Hurricane Beryl

[tireman4]

USTropics wrote:
I can't stress this enough, but operational models cannot capture the full array of possible scenarios with Beryl. When forecast track becomes dependent on intensity (as the case will be here), this can result in less confidence in track and higher track error. Analyzing and understanding the range of possibilities from ensembles will lead to a higher forecast skill.

There is some slight radar attenuation here (more of a mid-level capture), but this shows Beryl tracked over the southern side of Cozumel this morning (north of most model guidance):
https://i.imgur.com/UbpWS9l.gif

Most model guidance even from 00z didn't full capture this. This was from the 00z early guidance last night:
https://i.imgur.com/lPCiWIM.png

The trend from the ECMWF ensembles captures this better. This is an animation of the past 5 runs, which has also shifted northward:
https://i.imgur.com/iYHvlW0.gif

This puts Beryl in the northern cluster of ECMWF ensemble members currently. It's unknown the structural core of Beryl after it's track over the Yucatan, but from current radar images from Cozumel, the eastern eyewall still remains intact (note, it's difficult for the radar to penetrate through the core to assess the western or southern quadrants):
https://i.imgur.com/VlrCXTT.png

Taking a step back to look at the bigger picture here, we have our aforementioned ULL backing to the west towards Mexico. This will impart southwesterly flow at the upper-levels (orange), meanwhile Beryl is moving WNW with the low-level flow (pink). We can already see this occurring with the outflowing banding pattern to the north of Beryl:
https://i.imgur.com/JgMRppO.png

The net result will be ~20 kt of directional shear, as we can see from the HWRF sounding as Beryl departs the coast and emerges into the GOM:
https://i.imgur.com/JW1STrc.png

This is where things get interesting. While the ULL will initially shear Beryl, in about 24 hours it will have moved over northeastern Mexico and begin to weaken. If the structure of Beryl remains organized, we could see some slow strengthening over the 24-48 hour period. The HWRF again captures this evolution well:
https://i.ibb.co/8sJdtnL/hwrf-p-uv200-02-L-fh24-78.gif

After 48 hours, as we also see in the loop above, there is a sudden slow down as Beryl approaches the coast, and a stronger Beryl at this this point will begin to feel the northward tug of the upper-level weakness. How vertically deep Beryl is and how far west the system progresses to this point will have significant track implications. One last note, as Beryl approaches the coast, shear will be minimal and SSTs begin to increase. We can see in the sea surface temperature graphic below, this region has some of the highest SSTs in the Atlantic currently. This would likely cause a near ideal environment for Beryl to strengthen on approach to the coast (and I don't think anyone needs a reminder on storms undergoing RI in this region):
https://i.imgur.com/Nr40Jao.png

[tireman4]

I don’t understand what took the NHC so long. Secondary troughs and their impacts are poorly-modeled but it showed-up 3 days ago. Dead give away. Old forecasting rules vs. model-hugging I guess…

Dont forget the NAVY!!! Also, the Japanese model too.

What does the navy and Japanese model show?

Mostly the same thing the ICON did. Upper Texas Coast hits

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall. The
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt. For the next 24 h or so,
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern
United States. After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This motion should bring the
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h. Subsequently, a
northward motion through the break appears likely. While the track
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl. A
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system
would probably continue more northwestward. Overall the guidance
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the
right of the previous forecast. Additional adjustments of the
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. After that,
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h
and continue until landfall. One important note is that the GFS
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than
forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas
today. Residents there should shelter in place until these
life-threatening conditions subside.

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in
portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast
late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast. Storm Surge, Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much
of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the
advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the
water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.7N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 21.4N 90.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1200Z 22.5N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.6N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.6N 96.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.8N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR COAST
96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 98.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Scott747]

New track is now between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay.

[brazoriatx]

New track is now between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay.

Ya, it's not done moving yet. I suspect it will move again at the 4

[Pas_Bon]

Guys and gals, if you are on the Upper Texas coast…..Matagorda to Galveston Bay…..you need to gather supplies and get ready to enact final preparations quickly if needed. I am worried today that this will be upper Tx landfall. I am not a professional.

[Stormlover2020]

Icon will be Galveston Texas wow

[Stormlover2020]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ic ... Jb3rEk.png

[AtascocitaWX]

So at work.and the discussion is what's worst? A direct Hit or the dirty side ? Let me know your thoughts

[Scott747]

12z ICON is up through Surfside/San Luis Pass and across the Houston metroplex.

[srainhoutx]

Everything I've seen so far indicates Beryl will be quickly moving through to the NE. Remember a faster motion means less time in rough weather conditions. One positive thing that Derecho did was cleared out a bunch of tree growth helping the amount of time power may be out.

[Cromagnum]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

[Scott747]

So at work.and the discussion is what's worst? A direct Hit or the dirty side ? Let me know your thoughts

On this trajectory a ICON track would be just about the worst for any major.

The 'doomsday' scenario has always been a storm moving up 288.

[Scott747]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

This ain't no Carla.

Not by a long shot.

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

Not even close.

[Cromagnum]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

Not even close.

Why do you say that? It's gonna enter the Gulf as a strong Cat 1 or 2 and have plenty of time to strengthen to a major before likely hitting somewhere between Corpus and Rockport.

I realize Carla skirted the Yucatan and hit Port O'Connor, but this could be nearly the same path.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully the ICON is too far E. I wouldn’t get much of anything out of it with that track.

[Cpv17]

I’m hoping it just stays a weak cane. I’m fine with the NHC track right now. That would provide us some beneficial rains and not a whole lot of wind.

[tireman4]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

This ain't no Carla.

Not by a long shot.

Carla was a beast. An absolute beast. Her name, of course, is retired. My mom was a senior in high school at Texas City and my dad was a junior at UNT. He has told me many stories about her.

https://youtu.be/SMjueXVV_z0?si=dz7z318YOyZJ0wv5

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Carla all over again.

Not even close.

Why do you say that? It's gonna enter the Gulf as a strong Cat 1 or 2 and have plenty of time to strengthen to a major before likely hitting somewhere between Corpus and Rockport.

I realize Carla skirted the Yucatan and hit Port O'Connor, but this could be nearly the same path.

Carla formed in the SW Caribbean and became a very large Hurricane. Carla moved very slowly in the Western Gulf and actually stalled or looped S of Matagorda for 24 to 36 hours. Carla completely filled the Western Gulf and the closest comparison in size was Hurricane Allen. Beryl is a small Hurricane.