April Discussions: Drought Continues/Driest April On Record!

[Andrew]

Euro suggests we might have a better chance of some rain next Thursday night/Friday morning when compared to the GFS, but that's about it. Dry pattern continues for the next 2 weeks. Probably only a few sprinkles this Sunday night/early Monday as the weak front passes.

That is fine with me. Concrete was laid down for the new pool. In a more serious note though this drought is really hurting the yard.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Day 3 Update:

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PROBABLE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN KS SWD INTO ERN OK AND ECNTRL TX
WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST.
DUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
EVENING FROM WCNTRL MO SWD INTO NW AR AND NE OK. THE THREAT SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED IN SE OK AND ECNTRL TX BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
STILL SUPPORT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

[CAK]

Heard thunder in the distance for about five minutes at about 1:35 here in Kingwood, although nothing on radar. Looks like clouds are trying to break through the cap.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like clouds are trying to break through the cap.

We are getting closer. Almost hit 90F today (College Station was in the low 90's) and that seems to be the current thinking regarding temps to break that cap.

[Ptarmigan]

We reached our first 90 degree this year at KIAH.
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIAH.html

Earliest since 1996. The average date is May 6th from 1921 to 2011.

[texoz]

Austin hit 90 on March 23rd, 93 on April 1st and 92 today.

It's going to be a long, hot summer if we don't get some rain.

[srainhoutx]

HGX mentions rain chances may increase depending on what guidance offers today...

SUNDAY STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE PROMISING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER SRN CA SWINGS EAST AND SHOULD BE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SETX WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE. LATEST 00Z RUNS INDICATING THAT THE CAP SHOULD BEGIN
TO ERODE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BULGES EASTWARD INTO THE NW CWA LATE SUNDAY EVENING TO
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF
WHILE THE NAM IS BONE DRY WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP. THE FRONT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 12Z MONDAY.
HAVE NUDGED UP THE POPS A LITTLE BUT CONFIDENCE ISN`T THAT HIGH
YET BUT IF 12Z RUNS KEEP THIS SCENARIO IN PLACE THEN PERHAPS
THINGS WILL BE LOOKING UP FOR THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVED OFF THE COAST BETWEEN 7 AM AND NOON WITH VERY DRY AIR
POURING INTO THE AREA. IF NO RAIN OCCURS THEN WILDFIRE DANGER COULD BE
VERY HIGH.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS as well as the ECMWF continue to suggest a chance of showers/storms late tomorrow into Monday. Both models also suggest some mid week rain chances as well. Fingers crossed that they are right and the cap weakens...

FWD:

ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES INITIALLY WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP...THEY WILL BECOME LESS UNSTABLE DURING THE DAY DUE
TO DYNAMIC LIFTING OF THE CAP/VERY WARM AIR NEAR 850MB. CAPES WILL
RUN 1000-2000J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING PRIMARILY THIN CAPE PROFILES BELOW 600MB WITH THE
BETTER BUOYANCY OCCURRING UP HIGH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THIS EVENT HAVING THE POTENTIAL
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCH OR SO.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's pray for rain. Away with the Cockroach Cap!

[wxman666]

HGX forecasts a high of 90 tomorrow. In a previous discussion, they said it would take max temps in the low to mid 90's to break the cap. With a high of 90 projected....what does everyone think?

[srainhoutx]

Unfortunately the cap just looks too strong across the area. It appears that we will see what we have been seeing regarding showers/storms along the cold front that just seem to pulse up and down and offer nothing in the way of beneficial rainfall. We are going to need so sort of pattern change to break this persistent pattern. Let’s just hope it isn’t something that swings us to the other end of the spectrum like tropical troubles.

[unome]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.mp4

note - this won't be updated throughout the day

[Ptarmigan]

Unfortunately the cap just looks too strong across the area. It appears that we will see what we have been seeing regarding showers/storms along the cold front that just seem to pulse up and down and offer nothing in the way of beneficial rainfall. We are going to need so sort of pattern change to break this persistent pattern. Let’s just hope it isn’t something that swings us to the other end of the spectrum like tropical troubles.

I wonder what it takes to destroy the cockroach cap once and for all.

[jasons2k]

Weekend routine - soaking the lawn...maybe rain in a few weeks?

I always remember April 10th - the anniversary of the big Wichita Falls tornado:

http://www.kxii.com/blogs/weatherblog/42783667.html

[jasons2k]

I wonder what it takes to destroy the cockroach cap once and for all.

Probably not until the summer pattern takes hold with a tropical airmass. At this rate, we may not see much until the easterlies and sea breeze get established.

[Ptarmigan]

Probably not until the summer pattern takes hold with a tropical airmass. At this rate, we may not see much until the easterlies and sea breeze get established.

Our RAID has not come yet to kill the cockroach cap. I remember Summer of 2009 was hot and dry.

[srainhoutx]

Ugh...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...

.A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

TXZ176-177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-111100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.A.0003.110411T1700Z-110412T0100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-
MADISON-MONTGOMERY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
344 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF AUSTIN...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...
MADISON...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON...AND
MONTGOMERY.

* WIND...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT.

* HIGHEST THREAT...IS LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HOUSTON TO EL CAMPO.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

[TexasBreeze]

I wonder what it takes to destroy the cockroach cap once and for all.

Probably not until the summer pattern takes hold with a tropical airmass. At this rate, we may not see much until the easterlies and sea breeze get established.

Unless it rains significantly soon, the summer could be dominated by drought feedback. Dry and hot air/ground helps maintain nearby high pressure preventing rainfall even from seabreezes and makes it hotter and drier. Drought-busters in summer around here= tropical systems usually.

[sleetstorm]

It appears as though the city of Fort Worth may get a tornadic thunderstorm within the next several minutes. I tell you that all of the thunderstorms out west central, southwest, & north central Texas are exploding with growth like fireworks.

[wxman666]

It appears as though the city of Fort Worth may get a tornadic thunderstorm within the next several minutes. I tell you that all of the thunderstorms out west central, southwest, & north central Texas are exploding with growth like fireworks.

Would be wise to keep an eye on those bad boys. They don't seem to be slowing down.