Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[Scott747]

Having trouble decyphering through the grumbling ...Just looking at the models, this looks to be something to watch. What time frame are we looking at and do you guys have an opinion on our odds (knowing this is really early in the game I mean). Thanks guys!

It would probably be closer to this weekend before it entered the Gulf (if it does as either a wave or developing system) which still leaves anyone in our neck of the woods plenty of time to take notice.

Andrew has the general idea on when we might see some effects.

Sometimes we look at these systems and don't realize how far away they are.

[Scott747]

It's up to a orange in the % world -



A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA...RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN 5
INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

[Hardcoreweather]

latest modeks

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 9edfdc.jpg

[Hardcoreweather]

Updated models

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 4e85de.jpg

[Hardcoreweather]

40% now

Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks [LEFT]
[/LEFT]
GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

[Scott747]

HWRF is running after the break between runs yesterday. As usual intensity is suspect -

[srainhoutx]

How many times have we seen the HWRF shift W in the past? The intensity looks suspect as well. Oh, and good morning. Looks like some things were straightened out last night. Hopefully we will have a positive and productive day around here.

[Hardcoreweather]

I was telling people not to feed you and you took the bait Now back to 97L

You've been on these forums for almost 5 years now, and I don't think at any point have you ever been coherent enough to hold a conversation with. Once again, I have no idea what you are trying to convey here...

You should post another outdated model map from your awful website just to spam on this forum your awful website

If you have a problem with me then please shoot me a PM or give me a call and we can talk it over like adults. You have been trolling me for years on more than one site and it's about time for you to grow up and move on. I have never attacked you or anybody else. This site is not here for you or anybody else to attack people and all your doing is creating noise. People want weather info and not your personal attacks. Also for the record the model images that I posted were hot off the presses and up to date. Have a safe 2010 cane season James N Alabama

[srainhoutx]

Everyone, this board was created so weather info and ideas could be exchanged without a lot of drama. The moderators of this board fully recognize the wide range of personalities leading to a wide range of opinions. One opinion is no less correct or incorrect as the next. If you don't agree with a person's post, that's fine. I'm sure there are people on this board that disagree with some of my posts. That's OK. I get it, but when the discussion begins to reach into the mud, we must put the reign on things. Some may disagree that we the moderators don't step in sooner, but our philosophy is to enjoy the exchange of ideas. This is directed at no one in particular, but if you can't play nice in the sandbox, please take your toys and go elsewhere.

A friendly reminder. This dead horse has been beat enough overnight.

[srainhoutx]

Latest TAFB

[ticka1]

Is it sufficent to say that the tropics have awaken from its one week slumber?

Looks like a tropical wave train out there across the GOM, Caribbean and Atlantic.

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

179 
WHXX01 KWBC 201256
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1256 UTC TUE JUL 20 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100720 1200 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100720  1200   100721  0000   100721  1200   100722  0000

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.0N  65.8W   19.9N  68.7W   20.5N  71.5W   20.6N  73.8W
BAMD    19.0N  65.8W   19.8N  67.8W   20.5N  69.5W   21.3N  71.3W
BAMM    19.0N  65.8W   19.8N  68.0W   20.5N  70.0W   21.1N  71.7W
LBAR    19.0N  65.8W   19.5N  67.7W   20.2N  69.9W   21.1N  72.2W
SHIP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS
DSHP        30KTS          38KTS          47KTS          56KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100722  1200   100723  1200   100724  1200   100725  1200

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.5N  75.9W   21.0N  78.8W   22.5N  81.3W   23.5N  83.7W
BAMD    22.3N  73.1W   24.4N  76.9W   26.2N  81.1W   27.6N  84.4W
BAMM    21.8N  73.3W   23.8N  76.2W   25.7N  79.5W   27.2N  82.6W
LBAR    21.8N  74.6W   23.8N  79.0W   26.0N  82.9W   27.5N  84.7W
SHIP        62KTS          73KTS          77KTS          76KTS
DSHP        62KTS          73KTS          77KTS          51KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.0N LONCUR =  65.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  18.8N LONM12 =  64.6W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
LATM24 =  18.8N LONM24 =  63.2W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[srainhoutx]

Dr. Jeff Masters take on 97L...

Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. One factor potentially aiding the storm will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29°C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next 4 - 5 days, and I believe the primary detriment to development of 97L over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 60% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas, and I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 10%. There is a better chance that 97L could attain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps 20%. These probabilities will depend heavily upon how long 97L (or Bonnie) spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

[Hardcoreweather]

12Z Model runs from the NHC

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 157769.jpg

[srainhoutx]

12Z Intensity Guidance...

[srainhoutx]

A full package of RECON assets scheduled...

NOUS42 KNHC 201445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT TUE 20 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-050

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF HISPANIOLA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 21/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 21/1400Z
D. 21.0N 70.0W
E. 21/1700Z TO 21/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 22/0000Z
B. NOAA9 02BBA SURV
C. 21/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 22/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 22/0400Z
D. 22.0N 72.0W
E. 22/0500Z TO 22/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. A POSSIBLE G-IV
MISSION FOR 23/0000Z.

[Hardcoreweather]

Pretty impressive rainfall rates

[Scott747]

Nice to see a NOAA flight early in the game. Should help with the track heading into the weekend.