, though keeps it in north and central texas at this time

[don]

Look at the low heights the 0Z GFS shows for the Valentines week system.0Z CMC looks interesting as well.

[Stratton20]

Don interesting set up by both models, wouldnt some of that rain in se texas on the GFS be snow? Looks like the 540 line is in se texas on that run

[don]

The GFS doesn't show snow because the precip outruns the colder air,but its a good trend non the less.

[Stratton20]

Mean average of the GEFS (06z run) not only a few members show anything at this time, but a trend is a trend

[mcheer23]

FWIW

[don]

12Z ICON.Anybody want some snow? LOL

[don]

A closer look at the ICON.

[Stratton20]

Possibly a sneaky setup ? We will see

[mcheer23]

Nothing on the 12z GFS.

[don]

Yep the 12Z GFS has the system more sheared.If everything can come together this could be a nice setup for snow here.Interesting days ahead maybe.

[Stratton20]

Fingers crossed for a surprise system like back in 2017, hopefully mother nature can give us a treat ive always wanted to be oit on campus here when snow is around

[don]

Fingers crossed for a surprise system like back in 2017, hopefully mother nature can give us a treat ive always wanted to be oit on campus here when snow is around

If it does pan out i wouldn't really call it a surprised system though.As models have been showing this system in one form or another for a while now.(since atleast last Wednesday)They've just been back and forth on the strength/track/moisture of the system which is normal in this range.

[mcheer23]

GEFS there's maybe 2 or 3 members that support frozen precip.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081112
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
512 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

High pressure building in from the NW will continue to bring
clear skies and VFR conditions today and into Wednesday. Winds
will shift from north to south by the afternoon, remaining light
as this area of high pressure passes over SE Texas. A weak and dry
cold front may develop some high clouds over our northern
counties Wednesday morning, though skies will remain mostly clear
elsewhere. High pressure will reestablish itself behind the weak
front, with winds shifting towards the W/SW. 03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CST Tue Feb 8 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

High pressure over central TX will build E/SE through our area
today, with light northerly winds shifting towards the south by the
afternoon. Dry conditions and sunny skies will allow for decent
radiational heating, bringing max temperatures into the mid 60s
during the day. Clear conditions will continue into tonight as high
pressure moves offshore into the Gulf. Another cold night is
expected, though south to southwest winds will keep temperatures a
bit warmer than the previous nights. Overnight lows will be in the
30s and 40s.

A weak and dry cold front will briefly pass north of our CWA by
Wednesday morning. No impacts are expected, aside from some high
clouds. High pressure will reestablish over the region, allowing for
calm weather to continue through the short term. Light W/SW winds
will continue through Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies will help warm
high temperatures into the upper 60s. Lows will be a tad warmer, but
should still be in the 30s and 40s overnight.

03


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

With surface high pressure persisting along with northwesterly flow
aloft...there`s not much to talk about weatherwise until the
weekend. But I`ll find a way to throw in a few weather nuggets!
As a result of the northwesterly flow aloft, Southeast Texas is
right in the pipeline for shortwaves to pass through. On Thursday
morning, this will already be in progress with PVA being
established ahead of a shortwave trough. However, since moisture
availability remains sparse, this will only result in a brief
increase in upper-level clouds. Clouds clear out again going into
Friday after the shortwave trough ejects eastward. As far as
temperatures go for the end of the work week, we`ll have a few
spots reaching the low 70s on Thursday with most locations making
it into the low 70s on Friday to mark the cap of the warming
trend. Don`t worry cold weather fans, we`ll still have lows in the
30s/40s overnight thanks to the prevailing dry air...and there`s
additional cold air on the way too!

Confidence continues to increase on a strong cold front pushing into
Southeast Texas on Saturday. This front is brought in by a deeper
mid/upper level trough that immediately follows the trough
mentioned in the first paragraph. GFS/ECMWF have come into better
agreement on timing with a Saturday morning FROPA, but the
Canadian is now the outlier with a Saturday evening FROPA. Leaned
towards the former scenario, so Saturday`s temperatures have been
nudged down a bit below guidance to show highs in the low to mid
60s. Global models are now in agreement on enough moisture in
place for rain showers to develop ahead of and along the frontal
boundary. PWATs generally surge to 0.9"-1.1" across Southeast
Texas (with the higher values closer to the coast), and this range
contains the 75th percentile for this time of the year (1.05").
So, there`s certainly enough moisture to justify throwing in
scattered chance PoPs for Saturday. Model trends continue to point
toward substantially colder air behind this front along with
strong surface high pressure (1034-1037mb) quickly building in.
NBM guidance is still running quite a bit warmer than the
deterministic models for Sunday`s high temperatures, so I
adjusted these down to reflect highs in the 50s.

Onshore flow and and a mid/upper level ridge quickly establish
themselves on Monday leading to a quick warm-up with highs
approaching the 70s once again early next week. Models depict an
upper-level low moving over the southwestern CONUS by Tuesday and
establishing southwesterly flow aloft for our area. With moisture
increasing due to persistent onshore flow at the surface and PVA
becoming increasingly prevalent, rain showers may develop as
early as Tuesday night. For now, I settled on 20%-30% PoPs with
this being quite a ways out.

Batiste


.MARINE...

Northeasterly winds will continue to subside throughout the day as
surface high pressure builds in over the Southern Plains. This
ushers us into a period of benign conditions that persists into
Saturday when a cold front is expected to push through. Rain showers
are possible ahead of and along the frontal boundary, but the main
impacts will be moderate to strong northerly winds and increasing
seas in the wake of the front. Expect these conditions to prevail
into Sunday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 36 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 64 39 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 59 47 61 49 61 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Brokamp