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GEM FTW

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:19 am 12z GFS took a big step in the right direction And looks similar to the CMC. With the gulf low further offshore. With the 540 line and 850mb freezing temps almost down to the coast with plenty of moisture overrunning. Looks like a good setup for snow down here as heavy precipitation would cause wetbulbing that could bring Temps further down at the surface and allow a transition to snow as the upper levels are plenty cold.

That could be the key. The next 3 days of model trends should be interesting indeed.

Can someone post the latest Euro snowfall map? I'm curious as to what it shows. Thanks.

What are the chances that could shift even closer to the coast?

harp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:21 pm Can someone post the latest Euro snowfall map? I'm curious as to what it shows. Thanks.

Euro has a similar tracking of the storm as the Canadian model, but it's the timing and depth of the cold are that are everything in terms of wintry outcome. Plenty of PW.

How does all of this look for Colorado Springs for 9th-13th? My daughter will be there. Thanks.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:45 pm

harp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:21 pm Can someone post the latest Euro snowfall map? I'm curious as to what it shows. Thanks.

Euro has a similar tracking of the storm as the Canadian model, but it's the timing and depth of the cold are that are everything in terms of wintry outcome. Plenty of PW.

You mention plenty of PW but I really don’t see any significant totals of rain nor snow from this except on the CMC. You think totals will go up as the event nears?

Let's hope for some snow. It does not have to be cold to snow.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 3:57 pm How does all of this look for Colorado Springs for 9th-13th? My daughter will be there. Thanks.

Tell your daughter to bundle up as the first day will likely be the coldest. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing with some snow showers throughout the day, maybe totaling 1-2" before moving on out by midnight. Temperatures dropping into the teens that night and a cold start Sunday morning. Rest of the week looks dry with a gradual warm up into the upper 30s on the 10-11th and into mid to upper 40s her last few days there. Certainly not bad for this time of the year.

For our weather here in SETX, looks interesting for sure. Our system comes onshore in the Pacific Northwest Friday morning and quickly dips down into the Rockies and into north/central TX. Question will be how cold is the air aloft at the time and how much moisture is present. Our system coming in tomorrow night may hinder return flow for us and give the greatest lift out west near I-35. Still plenty of time to watch it evolve. Overall synoptic pattern looks favorable for the next couple of weeks for Texas to cash in on some winter events.

Whoa... Frank on channel 2 just had a 10 pm lead in with “winter precip this weekend?”

Frank B is a drama queen lol.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:53 pm Whoa... Frank on channel 2 just had a 10 pm lead in with “winter precip this weekend?”

Blake and David have been silent

My hunch is the SPC will upgrade parts of SETX into a slight risk category tomorrow. Damaging winds (60+ mph) look to be the main threat as the thunderstorms move through along the front. For those that go into work, stay weather aware as it will likely roll through near rush hour tomorrow evening.

Depending on how much instability there is, there may be a tornado threat involved, especially out in our western counties if any of them can become cellular. However, cloud cover may inhibit the severity of these storms.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:53 pm Whoa... Frank on channel 2 just had a 10 pm lead in with “winter precip this weekend?”

Idk. I’m not sold at all yet. And qpf seems like it might be lacking.

Belmer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:27 pm My hunch is the SPC will upgrade parts of SETX into a slight risk category tomorrow. Damaging winds (60+ mph) look to be the main threat as the thunderstorms move through along the front. For those that go into work, stay weather aware as it will likely roll through near rush hour tomorrow evening.

Depending on how much instability there is, there may be a tornado threat involved, especially out in our western counties if any of them can become cellular. However, cloud cover may inhibit the severity of these storms.

The HRRR has a nasty looking cell pass right over me tomorrow down here in Wharton County.

From blakes twitter: A lot of whispers about wintry precipitation this Sunday in Houston. I'm not sold. The precipitation amounts seem to be lacking, too. Really depends on the track of the low. Most models show wintry weather in Texas (with the Canadian by far the most robust). GFS/Euro not so much.

GFS still trending colder fwiw, with widespread temps in the upper 30s.

Yep, and once again, the moisture sinks into the gulf and south Louisiana misses out.

don wrote: ↑Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:22 pm GFS still trending colder fwiw, with widespread temps in the upper 30s.

Temps would likely be colder than that at the surface imo.

Yep I agree, 0Z CMC looks more aggressive.