September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Scott747]

Sunday 2PM Tropical Update: Be prepared for some changes to the forecast track coming out at 4PM.

The center appears to be consolidating about 95 miles to the north-northeast of the last known center fix. If this center takes over, it will cause the track to shift more eastward, the landfall timing to speed up, and the rate of intensification may quicken.

The computer models that ran earlier today did not have recon flight data ingested into them, and they likely missed the new center that is forming. In other words, we can't put too much faith in the precise rain totals and wind speeds for your location because the path will adjust.

Recon flight data will go into the computer models runs this evening, and if they correctly ingest the new center, that will give us more confidence in the computer model output.

Stay tuned.

abc13.com/tropicalupdate

You have a link for this because recon just recently left and shows nothing of the sort?

[srainhoutx]

Travis Herzog on Facebook Scott

[christinac2016]

What will Montgomery county the woodlands conroe see from this?

[Stratton20]

Scott747 I agree with you , seeing what recon found on tropical tidbits, and they found the center alright, Travis Is a fantastic meteorologist but I think he’s wrong here, I really dont think the hurricane hunters would miss if a new center was forming

[Scott747]

Travis Herzog on Facebook Scott

I'm assuming that he must of made that statement before taking in account the 1 pm new update/fix which made it confusing.

[Kingwood36]

So the center didn't move?

[Scott747]

So the center didn't move?

There never was a real center fix by recon before that first advisory. I believe that the NHC was ready to initiate the PTC at 10 with an 'estimated' center and while recon was in the early stages of the mission found winds supportive of an upgrade to a ts before making a real center fix.

So in essence the advisory at 4 will be the first one with a 'center.'

Otherwise I have no arugements with what Travis posted it was just a little confusing with the update 1pm fix.

[Texaspirate11]

So is it coming to galveston

[tsb2107]

From NWS Houston

[DoctorMu]

Hunters found no center, because there's probably no true center.

Still troughy. Still likely to coastal hug...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 24.30,1897

[Cpv17]

So is it coming to galveston

Galveston is going to get dumped on.

[DoctorMu]

From NWS Houston

That's closer to GFS and the way I've been seeing St. Nick.

[Kingwood36]

Hunters found no center, because there's probably no true center.

Still troughy. Still likely to coastal hug...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 24.30,1897

So herzog's claim about reformation was bs...

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu NHS has us getting 2-4 inches in BCS, Id definitely be happy with that

[Cpv17]

Hunters found no center, because there's probably no true center.

Still troughy. Still likely to coastal hug...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 24.30,1897

So herzog's claim about reformation was bs...

I’m not sure what the heck is going on. Even on Storm2k they’re saying a center relocation is coming.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu NHS has us getting 2-4 inches in BCS, Id definitely be happy with that

It's 1.6 - 2 inches, but we'll take it. Should keep highs down in the 80s. My grass is turning brown and yellow. Spot watering today.

There's a bit less dry air in the mid levels that anticipated, and retreating.

We'll remain in the NE quad for the duration probably. Light bands. The lack of development *could* work in our favor. We'll see.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[DoctorMu]

Hunters found no center, because there's probably no true center.

Still troughy. Still likely to coastal hug...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 24.30,1897

So herzog's claim about reformation was bs...

I’m not sure what the heck is going on. Even on Storm2k they’re saying a center relocation is coming.

Not at the surface. At least not yet.

[davidiowx]

From wxman57

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

[DoctorMu]

From wxman57

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

Welp. There ya go. Onward to a coast hugging mess.

[Cpv17]

From wxman57

I'm not seeing any center reformation. Center is west of the convection due to persistent WSW shear. Nicholas is right on-track. Consensus model has a more NNW center location and shifted to west of Matagorda Bay. Expect NHC to follow shortly and adjust their track westward.

Remain calm..

Thanks for posting that. You beat me to it lol