Wx Infinity Forums

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:13 pm Man ita confusing..nws says 20% of precipitation..tv guys say anywhere from 40 to 60% and wxman57 says zero .....ugh

It is frustrating because I am looking at YouTube Videos from Pow Ponder and it shows post frontal precipitation but the model he is showing in the video does believe is the GFS which is probably too warm so we will see.

Well we are inching towards the weekend where confidence gets a bit stronger. Based on today, I'm afraid folks have been setting themselves up for yet another disappointment.
At this juncture, getting on the same page between Mets is unobtainable. The 0% vs. 60% is a bit concerning, I'll admit.

I urge the new folks to take what you see and read with a grain of salt.

Chances are absolutely not zero, thats just wxman57 for you lol, at this range its more important to focus on the mesocale runs rather than the globals, at least temp wise, the NAM has freezing precip breaking out faster in se texas compared to the globals, id say 50-60% chance for freezing rain is respectable right now

user:null wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:25 pm

walsean1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:37 pm How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:39 pmHigh is in the morning.

Ironically, while both the CMC and ICON have been the two coldest models (so far) for this upcoming cold spell, they actually feature a much stronger Sunday warmup into 60s/70s.

Meanwhile, the GFS and especially the EURO are actually much closer to the colder Sunday forecast depicted by the NAM12km.

My guess is, at some point tomorrow all models will show a frontal passage before 19z Sunday.

looks like the 18z NAM is coming in a bit faster than its 12z run, also much more aggressive with widespread freezing rain/ sleet

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:09 pm looks like the 18z NAM is coming in a bit faster than its 12z run, also much more aggressive with widespread freezing rain/ sleet

Yes. Puts a lot of it way into south Texas

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:09 pm looks like the 18z NAM is coming in a bit faster than its 12z run, also much more aggressive with widespread freezing rain/ sleet

I go below freezing between 9z and 12z Sunday. I stay there per the NAM. I expect it will be colder than what NAM shows. NAM typically is pretty good within 36 hours and its error sprays over that.

Boy that CPC forecast looks pretty damn good today!!

Poster on 2k.."Nam is most likely not going to happen!! That’s too far south… and wxman said no ice for se Texas so we’re good" boy the stupidity sometimes..

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:33 pm Poster on 2k.."Nam is most likely not going to happen!! That’s too far south… and wxman said no ice for se Texas so we’re good" boy the stupidity sometimes..

I think it was said tongue in cheek

Looks like another one has fallen victim to wxman57’s sarcasm

18Z NAM with frozen precip breaking out Sunday night.

If those fronts from the 12z GFS today verify along with todays 8-14 day precipitation forecast, oh boy!!

don wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:40 pm 18Z NAM with frozen precip breaking out Sunday night.

That’s STJ driven precip wringing into cold air

You know MoCo, this is going to be a tricky forecast and will give the NWS fits all the way until the event. Because P Type events are so hard to predict in our area, they will be guzzling the Pepto Bismol on this.

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:59 pm You know MoCo, this is going to be a tricky forecast and will give the NWS fits all the way until the event. Because P Type events are so hard to predict in our area, they will be guzzling the Pepto Bismol on this.

This is a now cast forecast. Completely dry or a 1/2 inch of ice wouldn’t surprise me.

These forecasts are impossible in a Nino, IMO.

So r we counting on the sbj to give us precip? I thought we were watching a disturbance south of Alaska or something a cpl days ago?

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:01 pm

tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:59 pm You know MoCo, this is going to be a tricky forecast and will give the NWS fits all the way until the event. Because P Type events are so hard to predict in our area, they will be guzzling the Pepto Bismol on this.

This is a now cast forecast. Completely dry or a 1/2 inch of ice wouldn’t surprise me.

These forecasts are impossible in a Nino, IMO.

Agreed. Maybe a box of Pepto Bismol...LOL...And with the potential business/school closings...ouch...they will be earning combat pay.

Nws took away my 20% freezing rain and updated with 30% of showers and a high of 41 on monday. Wtf lol

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:03 pm So r we counting on the sbj to give us precip? I thought we were watching a disturbance south of Alaska or something a cpl days ago?

It’s 2 separate things. Mexico can always bring us surprises.