June: Onshore Flow Returns With Increasing Gulf Moisture

[txflagwaver]

OK gonna water ~sigh~

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
854 PM CDT WED JUN 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ALSO ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
BETWEEN THE ALDINE AND PINEHURST AREA AND NORTH OF A MADISONVILLE TO
NEW WAVERLY TO GOODRICH LINE. SOME SPOTS UP NORTH GOT SOME MUCH NEEDED
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE HIGHEST RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES.
EVEN THOUGH THINGS WILL BE WINDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WE`LL NEED TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT IN CASE ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

TOMORROW...WE`LL DO ALL THIS AGAIN...AND HOPEFULLY THOSE OF US RECEIVING
NO RAIN TODAY WILL GET SOME OF THE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

[unome]

I had given up, but we had a nice downpour in Cypress

[biffb816]

I had given up, but we had a nice downpour in Cypress

I was in the indention to the west in the bottom image. The storm slide by me just to the east, then I got hopeful again when the more southern section formed, but that petered out just before it got to me. In the end though, it managed to rain enough to get the porch wet, and the outflow cooled the evening off nicely.

[Andrew]

I am thinking with the vorticity and low around central Texas heading south mixed with the moisture from the gulf today ( Thursday) will be a wet day. I believe that with everything sinking farther south that we should have a really good chance of rain today and with the slow movement of the storms we could see some relatively nice rainfall totals. We will need to keep an eye on the meso analysis to see where boundaries setup to provide the most amount of rain. Places north of I-10 look to have the best shot

P.S.- Very interesting to note that the storms in central/ north Texas have not diminished with the lack of heating.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[srainhoutx]

After a 'teaser event' last evening, things are coming together for an active 36-48 hours. The Euro & GFS have slowed the progression of the mid level low a bit and rainfall chances increase today with the frontal boundary draped across the area. Heavy rainfall with a potential Flash Flood Watch is being mentioned now by HGX and the HPC for tonight into tomorrow as night time rains are possible across areas along and N of the I-10 Corridor from Austin, College Station and points E extending near or just N of Metro Houston as this system is behaving like a decaying tropical system or warm cored low where heavy rains develop closer the center at night and train. Nocturnal showers/storms that Andrew mentioned are ongoing along and S of the I-20 Corridor (Brownwood) and near Waco. These rains and the mid level low look to sag SSE today. Daytime heating and sea breeze activity should fire off rounds of storms later today and continue tonight into Friday. The fly in the ointment will be some potential further development along the Coast Friday into Saturday as the boundary and mid level low/trough linger across SE TX and may well extend into Sunday. The potential is there for just about everyone to see plentiful rains and even pulse severe storms with gusty winds and small hail possible. We may dry a bit on Sunday across the Northern zones, but rain chance may well increase again early next week as another front makes its approach from N TX. Stay Tuned!

[unome]

from EWX Discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO PARTS OF THE AUSTIN METRO AREA
OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...BUT THE AREAS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE RAINS ARE
SHOWING SOME WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS ON IR IMAGERY AND COULD BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED AREA OF 2+ INCH RAINS OVER AREAS
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GEORGETOWN THROUGH DAYBREAK.

[ticka1]

Thursday morning email from Jeff Lindner:

Ingredients coming together for widespread rainfall today-Friday with some heavy.

Slow moving upper level low over NC TX this morning is slowly progressing SE toward the area with a large shield of rainfall extending from NW of Austin to near Dallas. Locally the weak frontal boundary over W LA yesterday has pushed westward mainly due to last evenings thunderstorms outflow and currently extends along a lien from near College Station to Katy to Galveston. Within the last hour thunderstorms have developed over the NW Gulf from offshore of Galveston inland across southern Brazoria and Matagorda counties. Expect numerous outflow boundaries to be produced by the convection to our NW and S/SW this morning and with surface heating over the next few hours, expect decent development likely late this morning across the region. Frontal boundary and other low level boundaries will help to focus storms today into the evening hours.

Tonight-Friday:
Very slow moving upper low moves into the area from the NW. Moisture levels will increase and the threat for sustained heavy rainfall will develop. Current thinking is that our NW/N counties are at greatest risk for some excessive rainfall tonight as convection develop near the low center (this low as taken on some warm core features). Slow storm motions and potential for training near the southern flank of the system along with modest southerly inflow all point to the threat for heavy rainfall tonight. This threat will expand slowly SE on the day Friday to include much of the area. We could see some fairly hefty totals, but where and how much is the question. For now will go with widespread 1-2 inches across the region with isolated 3-4 inches possible.

Upper low tries to exit the area on Saturday, but models have slowed down this progression so decent rainfall coverage may occur again on Saturday especially over the eastern areas. Should start to see less coverage on Sunday as ridging to the SW starts to build into the area.

Will need to closely watch radar trends and rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours. While grounds are fairly dry a flash flood watch may be needed for some portions of the area later tonight or on Friday.

[srainhoutx]

Another little interesting feature is just SSE of Galveston slowly creeping N to NNW and spawning showers/storms a couple of hundred miles out in the Gulf and along the Coast this morning.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It looks like its trying to become more organized srain.

[srainhoutx]

It looks like its trying to become more organized srain.

It's a left over meso vort that rolled off the S Texas Coast yesterday, but it is an interesting little feature none the less...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Central Texas...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
851 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

TXC053-071515-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FA.Y.0063.120607T1351Z-120607T1515Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BURNET-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF BERTRAM
851 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BURNET COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BERTRAM...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CDT

* AT 847 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL BURNET
COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 AND ONE HALF TO THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA...WITH
AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The Highland Lakes need the rain. Keep dumping.

[Portastorm]

The Highland Lakes need the rain. Keep dumping.

They do indeed. The spring rains around here were centered moreso along I-35 and east, while the Hill Country has been drier. That mesoscale is gonna be welcomed by the Hill Country folk.

Meanwhile, looks like we in the Austin metro will be seeing rainfall in the next hour so providing the real-time radar trends continue. (fingers crossed).

[srainhoutx]

While none of the models have done well in this situation and the NAM (WRF/NMM) has been too far S and has been the outlier, it is a tad interesting to see it try to develop a disturbance in the NW Gulf in the short term.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

That's what I keep praying for srain

[ticka1]

That's what I keep praying for srain

Me too.

[Rip76]

A. Leaving Corpus, nothing to report...

B. Srain, this disturbance that the NAM is digging up, is this the current cluster of clouds in the
Gulf now?
Tough to see on the iPhone.

[srainhoutx]

A. Leaving Corpus, nothing to report...

B. Srain, this disturbance that the NAM is digging up, is this the current cluster of clouds in the
Gulf now?
Tough to see on the iPhone.

Yes it is...somewhat...it also appears to be related to some energy dropping S with the dying MCS from the Austin/San Marcos area along the elongating trough/mid level low. Stay safe driving back...


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1021 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

TXZ233-234-071615-
GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
1021 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES...

AT 1016 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

[Rip76]

Grrrrr.