Wx Infinity Forums

cisa wrote:Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks [LEFT]
[/LEFT]
GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Mr. T wrote:

Hardcoreweather wrote:
I was telling people not to feed you and you took the bait Now back to 97L

You've been on these forums for almost 5 years now, and I don't think at any point have you ever been coherent enough to hold a conversation with. Once again, I have no idea what you are trying to convey here...

You should post another outdated model map from your awful website just to spam on this forum your awful website

If you have a problem with me then please shoot me a PM or give me a call and we can talk it over like adults. You have been trolling me for years on more than one site and it's about time for you to grow up and move on. I have never attacked you or anybody else. This site is not here for you or anybody else to attack people and all your doing is creating noise. People want weather info and not your personal attacks. Also for the record the model images that I posted were hot off the presses and up to date. Have a safe 2010 cane season James N Alabama

wxdata wrote:Everyone, this board was created so weather info and ideas could be exchanged without a lot of drama. The moderators of this board fully recognize the wide range of personalities leading to a wide range of opinions. One opinion is no less correct or incorrect as the next. If you don't agree with a person's post, that's fine. I'm sure there are people on this board that disagree with some of my posts. That's OK. I get it, but when the discussion begins to reach into the mud, we must put the reign on things. Some may disagree that we the moderators don't step in sooner, but our philosophy is to enjoy the exchange of ideas. This is directed at no one in particular, but if you can't play nice in the sandbox, please take your toys and go elsewhere.

Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. One factor potentially aiding the storm will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next 4 - 5 days, and I believe the primary detriment to development of 97L over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 60% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas, and I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 10%. There is a better chance that 97L could attain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps 20%. These probabilities will depend heavily upon how long 97L (or Bonnie) spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.