March - Slow Warming Trend With Rain Chance This Weekend?

[unome]

a tornado warning east of Sonora at the moment





loop: http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... loop.shtml

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0265
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM CST SAT MAR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 49...50...

VALID 100410Z - 100545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
49...50...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 49 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 05Z. A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 50 THROUGH AT LEAST THE
06-08Z TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST
STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...NEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED AND DEVELOPED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY LINE AS FAR AS THE DEL RIO AREA DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU
REGION...CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
HOLD FIRM OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STALL...WITH ACTIVITY TENDING TO DEVELOP
EASTWARD WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CAP. 20-30 KT LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST AIR WITH
MODERATELY LARGE CAPE PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST CURRENT
INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT COLD POOL WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS COULD FORM...PERHAPS AFFECTING AREAS NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH
OF SAN ANTONIO BY 06-07Z.

..KERR.. 03/10/2013


ATTN...WFO...EWX...

[C2G]

Loosing that hour shortened my work night, so I'm extremely happy. Looks like the thunderstorm activity to our west is weakening as it approaches.

[unome]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC373-407-101300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0005.130310T1237Z-130310T1300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
737 AM CDT SUN MAR 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 735 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR LIVINGSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON AND GOODRICH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3055 9500 3072 9503 3082 9461 3058 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 259DEG 42KT 3065 9493

$$

!KP!

[wxman57]

Not a good time of the day for a line of thunderstorms to pass through if you're looking for heavier rain. Would have been much better if it had come through in the mid to late afternoon. Maybe 1/4 to 1/2" across the city.

I like the trend on the meteogram below. A little warmer next weekend (mid 70s).

[Katdaddy]

Line of strong storms moved through Lake Conroe about daybreak. Very gusty winds. Storm report NE of my location this morning.

1235 77 4 NW GOODRICH POLK TX 3065 9499 TRINITY RIVER AUTHORITY MEASURED WIND GUST OF 77 MPH ON LAKE LIVINGSTON DAM (HGX) . 1240 UNK 3 S CORRIGAN POLK TX 3096 9482 3 TREES DOWN ON FM 350 6 MI NORTH OF MOSCOW (HGX)

[Portastorm]

The "fun"derstorms were generous to us in southwest Travis County! Picked up nearly an inch of wonderful rainfall in the last 12 hours.

[mckinne63]

Received some nice rain in Stafford around 8am. Gusty winds and some drizzle for a few hours. Sadly, looks like it is done. Just cool and gloomy now. I'll take the coolness. Wish it was accompanied by more rain.

[wxman57]

I may be outvoted, but two overlapping threads now exist for March, a permanent 'longer range' pinned thread that becomes longer ranged pinned thread part 2 or 3 every six months might be better.

Most seem to have voted for a single March thread, but now there are two. I'll post in the local thread only.

[C2G]

Starting to feel like that guy who typed in all caps "Sub Zero" or some weird name. Anyway, I want the opposite of what he wanted "warmth".
Enough of this uncomfortably cool weather, bring on Spring and warmth.
Guess I slept through all the rain this morning, and I slept good.

[srainhoutx]

After a couple of cool day and freezing to near freezing temps tomorrow morning across our Region and low 40's closer to the Gulf Coast,a slow warm up will begin as a very progressive split flow pattern develops with a building Ridge across the Desert SW spreading E towards Texas. A fast flow off the Pacific will keep the storm track focused up in British Columbia and the Pacific NW as storms system pass well to our N in a ESE trajectory towards the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. The blocking pattern across the N Atlantic extending back into Eastern Canada appears to be locked in for the foreseeable future. The upper Ridge across the SW into West Texas looks to strengthen with temps rising to the 80's and 90's along the Rio Grande. Further E, temps should moderate to the 70's beyond Wednesday. The forecast looks dry for our Region with the next possible rain chance in about 7-10 days if then.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS indicates steadily warming temps through early next week - then another cool-down.

[Ptarmigan]

As of today, the average temperature from March 1-10 is 57.1°F. Last March was warm.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXCF6IAH

If March ended today, it would be the 7th coolest March on record.
Top 10
Coolest
53.4 1915
56.0 1931
56.4 2001
56.7 1969
56.9 1970
56.9 1947
57.3 1978
57.4 1971
57.6 1892
57.7 1932

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_mar

Interesting to see coolest March occurring back to back.
1931-1932
1969-1971

[C2G]

My sinuses HATE this time of year. The temps and humidity are in constant flux. wxman57, I was encouraged about your above post until you mentioned another cool down.

[srainhoutx]

A quiet March weather pattern looks to continue with slowly warming temps throughout the week as winds slowly swing around to the E and the ESE to SE later this week across our Region. Modest moisture return begins late week as a return flow off the Gulf becomes established. While most of the Gulf is void of deep tropical moisture due to a persistent NW flow aloft, some meager increase of Gulf moisture will slowly move inland over the coming weekend ahead of a approaching front expected to arrive late Sunday into Monday depending on which model is more correct. Capping again appears to be an issue, so rain chances may be limited.

Looking ahead to later in March there are some indications that the East Coast trough that has been present for the past 5-6 weeks will move out into the Atlantic and a better chance of long fetch moisture flow from the Gulf becomes established and rids us of this dry NW flow we've experienced for many weeks. The ensembles are in fairly good agreement that a Western trough will develop in the 6-10 day time frame ending the NW flow aloft that has brought mostly a Continental air mass. With a long fetch Gulf flow and warming temps, perhaps increasing rain chances will return and slowly warming Gulf waters are as sure as the end of Winter and we begin that transition to Spring...finally!

03122013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

03122013 00Z GEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

[unome]

looks like a warm week http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... X%2C%20USA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_holidays_stpats

St Patrick's Day weather

The weather on St. Patricks Day is typically springlike with warm temperatures and occasional showers. Rain has fallen on St. Patricks Day about 28 percent of the time in College Station... 36 percent of the time in Galveston and 43 percent of the time in Houston. Average high temperatures range from the lower 70s over inland areas to the upper 60s along the coast. Average low temperatures range from around 50 well inland to the upper 50s near the coast. Snow has never been reported on St. Patricks Day at any Southeast Texas observation sites.

Southeast Texas typically experiences most severe weather episodes during spring...usually mid-March through May. The last round of severe weather to affect the area on March 17 occurred in 1987. High winds toppled trees and power lines over mainly the northern half of Southeast Texas. The last round of thunderstorms to affect the region on St. Patrick's Day occurred in 1997. These storms did not produce any wind or hail damage... but did produce locally heavy rain especially in coastal areas. The following tables lists the five warmest...coldest and wettest St. Patrick Day's for Houston...Galveston and College Station.

Houston (1892-2012)
Average High: 72.5°F
Average Low: 53.0°F
Average Rainfall: 0.09"

Warmest
88°F 1908
88°F 1907
85°F 1972
84°F 1996
84°F 1921

Coldest
30°F 1900
32°F 1976
33°F 1978
33°F 1892
34°F 1905

Wettest
2.57" 1957
1.73" 1988
0.99" 1975
0.82" 1970
0.77" 1941

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Stagnant weather pattern in place over the region at least into early next week…maybe longer.

High pressure is on control of the local weather and this will result in little day to day variation of the mostly clear skies, cool mornings and mild afternoons with low humidity. Current building surface high will be the final in a series from the north and will push eastward late today allowing winds to veer from the N to E by evening. One last cool morning on Thursday with lows in the 40’s before onshore flow kicks in. Initially the incoming Gulf air mass will be very dry with sprawling high pressure over the SE US sending dry air deep into the Gulf, so not much of a big jump in humidity on Friday. As the large surface high over the eastern US pushes eastward and pressures lower in the plains local winds will turn more SE and S pumping increasingly high moisture and humidity levels into the region over the weekend. Lows will bottom out in the 50’s/60’s over the weekend with highs in the upper 70’s to near 80 as dewpoints climb into the 50’s and then lower 60’s making it feel muggy compared to the recent stretch of dry weather. There will be no chance of rainfall through the entire period as storm system pass well north of our region.

[srainhoutx]

The warming trend continues as winds will turn more southerly off the Gulf and high pressure slides E. Meager moisture returns over the weekend as temps warm to the lower 90's near the Rio Grande Valley and upper 70's to low 80's across the rest of our Region. A weak front will approach Texas late Sunday as a short wave moves across the Plains. The frontal boundary may sag far enough S to near Coastal Texas, but with the main energy far to the N across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes chances are that boundary may stall and wash out before moving back N as a warm front.

The dry/warm zonal pattern continues into next week before a slight pattern change develops and may increase rain chances by late next week, if then. It does appear a SE Ridge will develop causing a long fetch return flow off the Gulf with increasing moisture and higher dew points, so temps in the 80's for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60's seem likely. Hopefully the ensembles are correct in suggesting a trough develops over the Intermountain West and Plains and we can manage to squeeze out some showers later next week. Concern grows as our drought continues with little in the way of substantial rainfall on the horizon.

03142013 00Z Euro Ensembles 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA216.gif

03142013 00ZGEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNA180.gif

[niner21]

We need rain or we're going to be crusty crunchy again this summer.

[wxman57]

At least the GFS is forecasting ONE warm day over the next week. Too bad it's on Monday. The mid 70s will be at least tolerable this weekend as long as we get some sun.