April 2015: Pleasant Weather To End April

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

TXZ199-213-141745-
HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1205 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARRIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1204 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SPLASHTOWN...OR NEAR SPRING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...TOMBALL...WILLIS...SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...GREATER
GREENSPOINT...OAK RIDGE NORTH...PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND SHOOT...WOODLOCH...
PORTER HEIGHTS...SPLASHTOWN...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION...CHATEAU WOODS
AND NORTHWESTERN BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT.

[Paul Robison]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. ACTIVITY WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER OFF THE COAST...BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE POINTING
TOWARD A QUIETER WEDNESDAY...SO WILL GO WITH LOWISH POPS IN THE
GRIDS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STARTING TO ONCE AGAIN SEE QUITE
A BIT OF TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT IMPULSES THAT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCING OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF
RAINS. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS TO LIKELY POPS FOR
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND THE ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET INTERACTS WITH ANY
FOCUSING BOUNDARIES ACROSS OUR AREA. ONCE AGAIN...CANNOT RULE OUT
A RISK FOR SOME BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES) AND EVEN SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. MODELS STILL CANNOT AGREE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THE GENERAL TREND APPEARS TO BE TO EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LOW AND PUT US INTO A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN. SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME POPS FOR SATURDAY AND GO
WITH LOWER NUMBERS ON SUNDAY. 42


FWIW, doesn't sound any different from the impulse that went through Houston today. Nothing strong to severe where I live. Only got 1/2 of rain. One thing bothers, me, though---is this likely to be a more powerful storm system than today's?

[srainhoutx]

Paul it is very difficult to forecast mesoscale convective systems beyond 12 hours as well as embedded upper air disturbances crossing Mexico from the Eastern Pacific. What we do see is that the next upper low will be located somewhere near the Arizona/Utah/Colorado/New Mexico area versus out in the Eastern Pacific that we experienced late last week into last weekend. There is abundant deep tropical moisture spreading E from the Pacific Ocean as well as the NW Caribbean Sea Into the Western Gulf of Mexico. We'll look at things tomorrow morning and again early tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned.

[Paul Robison]

Paul it is very difficult to forecast mesoscale convective systems beyond 12 hours as well as embedded upper air disturbances crossing Mexico from the Eastern Pacific. What we do see is that the next upper low will be located somewhere near the Arizona/Utah/Colorado/New Mexico area versus out in the Eastern Pacific that we experienced late last week into last weekend. There is abundant deep tropical moisture spreading E from the Pacific Ocean as well as the NW Caribbean Sea Into the Western Gulf of Mexico. We'll look at things tomorrow morning and again early tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned.

Location makes a difference, srainhoutx? Wow!
(P.S. Beautiful states, you just mentioned. Think I'll visit them someday. Have a nice day.)

[Katdaddy]

A few showers and thunderstorms N and W of Houston metro should remain to the N as they slide off to the NE with a weak disturbance. Another disturbance will arrive during the afternoon combining with the sea breeze which will lead to more development however precip chances remain rather low at 30%. Things will get interesting should the Storm Predicition Center's (SPC) enhanced risk area pan out for S, S Central, and SE TX tomorrow afternoon and evening. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) and supercells may develop with a potential with a significant damaging wind threat. This threat area will be updated later today by the SPC and will also await this afternoon's NWS Area Forecast Discussions (AFD's) for more info on this upcoming severe weather threat. Stay tuned.

[BlueJay]

Awoke to thunder, rain and 58F temperature. Very new spring-like!

[srainhoutx]

Our unsettled weather pattern continues and today should begin the transition to a much more active pattern as the cold front currently located offshore of the Texas Coast begins to move N as a warm front and deep tropical moisture begins streaming back into S/S Central SE Texas and Louisiana. Currently a jet streak is oriented across Jim Hogg and Zapata Counties in the Rio Grande Valley NE across Montgomery, San Jacinto and Polk Counties in SE Texas and on E. Isolated storms have developed along this jet streak with a strong storm producing small hail and gusty winds in S Texas.



The Weather Prediction Center has issues a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall beginning tomorrow and extending into Friday primarily along the Coastal tier of Counties from Deep S Texas extending along the entire Texas Coast into Friday. I would not be surprised to see this area of excessive rainfall expanded further N and E as well as possibly raided to a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall as we get a bit better handle on just where the heaviest rainfall may occur. There is a good chance that Flood Watches may be hoisted sometime tomorrow extending into Friday across a large portion of our Region extending into Louisiana and the Northern Gulf Coast.

04152015 Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif

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The computer guidance is 'sniffing' two very large convective complexes developing. The first is keying in on Thursday afternoon with another and perhaps stronger MCS developing Friday. Early morning water vapor imagery clearly shows the powerful cold core upper low dropping SE into the 4 Corners Region and in fact, heavy higher elevation snow is expected across most of Colorado and the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains of New Mexico. Additional rich tropical moisture in the mid and upper levels is streaming across the Pacific Ocean toward Mexico setting the stage for a very active weather period once again.

04152015 Day 3 SPC day3otlk_0730.gif

[jasons2k]

Did this front yesterday catch us by surprise? My car thermometer said 59 this morning. I've been out of pocket the last couple of days, but when I checked the week's forecast on Sunday, I don't recall any mention of lows in the 50's this week. I was not expecting that.

[srainhoutx]

Did this front yesterday catch us by surprise? My car thermometer said 59 this morning. I've been out of pocket the last couple of days, but when I checked the week's forecast on Sunday, I don't recall any mention of lows in the 50's this week. I was not expecting that.

It was expected Jason. Yesterday behind the MCS the front cleared the Coast all the way past Brownsville. While it was refreshing this morning, that frontal boundary is already beginning to retreat N and should move inland later today/tonight in response to the deepening upper low and Western trough. Temperatures are running a little below normal for the month of April so far.

[jasons2k]

Well, I did catch Eric Berger's blog on Monday morning. He was saying upper 60's to 80's all week, with the front coming Friday possibly cooling us down to the 50's this weekend. Things obviously changed. I don't think we expected that push of colder air behind yesterday's MCS....

Here is Eric's blog post:

The pattern we saw this weekend should hold sway for most of this week, and a southwesterly flow in the upper atmosphere bringing decent rain chances most days. Highs will be around 80 degrees, with lows in the upper 60s.

The weather will come to a crescendo on Thursday and Friday as a cold front slowly moves toward the area. Some forecast models are indicating quite a bit of rain with the front, possibly a couple more inches on Thursday and Friday.

Between this morning and Saturday the metro area could see as much as another 5 inches of rain. (NOAA)
Between this morning and Saturday the metro area could see as much as another 3-5 inches of rain. (NOAA)
If this is the case, after a wet week, we might have to start worrying about flooding.

The front is forecast to push through on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures this weekend — lows in the lower 50s, perhaps — and an end to the rain later on Friday or sometime on Saturday. If this forecast holds the weekend should be really nice, especially Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS took a step toward what the European and Canadian computer guidance had been suggesting regard the upcoming weekend. That powerful upper low to our West may linger and bit longer and meander across the Southern Plains continuing the unsettled pattern into the weekend. The longer range GFS suggest we will once again see a developing upper low out West and perhaps offer more storminess next week. It appears we are stuck in a persistent pattern that allows a couple of day of drying out before rain and storm chances increase again with a very noisy sub tropical jet nearby.

04152015 12Z GFS gfs_z500_vort_namer_33.png

[srainhoutx]

The Weather Prediction Center has adjusted the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall further inland for tomorrow. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook will likely change again tomorrow morning so it warrants monitoring as additional data arrives overnight.

[jasons2k]

Will be interesting tomorrow. Not much so far today - it's all out in the Gulf for now....

[srainhoutx]

After a nice respite from the active weather that began about a week ago, we are entered into a very active weather pattern once again. The various computer guidance as well as what we are seeing develop upstream with the much talked about very potent upper low and attending trough suggest all eyes turn to the weather. The vigorous upper low is spinning and slowly dropping S into the Great Basin and will meander near Arizona and New Mexico tapping deep tropical moisture that extends well West beyond Hawaii. Rich tropical moisture that has been pooling in the NW Caribbean Sea is moving NW into the Western Gulf of Mexico. Currently the stalled frontal boundary out in the Gulf is slowly beginning its trek back North as a warm front. Storms have initiated across the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico and continue to develop. This is just a harbinger of the very active weather pattern that is expected to begin tomorrow and extend into the upcoming weekend. All mode of severe weather may be possible as the parameters continue to point to at least two episodes of strong storms, heavy flooding rainfall and a very unstable atmosphere. As of this afternoon, Friday looks very concerning with the possibility of strong rotating super cellular meso cyclones developing very far South. A lot will depend on just how quickly the atmosphere can recover from any Mesoscale Convective System that develops tomorrow. For this update it appears the greatest threat for an isolated tornado or two will be either side of the I-10 Corridor from San Antonio extending East into Houston, Lake Charles, Lafayette, Baton Rogue, New Orleans, Gulfport/Biloxi and Mobile. We will be updating our social media feeds heavily as well for this event, so if you do not follow our updates on Facebook and twitter, we encourage you to 'like' our Texas Weather Board Facebook page and follow us on twitter. We are working on providing updates via social media both in English and Spanish and continue to make improvements in ALL of our social media feeds for the KHOU Regional Weather Forum. Our reliable weather information footprint continues to expand across ALL of the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida and into the Caribbean Islands and beyond. We all can take pride that our online weather community continues to grow and everyone has contributed to our growth.

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04152015 2140Z TX VIS latest.jpg

[jojotheidiotclown]

worst spring ever. Just purchased a 560 hp convertible r8 spyder and now we are stuck in some horrible rain maker. Looking forward to solid sunny days for a decent period. I just want to put the top down lol

[BlueJay]

jeepers....

[Ptarmigan]

This could be a wet one.

[Katdaddy]

The SPC has lowered the enhanced risk to a slight risk area across Central, S, and SE TX today. Enhanced risk area exist for the TX Panhandle this afternoon. For tomorrow the SPC now has an enhanced risk area across STX and portions of SE TX. Saturday also now has a slight risk area across Central and NTX as well as the Upper TX Coast and into LA. Additional disturbances rotating around the upper level low and returning warm front will likely develop periods of heavy rains and severe weather today through Saturday. Timing and location will continue to be challenge as to who and where will see the most heavy rain and severe weather. I would not be surprised to see Flash Flood Watches issued later today or tonight for SE TX. An active few weather days ahead.

[srainhoutx]

The short range meso guidance (Texas Tech WRF and the HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh) are in somewhat agreement that the best chance of heavier rainfall may extend from San Antonio on ENE into College Station and Lufkin as well as South Central/SE Louisiana today. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of SE Texas and the Southern 3rd of Louisiana in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall today with a more widespread Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow to include the Hill Country, most of Coastal Texas into Louisiana. PW's of 1.75 or near 2 standard deviation above normal for this time of year are expected and with saturated soil continues mainly across S Texas on E into Louisiana, heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches with isolated 4 to 6 inch amounts where some training may occur could lead to Flash Flooding mainly in low lying areas that typically see flooding issues as well as urban flooding and ponding of roadways.

04162015 06Z TT WRF 15Z dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f19.gif

04162015 08Z HRRR 22Z cref_t5sfc_f14.png

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04162015 06Z Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif

[jasons2k]

worst spring ever. Just purchased a 560 hp convertible r8 spyder and now we are stuck in some horrible rain maker. Looking forward to solid sunny days for a decent period. I just want to put the top down lol

Yeah, I can understand your frustration with wanting to get out. I've been needing to do work around the yard and outside to get our house ready to sell and it's slow going with this weather. That said, I am enjoying a more normal spring for a change to green things up after years and years of nothing but cap cap and more cap.

It's sad that it takes an El Nino just get us "normal" rainfall. We should enjoy it while it lasts; it won't last forever. Enjoy the sunny days you can get out.

By the way, you get the award for most creative screen name