January 2026

[DoctorMu]

We're not there yet, but...

[tireman4]

So far so good ..behaving as it were

[jasons2k]

IMG_7273.png

(2.08 MiB) Not downloaded yet

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East Texas...Western and Northern Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100445Z - 101000Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and localized 2-3" totals given some short-duration training potential for flanking cell development. Greater soil saturation/lower FFG, north and proximity to Houston metro/urban runoff to south pose localized possible incident or two for flash flooding through overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 10.3um IR loop depict a few stronger thunderstorm clusters extending from near Victoria northeastward across Southeast TX toward a weak surface low near KOCH. East of the low, a west to east stationary front crosses near I-20 and recently saturated upper soil profiles given broad 1-2" totals throughout the day. Surface to boundary layer southerly flow continues to advect upper 60s/low 70s Tds with modestly unstable air mass in the warm sector with MLCAPE values remaining at or above 1000 J/kg with spots of 2000 J/kg near the Upper TX coast. Upper level jet streak continues to expand and strengthen across the Ozark Plateau though broad right entrance ascent is providing strong divergence aloft and supporting the slightly backed and 20-25kts of low-level jet flow to obliquely intersect the slowly eastward advancing cold front.

While mid to upper levels remain dry, the anomalous moisture remains though 700mb with over 1.5" and spots nearing 1.75" within the warm sector. This results in solid moisture flux convergence and solid instability to maintain/expand the convective coverage though likely still in a scattered nature over the next few hours. Flux convergence is supporting moderately efficient rainfall production with 1.5-1.75"/hr rates. Forward progression will continue to be a limiting factor toward 2-3" streaks of rainfall totals across the area of concern, especially as the core of the jet (and therefore the right entrance divergence) shift northeastward and direct circulation allows for faster progression of the cold front through the TX Coastal Plain.

Overall totals are not a tremendous concern across the Coastal Plain, with a solid exception of the hydrophobic urban/suburban corridor of Houston. The sheer rates would be the greatest potential and even slight probability of localized 2"/hr rates may be sufficient to result in localized flooding concerns. Further north across the northern Piney Woods of E TX into Northern LA, the recent rainfall will locally result in above normal runoff, and compromised FFG values of less than 2"/hr and 3"/3hr remain capable of being exceeded again. As such, a few incidents of localized flash flooding will remain possible through the overnight period as the front presses through from west to east.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX

[DoctorMu]

Seasonable temps, mostly sunny skies for the week ahead in the NW territories. No complaints.

Hints of potential wintry mix-chief N of Hwy 1*5 next weekend on the 12z's. We'll see.