October- Cool Mornings & Mild Days To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
ticka1
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srainhoutx wrote:The first ligit fall cold front of the fall season is scheduled to arrive Monday into Texas. The front should pass quietly (little to no rain) Tuesday morning/mid day. HGX is even hinting some possible upper 30's in the out lying areas Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Gusty NW-N winds and very dry condition should bring Red Flag Warnings for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rapid fire growth could become a real problem, yet again.
Welcome back Srainhoutx - hope you have a speedy recovery and back with us weather geeks! This is music to my ears! A coldfront with temps perhaps in the 40's or even 30's around SE Texas! I have been waiting patiently for this!! Woot Woot!
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I have a question for the pros out here on this forum.
Alright, so the past two winters here in SE Texas, and well, Texas in general has been some of the coldest two winters on record. Not all time coldest winters, but we've broken many records over the past two years. I mean, last winter we were in the teens for like 3 consecutive nights. Well, on the other hand, the past two summers has been some of the warmest summers we've had in a long time. And obviously this summer stands out more than last summer, but I remember summer of 2010 was pretty warm itself. Now, with that being said. We have been in a strong La Nina pattern and the past two years, meteorologist have predicted that the south, especially Texas will have a warm and dry winter. However, like I said before, we have had some of the coldest winters two years in a row now with La Nina really in effect last year. They did get the 'dry' part right. It seems to me every time we have a warm summer, the colder the winter will be. I've seen patterns of that.
So my question is, how can meteorologist sit back and say for now, the third year in a row that the south, and mainly Texas will have a dry and WARM winter. In other words, "way above average". I mean, they could be right this year. But majoring in meteorology and noticing these 'patterns' I would think some new research would need to be developed and looked at as experts have been relatively wrong these past two years.
What brings me to asking me this is because, yes, we have cold fronts in October around this time of the year. But in middle October temps in the mid to high 70s? Even some news outlets putting 72 degrees for the high next Wednesday. With lows in the mid to upper 40s. Again, with some news outlets putting 42 degrees by mid-next week. This is pretty unusual, and I'm just starting to raise an eyebrow again if this is another sign to come of another harsh, brutal, cold winter here for Texas. Anybody check out the gulf-water temps too recently? Cooling down pretty quickly.

So for any of the pros out here on this forum, I would just like your opinion and logic on this and what you think this winter could bring not looking at any other winter predictions. (Like Farmers, NOAA, etc..)
I am actually doing a speech on this in my Communication class in early November. So any feedback will greatly help on that part as well.
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srainhoutx
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The first Canadian cold front of the season is still on track for arrival very early Tuesday morning. Strong gusty winds in the 20-30 mph + range and very dry conditions will create another round of extreme fire danger, so be careful out there. Temps still look very fall like with night time lows ranging from the upper 30's in the outlying areas to low to mid 40's elsewhere, except right along the Coast where even some upper 40's could occur. Daytime temps will warm to the low 70's with very comfortable dew points. This weather should hold into next weekend. Dry pattern continues with no real rain chances in sight with a prolonged NW upper flow as a deep trough digs along the East Coast.
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Historic drought killing trees across Texas, changing landscape for years to come
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ ... story.html

The drought has more impact than Ike or any hurricane. If the drought continues, water will be scarce and Texas's economy could shrink.
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happy Fall y'all ! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

highs in the 70s !!!!!!!!!!!! woohoo :D
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front will move across TX tonight and early Tuesday

Fire Weather Watch in effect for all areas on Tuesday, with Red Flag Warnings likely

Extreme to critical fire weather day expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday

Strong cold front with a good shot of cold air moving southward through the plains this morning as the upper level pattern amplifies across the western US carving out a deepening downstream central US trough. Cold front is currently moving through the panhandle of TX and will reach the TX coast by mid morning on Tuesday. Impressive pressure rises behind the front will result in a period of very strong winds especially near the coast Tuesday morning with the frontal passage. Winds of 40-50mph will be possible along the middle coast into S TX as the front passes. A hot and humid day today will be replaced with strong cold air advection with temperatures falling at least 10-15 degrees with the frontal passage. Expect temperatures to start Tuesday in the lower 60’s with strong NW winds and only recover into the lower to mid 70’s by afternoon. Winds will remain strong Tuesday night so that will keep lows from bottoming out, but will still see widespread 40’s…it will feel cool with the winds. High pressure builds nearly overhead on Wednesday afternoon and winds will go calm after sunset on Wednesday night. With forecasted dewpoints in the mid to upper 30’s, overnight lows will tumble into the low to mid 40’s most locations by Thursday AM. A few protected and typically cool locations could see a little frost Thursday AM.

Guidance is showing a thin line of showers with the front early Tuesday and this appears reasonable given the strong forcing. There is little deep moisture to work with, so do not expect much rainfall, maybe a .10 of an inch at best. More favorable conditions for rain appear to be across east and NE TX where thunderstorms will be possible, but the SW extent will be greatly limited by lacking moisture and strong mid level capping.

Fire Weather:
Big concern will be fire weather Tuesday and again on Wednesday. Near critical to critical conditions appear likely on Tuesday as very strong winds and lower RH combine with dead/dry fuels from the ongoing drought. Winds will rapidly increase into the 15-25mph sustained range by mid morning Tuesday with gust to 30-40mph by early afternoon. Winds of this magnitude greatly increases the threat of power line starts from tree limbs rubbing lines or lines arcing in the wind…this is similar to the Labor Day weekend starts of several of those fires. Afternoon RH will fall to less than 30% across the entire region.

While fine fuels (grasses) have greened some with the recent rainfall, the larger ladder and canopy fuels remain extremely dry and capable of fast and hot burning. ERC values remain very high over much of eastern TX with pines that have dried. Greener finer fuels may help mitigate some of the potential starts, but any fire that does get started and gets off the ground into the ladder and tree canopies will burn very quickly given the low RN and very strong winds. Threat will be high for crowning and long lasting crown runs especially in pine areas. Ground operations will be extremely difficult given the high potential for rapid forward motions, forward spotting, and breaching on containment lines. Air operations will be affected by the strong winds and some aircraft may be grounded.

95L:
An area of low pressure now over the SE Gulf of Mexico continues to become better organized and a tropical cyclone appears to be forming. Deep convection has developed near/over the center with decent upper level outflow in all directions. The system is moving toward the NE at around 10mph and this motion will continue bringing a possible tropical storm to the SW coast of FL in the next 24-36 hours.

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srainhoutx
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The cold front is accelerating S this evening through the Panhandle. Wind gusts in the 60's range have been rather common as the front passes. Tomorrow will 'feel' much different than what we have experienced over the past 6 months. Enjoy the change... ;)

http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/latestobs/current.html
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Red tide bloom largest in a decade
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas ... 223455.php

Droughts cause red tide for coastal Texas.
unome
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weatherguy425 wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DC11rep5Es

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woFN7rNlpCk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1S135cVQPd4

I can verify those gusts! Some videos of the dust storm that blew through!
thanks for those links - found this from CIMSS - it goes thru 03:15Z:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp ... t_anim.gif

Image
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srainhoutx
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A very nice and breezy fall day is on tap across Texas today. Red Flag Warnings are hoisted, so increased fire danger is the main concern. The models suggest a short wave in the NW flow for the coming weekend which may increase rain chances slightly for Sunday. Looking a bit further out, a stronger front with cooler weather that what we will see with this Canadian front may be in the offing near the 28th or so just in time of all those ghosts and goblins making their annual rounds for treats. We will see.
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10182011 00Z Euro GFS Compare 500mb test8.gif
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redneckweather
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Glad to have ya back srain and hope everything is good with you.

Is this what you are talking about? I picked this up off the DFW discussion.


BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS
NOTORIOUSLY INCONSISTENT 10 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE STRENGTH ADVERTISED BY THE 18/00Z ECMWF...THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
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wxman57
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It's always a sad time of the year when daytime highs dip below 80 degrees... :-(
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srainhoutx
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redneckweather wrote:Glad to have ya back srain and hope everything is good with you.

Is this what you are talking about? I picked this up off the DFW discussion.


BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS
NOTORIOUSLY INCONSISTENT 10 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE STRENGTH ADVERTISED BY THE 18/00Z ECMWF...THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
That's the one, redneckweather. The Canadian has it as well, so we'll see...and yes, I'm feeling better everyday. 2 more weeks of recovery and iv antibiotics and this chapter should be closed. Again, thanks for all the well wishes, gang. It's good to be home. :mrgreen:
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srainhoutx
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What a nice cool fall morning. Lower 50's seem to be the theme as we start the day and Red Flag Warnings are still in flying. A slow moderation should begin as we near the weekend with a very slight chance of some rain on Sunday from a short wave in the NW flow. The next in a series of Cold fronts have slowed down by a day or so, but still suggest cooler air than what we have now will filter into TX next Wednesday/Thursday bringing the coldest air of the fall season so far. We will see.
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10192011 gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif
10192011 00Z Euro GFS Compare 500 mb test8.gif
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wxman57
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Euro and Canadian completely disagree with the GFS cold solution for next week. They're considerably warmer with a trof hanging back to our west (wetter, too). Perhaps somewhere in between is more likely.
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srainhoutx
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What's this I see from the HPC? A Blue Norther...wxman57 won't be happy... :P

00Z AND 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF CMC/00Z ECMWF AND THE 06Z GFS
WHICH IS A MODIFIED VERSION OF GFS ALL INDICATE A THREAT FOR A
HEAVY OCT SNOW EVENT IN THE CO FRONT RANGE MID WEEK ALONG WITH A
CA SANTA ANA OFFSHORE EVENT AND EASTWARD A TX BLUE NORTHER WILL
PLUNGE TEMPERATURES THRU THE SRN PLAINS WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
TUES AND WED.
NO CHANGES MADE TO AFTN FINALS FROM MORNING PRELIMS.
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Yeah, srain. Earlier runs of the GFS were shopwing the potential for a mix precip event in lubbock!
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wxman57
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I prefer the much warmer Euro and Canadian runs for next week.
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:I prefer the much warmer Euro and Canadian runs for next week.
Of course you do. Don't be silly. You've probably already plugged in that little heater under your desk... :D
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