INVEST 92L

[don]

It will be interesting to see what 92L does once it enters the Gulf...could definitely be a "Bears Watch" contender.

[srainhoutx]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Convection starting to increase again...

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 182331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cisa]

We're cruising this wk (monday thru friday). Any guesses as to whether we might run into anything?

[Mr. T]

The CMC and Euro upper air patterns would imply a Mexico or TX hit, while the 0z GFS shows much weaker ridging across the SE US and pulls the system northward into a weakness in the Central Gulf Coast region between a ridge to the west and a trough across the northeast.

6z GFS came in looking more like its European counterparts, showing a farther west landfall with stronger ridging across the SE US due to a much weaker northeastern trough... Honestly, I think the building ridge this upcoming week will not deteriorate as quickly as the GFS suspects, as the Euro and CMC show a northeastern trough not having too much impact on heights across the SE, and I think 92L would be more likely to stay the course into Mexico than curve northward. An incoming trough onto the West Coast late next week will have to be watched in case it is able to break down the upper ridge across TX enough (create a weakness) to pull 92L northward into the TX coast...

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see HGX and LCH both talking about the possibility of disturbed weather in the area next week. Whether 92L develops or not, this is a good reminder that Hurricane Season has begun and now is the time to think about what you would do if we face a threat this year. What concerns me is an August 'like' pattern in late June.

[srainhoutx]

BAM track suggests a rather impressive Tropical Storm, but an aweful lot of land interaction ahead.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191316
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1316 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100619 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100619 1200 100620 0000 100620 1200 100621 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 67.0W 17.4N 69.8W 17.6N 72.6W 18.1N 75.1W
BAMD 17.1N 67.0W 17.4N 68.3W 17.7N 69.7W 18.4N 71.1W
BAMM 17.1N 67.0W 17.3N 69.2W 17.5N 71.3W 18.0N 73.1W
LBAR 17.1N 67.0W 17.5N 69.1W 18.0N 71.5W 18.7N 73.7W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 1200 100623 1200 100624 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 77.3W 19.1N 81.4W 19.6N 84.5W 19.4N 87.0W
BAMD 19.1N 72.5W 20.9N 75.4W 22.9N 77.8W 25.2N 79.8W
BAMM 18.5N 74.9W 19.7N 78.1W 21.1N 80.4W 22.5N 81.8W
LBAR 19.6N 75.8W 22.1N 79.8W 24.3N 83.1W 26.2N 85.9W
SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 36KTS 41KTS 49KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 62.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Portastorm]

The CMC and Euro upper air patterns would imply a Mexico or TX hit, while the 0z GFS shows much weaker ridging across the SE US and pulls the system northward into a weakness in the Central Gulf Coast region between a ridge to the west and a trough across the northeast.

6z GFS came in looking more like its European counterparts, showing a farther west landfall with stronger ridging across the SE US due to a much weaker northeastern trough... Honestly, I think the building ridge this upcoming week will not deteriorate as quickly as the GFS suspects, as the Euro and CMC show, and I think 92L would be more likely to stay the course into Mexico than curve northward. An incoming trough onto the West Coast late next week will have to be watched in case it is able to break down the upper ridge across TX enough to pull 92L northward into the TX coast...

I think you're on to something here. I recall from tropical seasons past that a known GFS bias is to weaken ridges too quickly. Something to keep in mind.

[redfish1]

it looks to me we may have something to watch in the upcoming week

[Mr. T]

My hunch, guesstimate, is this might try to spin up past the Yucatan, and won't be able to gain latitude fast enough to threaten Texas before landfall in Mexico, and may not have time to develop much anyway.

Agreed.

We've had high upper heights across our area throughout this month, and I don't see the pattern changing across our area too much to allow the upper ridging to completely go away. However, as I said before, an incoming trough on the West Coast will have to be watched late next week to see if it is robust enough to perhaps create a weakness in the ridging across our area and pull whatever will become of 92L northward...

The best case scenario for us would be for this to remain a vigorous tropical wave and for the ridging to move northward or eastward somewhat, allowing 92L and its moisture to impact our coastal region to bring us some much needed rainfall. IAH has not seen an inch of rain yet this month. This june and last june sure have been Debbie Downers

[don]

On the other hand the Euro and other models (CMC,Nogaps) but my intentions more on the Euro for obvious reasons... have been consistent on developing a system in the Caribbean next week for several days now that moves into the gulf.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP240.gif

[redfish1]

take a look at the latest 12z gfs it has invest 92L making landfall right here in southeast texas

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggesting that what ever is left of 92L may increase our rain chances next week...at least...

[Hardcoreweather]

[don]

12z GFS is also the most aggressive its been on the development of 92l (has it hitting pretty close to tropical storm status at least briefly...)

[Mr. T]

Heh. The 12z GFS stalls 92L over our area and opens the floodgates. Thankfully, this is still a week away.

The 12z Euro is way south into Mexico. The only thing this does is reaffirm my prediction that this is either a Mexico or Texas threat. This thing isn't going to threaten the Eastern Gulf with the building ridge next week...

[Mr. T]

Everyone is finally beginning to give a slight mention to this area of disturbed weather:

From HGX:
GFS REMAINS A LONE VOICE OF PCPN AS IT TRIES TO
DEVELOP A SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHICH THEN MOVES INTO SE TX
AND STALLS DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT PICTURE PAINTED AS PER THE ECMWF WHICH TRACKS THIS SYS-
TEM FURTHER SOUTH (IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE).

From CRP:
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE GULF DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SPINS THIS SYSTEM
UP AND SHOWS SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF
COAST...BUT AGREE W/ HPC PROGS WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE W/ THE ECMWF
WHICH KEEPS A MORE OPEN WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST ON
SAT. SO THIS SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE REGION SAT AND SUN BRINGING
INCREASE TROPICAL SHRA AND TSTMS W/ SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IF THIS PANS OUT...
BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST SHOW SLT CHC POPS FOR SAT
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MED RANGE
MODELS.

From EWX:
THE 12Z GFS40 SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...AFFECTING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS EARLY AS NEXT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE ROUGHLY 24H BEHIND THE GFS DEPICTION AND
MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND SOUTHERN GULF. CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES IS LOW...BUT THE FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST THE UPPER HIGH MOVES THE GREATER OUR RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE.

From LCH:
AS WAS NOTED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...SOME MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A TROPICAL CYCLONE ENTERING THE GULF BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BRING WHAT IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN THE SE GULF BY THURSDAY THEN NW ACRS THE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSISTENCY IN
THE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS...IT REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER WHILE THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MAINTAINS AN OPEN WAVE ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON BOTH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND FUTURE
MODEL RUNS AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

From FWD:
SINCE THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE IS QUIET...THE ONLY INTERESTING THING
OF NOTE COMES AFTER 200 HOURS OR SO. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT IT WILL BE A SYSTEM WORTH
WATCHING.

[biggerbyte]

Heh. The 12z GFS stalls 92L over our area and opens the floodgates. Thankfully, this is still a week away.

The 12z Euro is way south into Mexico. The only thing this does is reaffirm my prediction that this is either a Mexico or Texas threat. This thing isn't going to threaten the Eastern Gulf with the building ridge next week...

Agreed! Folks in northern Mexico, all the way to central LA should start paying attention.
Tropical Storm for someone is a good possibility at this point.

[don]

Well i wouldn't say a good possibility yet atleast but a bears watch is in order for sure.