December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[harpman]

Some interesting developments via the 12Z Operational Euro.

Ok.......what?

[srainhoutx]

Some interesting developments via the 12Z Operational Euro.

Ok.......what?

The run just finished. lol Here are the 240 charts for 850 and 500. The Euro suggests a potent 1050mb High Pressure dropping S into ND and our Upper Air Feature is much futher S than previous runs. Also of note is the cold air arrives before the U/A Feature ejects out of MX/NM and a Coastal Low develops along the Lower TX Coast.

[don]

12z Euro definitely looks interesting and would be the perfect setup for wintry weather across the state but of course its way too far away to get excited about.

[Ptarmigan]

What does the model mean? Some frozen rain event?

[srainhoutx]

It is way too soon to speculate on sensible weather at that time frame and we will have days to watch this unfold. That said, the ensembles are beginning to sniff out a rather significant pattern change and it does bear watching.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro definitely suggests/predicts widespread freezing/frozen precip across Texas on Wed, Dec. 8th. But all that is dependent on the upper low/trof hanging back west after the cold air moves south. If the trof/low just swings through with the front, then no post-frontal precip at all, and no winter storm. GFS has a sharp ridge in west Texas/NM just where the 10-day Euro has a deep low. Complete opposites. Which is right? Maybe neither? Give the models another week or so to sort things out before having any confidence in the forecast for Dec 7-8.

[srainhoutx]

The 'theme' among the NWS afternoon discussions suggest the Euro is the outlier, but worth keeping an eye on.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro Ensembles...

[TexasMetBlake]

Dallas AFD: (snipet)

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AS NEXT WEEK
APPROACHES AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION DOES FORECAST A MAJOR WINTER
WEATHER EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF TX FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME THIS SOLUTION REPRESENTS AN OUTLIER THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO
VERIFY...HOWEVER IT REMAINS SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS.

[Ptarmigan]

12Z Euro definitely suggests/predicts widespread freezing/frozen precip across Texas on Wed, Dec. 8th. But all that is dependent on the upper low/trof hanging back west after the cold air moves south. If the trof/low just swings through with the front, then no post-frontal precip at all, and no winter storm. GFS has a sharp ridge in west Texas/NM just where the 10-day Euro has a deep low. Complete opposites. Which is right? Maybe neither? Give the models another week or so to sort things out before having any confidence in the forecast for Dec 7-8.

Should be an interesting 10 days to follow.

[TexasMetBlake]

It works in our favor that the GFS continues to show something different with every run while the Euro has been very consistent with a deep trough.

[srainhoutx]

HGX:

HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF WITH ITS DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH LATE SATURDAY REACHING THE GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
PATTERN FOR NEXT SUNDAY COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT TO
THE WEST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH COULD MEAN LESS MODIFICATION FOR THE
AIRMASS SLIDING DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[wxman57]

The 'theme' among the NWS afternoon discussions suggest the Euro is the outlier, but worth keeping an eye on.

FYI - my long-range guy at the office says the GFS is out to lunch - it's the outlier in favor of the Euro.

[srainhoutx]

The 'theme' among the NWS afternoon discussions suggest the Euro is the outlier, but worth keeping an eye on.

FYI - my long-range guy at the office says the GFS is out to lunch - it's the outlier in favor of the Euro.

I'd agree. The GFS is 'trending' and we'll see what it spins out tonight...

[TexasMetBlake]

The 'theme' among the NWS afternoon discussions suggest the Euro is the outlier, but worth keeping an eye on.

FYI - my long-range guy at the office says the GFS is out to lunch - it's the outlier in favor of the Euro.

I'd agree. The GFS is 'trending' and we'll see what it spins out tonight...

That picture is definitely funny and definitely illustrates how the gfs has been lately..I'm anxiously awaiting the 00z euro!

[helloitsb]

That picture is definitely funny and definitely illustrates how the gfs has been lately..I'm anxiously awaiting the 00z euro!

When does the 00z euro come out?

[wxman57]

That picture is definitely funny and definitely illustrates how the gfs has been lately..I'm anxiously awaiting the 00z euro!

When does the 00z euro come out?

Around 1am. I can wait until morning...

[helloitsb]

That picture is definitely funny and definitely illustrates how the gfs has been lately..I'm anxiously awaiting the 00z euro!

When does the 00z euro come out?

Around 1am. I can wait until morning...

Thanks I can wait also, won't catch me staying up that late tonight!

[don]

Latest GFS brings back the cold air but not the precip atleast its a step in the right direction lol

[Baseballdude2915]

Would be nice for some 'night crew' guys to post the Euro in a bit