Hurricane Beryl

[Cpv17]

Euro still in mexico, but it did shift north some, so far the euro is the outlier at least in the op model department

Did the Euro initialize the storm correctly?

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 not even remotely close, initialized at 995 mb, current pressure is around 958 mb

[DoctorMu]

Models are flipping again today.. Mexico is back on the table. LOL The fact that Texas was ever, or is an option is concerning.

Hello! CMC:



There really should be a caution on the models >5 days: For entertainment purposes only. Please, no wagering.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 not even remotely close, initialized at 995 mb, current pressure is around 958 mb

Then that’s probably a big reason why it’s so far south.

[Ptarmigan]

CMC joins the GFS and ICON with a texas landfall, very interesting

ICON forecast model.


I notice the forecast models have a landfall next Monday. Of course that can change.

[don]

02L_tracks_latest.png (58.16 KiB) Viewed 2982 times

[Stratton20]

Fwiw the HWRF shoots the gap between the yucatan and cuba, and brings a very powerful Beryl into the gulf, interesting

[brazoriatx]

I think a south Texas or maybe a little north would be best bet for us here, altho it would put us on the dirty side..a Direct hit would suck

[DoctorMu]

I think a south Texas or maybe a little north would be best bet for us here, altho it would put us on the dirty side..a Direct hit would suck

Give me some dirty side. At least CLL would receive rain. Those LA side storms give us nothing but even hotter, windy weather!

[Ptarmigan]

Fwiw the HWRF shoots the gap between the yucatan and cuba, and brings a very powerful Beryl into the gulf, interesting

HWRF forecast


It has Beryl as a Category 3 hurricane north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[DoctorMu]

ummmm...that Trans-Atlantic train is starting up a bit early...

[DoctorMu]

Fwiw the HWRF shoots the gap between the yucatan and cuba, and brings a very powerful Beryl into the gulf, interesting

HWRF forecast


It has Beryl as a Category 3 hurricane north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Ruh roh.

We're a ways off, but still...

[Cpv17]

02L_tracks_latest.png

Dang, now it looks like Mexico again lol

[Stratton20]

EPS and GEFS ensemble mean average ( black line) is around corpus- matagorda bay

[Cpv17]

I think a south Texas or maybe a little north would be best bet for us here, altho it would put us on the dirty side..a Direct hit would suck

It’s a small storm. Unless it grows in size then a STX landfall won’t do much this far north unless it goes towards central Texas and drags in moisture off the Gulf on the E side.

[Stormlover2020]

Won’t know till wed night or Thursday.. yall get some rest if u keep model watching u will get a headache .

[brazoriatx]

Won’t know till wed night or Thursday.. yall get some rest if u keep model watching u will get a headache .

These people are weather nerds lol they live for this..they will be up all night

[Stratton20]

hey too be fair, when you have a powerful hurricane entering the caribbean soon, only to track west- WNW and potentially still be a hurricane by the time it nears the gulf, it will definitely tend to get youre attention big time on each model run lol

[DoctorMu]

EPS and GEFS ensemble mean average ( black line) is around corpus- matagorda bay

Dirty side.

[DoctorMu]

I think a south Texas or maybe a little north would be best bet for us here, altho it would put us on the dirty side..a Direct hit would suck

It’s a small storm. Unless it grows in size then a STX landfall won’t do much this far north unless it goes towards central Texas and drags in moisture off the Gulf on the E side.

The friction would pump in dirty side rain our way.

Oh, and it's small now. It could be a different beast in the GoM.