Wx Infinity Forums

srainhoutx wrote:

kellybell4770 wrote:
Which one of these models is the "Euro"? I didn't see the acronym "ECMWF"???

Some interesting information concerning Hurricane Track Models...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_c ... cast_model

very informative - thanks!

Where is wxman? i want to know what he thinks

Snowman wrote:Where is wxman? i want to know what he thinks

He does'nt think it has much of a chance at development.

HPC:

perk wrote:

Snowman wrote:Where is wxman? i want to know what he thinks

He does'nt think it has much of a chance at development.

That is true, or I'd be posting my thoughts here more often. I think the disturbance will move mostly northward and inland into Louisiana on Thursday morning. Most of the rain probably east of us.

As of today, I would bet on Brownsville to Beaumont.

Not trying to turn this into a prediction thread but many of you are asking for me to pick a location for landfall along with intensity so here goes . Please don't get upset if I pick your location. I am going with landfall Thursday at 1pm in Cameron,LA with 65 mph winds. Now back to 96L

A little off-topic but apparently "tar balls," oil, from the Gulf oil leak have washed up on Galveston Beach.

So anything headed this way could bring other issues as well.

TVCN says right around San Luis Pass with the 12z model suite.

When is the projected landfall?

Wednesday/Thursday timeframe sambucol.

sambucol wrote:When is the projected landfall?

As it stands now...

Thursday-Friday.

And that's using 'landfall' loosely if it doesn't develop. However that should be the time frame from impacts from the overall system were it to continue somewhere towards the Texas coast. Anything further towards La. and we might not see much out of it.

does anyone think the GOM is conducive enough to form a hurricane and does it have time to do that???

srainhoutx wrote:Wednesday/Thursday timeframe sambucol.

Thanks. I'm guessing it won't have time to develop into a hurricane if the models are right as far as the track is concerned? Tropical storm probably? Guess I'll get to the grocery store early tomorrow morning just in case.

FYI: Ch. 13's on-air met just stated that most projections take this system into Texas coastline late Wednesday or into Thursday with potential for slow development into TD or TS before landfall due to warm waters and low shear environment.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
414 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ330-335-350-355-061200-
MATAGORDA BAY-GALVESTON BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
414 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THE APPROACH AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE EASTERLY WINDS TO BETWEEN 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DRAG IN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET OF HIGHER WATER OVER NORMAL TIDES.
AS OF NOW...WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3.5 FEET...THE LEVELS
THAT BEGIN TO BRING WATER OVER LOWER LYING AREAS AND COASTAL ROADWAYS.

It is very important that we keep a close eye on this system. While the odds are against it that it will develop, with the short time frame this storm has till impact, we need to be prepared just in case. A tropical wave or depression/storm can bring tremendous amounts of rain in a very short time period. If this storm pulls a Humberto (as Ed says) then we could have a much bigger problem. It does have a couple of days over water and if it can get its act together then who knows what will happen. I remember with Alex how so many went back and forth on the formation of the storm and each time Alex looked bad they said it was done and it was nothing to worry about. I am not saying to panic or anything like that I just feel like some people aren't putting any concern in this wave at all.

Andrew wrote:It is very important that we keep a close eye on this system. While the odds are against it that it will develop, with the short time frame this storm has till impact, we need to be prepared just in case. A tropical wave or depression/storm can bring tremendous amounts of rain in a very short time period. If this storm pulls a Humberto (as Ed says) then we could have a much bigger problem. It does have a couple of days over water and if it can get its act together then who knows what will happen. I remember with Alex how so many went back and forth on the formation of the storm and each time Alex looked bad they said it was done and it was nothing to worry about. I am not saying to panic or anything like that I just feel like some people aren't putting any concern in this wave at all.

Agreed that we need to be watchful. Good thing is that people seem to be paying attention and the local tv stations are highlighting the potential threat. Ch. 11 led off their newscast with this story as did Ch. 2, which stated that the system is moving generally NW toward Texas. All seem to be onboard with heavy rain for our area in the Thursday timeframe. That could be bad enough if the grounds are still saturated, but hopefully the warm waters won't intensify this into a hurricane and add wind issues to the equation as well.

txsnowmaker wrote:

Andrew wrote:It is very important that we keep a close eye on this system. While the odds are against it that it will develop, with the short time frame this storm has till impact, we need to be prepared just in case. A tropical wave or depression/storm can bring tremendous amounts of rain in a very short time period. If this storm pulls a Humberto (as Ed says) then we could have a much bigger problem. It does have a couple of days over water and if it can get its act together then who knows what will happen. I remember with Alex how so many went back and forth on the formation of the storm and each time Alex looked bad they said it was done and it was nothing to worry about. I am not saying to panic or anything like that I just feel like some people aren't putting any concern in this wave at all.

Agreed that we need to be watchful. Good thing is that people seem to be paying attention and the local tv stations are highlighting the potential threat. Ch. 11 led off their newscast with this story as did Ch. 2, which stated that the system is moving generally NW toward Texas. All seem to be onboard with heavy rain for our area. That could be bad enough if the grounds are still saturated, but hopefully the warm waters won't intensify this into a hurricane and add wind issues to the equation as well.

Yes sometimes media overplays the situation but with the lack of time left before landfall it is always important to let the public know that there is something out there that needs to be closely monitored and that if this forms then there is not much time to prepare. I personally don't think much will form (possible TD or TS) but rain could be a major issue and that is defiantly something I am concerned about.