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Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:30 am
by unome
10 AM Key Messages for
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Beta
150333_key_messages_sm - Copy.png
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:31 am
by Rip76
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:22 am
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:13 am
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:11 am
That's one hell of a vortex then because there were finding similar obs well removed from it to the w.
It may be interesting to watch the evolution if convection persists.
Yeah it can easily be deceiving.
And hopefully nobody misinterprets my posts thinking I'm saying it rapidly intensifying. I just wasn't expecting it to have so many legitimate obs this strong this morning after the recon run last night.
50-60 mph sustained winds with higher gusts is no joke. Especially if the duration is for a lengthy time which not only will cause severe beach erosion but it has the potential for a larger range of power loss.
Is recon out there right now? If so, where can I look at these numbers?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:35 am
by srainhoutx
Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:31 am
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:22 am
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:13 am
It may be interesting to watch the evolution if convection persists.
Yeah it can easily be deceiving.
And hopefully nobody misinterprets my posts thinking I'm saying it rapidly intensifying. I just wasn't expecting it to have so many legitimate obs this strong this morning after the recon run last night.
50-60 mph sustained winds with higher gusts is no joke. Especially if the duration is for a lengthy time which not only will cause severe beach erosion but it has the potential for a larger range of power loss.
Is recon out there right now? If so, where can I look at these numbers?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:43 am
by txbear
That wind field looks impressive. I was surprised to see those peak winds in the recon data set given the lack of real organization yesterday. Will be interesting see how everything reacts to that, and if Beta keeps the convention up. Could we see it briefly stack before it makes it inland?
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:57 am
by Cromagnum
Maybe its my eyes but looks like track shifted closer to us and lifts out of here slower.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:00 am
by djmike
First Beta band in Beaumont. Drop more than I expected and winds gusts were pretty good too.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:02 am
by Rip76
Getting some rain here in Friendswood as well.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:04 am
by jasons2k
We just went out on a walk outside. It's clear off to the NW but I observed mid and high-level clouds racing rapidly to the northwest..quicker than I expected.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:09 am
by Texaspirate11
Raining by the bay. Water is almost to our dock now
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:11 am
by djmike
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:57 am
Maybe its my eyes but looks like track shifted closer to us and lifts out of here slower.
It did. Last track was right into Matagorda Bay. Track shifted east a tad, now north of Matagorda Bay.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:13 am
by Kingwood36
Getting sprinkles here in surfside...wind is kicking pretty steady and water is over the roads already
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:16 am
by djmike
Qpf 7 day removed the crazy rain totals. Now looks to be more manageable. Curious to see if it will continue lowering or increase again as it gets closer.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:29 am
by Kingwood36
Hurricane watch dropped
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:31 am
by DoctorMu
Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:59 am
Scott, is the new center farther north ?
No, the center is still south of the storms.
But the system has taken a westerly turn.
https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... nitsst=Off
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 212,27.097
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:34 am
by DoctorMu
davidiowx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:19 am
Beta definitely has some dry air to deal with (no secret there) but that moist air down in the BoC is interesting. Anyone think that blob could end up helping feed Beta some additional moisture?
Beta is beating back the dry air like a machete in the jungle.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:36 am
by Cromagnum
Work in Freeport said business as usual this week. I think folks are sleeping on this one.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:37 am
by Rip76
srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:35 am
Rip76 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:31 am
Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:22 am
Yeah it can easily be deceiving.
And hopefully nobody misinterprets my posts thinking I'm saying it rapidly intensifying. I just wasn't expecting it to have so many legitimate obs this strong this morning after the recon run last night.
50-60 mph sustained winds with higher gusts is no joke. Especially if the duration is for a lengthy time which not only will cause severe beach erosion but it has the potential for a larger range of power loss.
Is recon out there right now? If so, where can I look at these numbers?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Awesome, thanks.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:40 am
by Kingwood36
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:34 am
davidiowx wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 10:19 am
Beta definitely has some dry air to deal with (no secret there) but that moist air down in the BoC is interesting. Anyone think that blob could end up helping feed Beta some additional moisture?
Beta is beating back the dry air like a machete in the jungle.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24
I noticed that...how will that affect the storm
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:53 am
by Scott747
I wouldn't call it a relocation but the last fix was a decent amount to the NW of the previous one. Pressure was up a mb though.
Recon is going thru the nw side where the earlier and stronger obs were observed. Should also have a new fix in about 20 min.
Re: September 2020: Tracking TS Beta
Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2020 11:55 am
by DoctorMu
That's a fairly robust moving through Liberty and Pasadena now. The cloud bank is moving into Magnolia. I can see it to the SE.
Near Chamber of Commerce conditions for the moment with temperature in the 70s, dry air, NE breeze.
The outer band should reach us by 4 pm