February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[txsnowmaker]

Thanks for all your updates Andrew! It is much appreciated!

I concur! Looking forward to reading your interpretation of tonight's Euro run.

[helloitsb]

When does the Euro come out? (Pending that it has not already) would like to see if it is showing the same thing as the Canadian, if so we may have some interesting days ahead.

[Andrew]

Thanks for all your updates Andrew! It is much appreciated!

No problem. Euro is showing temps around -4C on Wednesday Morning. Also seems to be indicating a lot of cloud cover.

EDIT: Euro Showing moisture Fri while the upper levels are freezing ground level is close to freezing. hmm euro may be on to something.


EDIT AGAIN: Euro is showing possible wintry weather (most likely snow)

[Rich]

When does the Euro come out? (Pending that it has not already) would like to see if it is showing the same thing as the Canadian, if so we may have some interesting days ahead.

The 0Z Euro should be running now.

[Rich]

Thanks for all your updates Andrew! It is much appreciated!

No problem. Euro is showing temps around -4C on Wednesday Morning. Also seems to be indicating a lot of cloud cover.

Nice Hopefully it starts to trend the way of the Canadian.

[Andrew]

Thanks for all your updates Andrew! It is much appreciated!

No problem. Euro is showing temps around -4C on Wednesday Morning. Also seems to be indicating a lot of cloud cover.

Nice Hopefully it starts to trend the way of the Canadian.

Read above it does.

[txsnowmaker]

Well, this is certainly a positive development to close out the day. Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow's 12z runs show, especially with the winter recon data factored into the GFS.

[Andrew]

Well, this is certainly a positive development to close out the day. Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow's 12z runs show, especially with the winter recon data factored into the GFS.

I do too. Alright I am tired and have to get up early in the morning tomm so see everyone later.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. It appears things are progressing fairly much as expected regarding the Arctic air mass. One wrinkle is the faster movement and arrival of the frontal boundary as noted by NWS offices across the region this morning. The cold front should arrive into SE TX early Tuesday morning. The SPC already has a Slight Risk for severe storms in place, prior to the boundary reaching our Northern zones, for most of SE TX and points E. One concern I have is that the models are too progressive (too fast) with the arrival of that big Upper Low noted in N CA this morning. A slowing down and strengthening of that feature and a sped up frontal arrival, could open a can of worms regarding the sensible weather for much of TX. For now, the general theme is to stick to the forecast and expect quickly drying conditions after the front, thus ending any chance of wintry weather for our area. Temps do look cold, though. Upper teens to low 20’s for areas N of DT Metro Houston seem likely and HGX is mentioning a freeze on Galveston Island. Today should give us a better idea concerning all the players as a Winter RECON mission data should be available for the 12Z NCEP (American) model suite. With all that said, this has all the makings of a changeable forecast in some finer details, but the very cold air seems to be a certainty. There will be additional RECON missions today and tomorrow (a C-130 flight) and additional data will be ingested into the guidance output offering additional information and fine tuning of guidance. Stay tuned. More cold air looks to be heading S as the week ahead progresses. We are stuck in a pattern that will remain for the foreseeable future.

HGX:

THE MUCH TOUTED
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POURING DOWN THROUGH COLORADO AND NEBRASKA
HAS SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT NEARS EXPECT THE
MOIST AIR ACROSS TO COMBINE WITH LIFT SWEEPING EAST THROUGH TO
TEXAS AND THE FRONT TO DRIVE A CHILLY RAIN WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE REGION. THE NORTHERN AREAS STAND THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON THEN DRYING OUT RAPIDLY BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG ISSUE THEN WILL BE THE COLD. VERY STRONG CAA
WILL BE ON TAP AND MAY NEED WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
850 TEMPS FALL FROM 12C TUESDAY TO 0C 00Z THURSDAY THEN DOWN TO -2
TO -6C BY 06Z FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WITH THE CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY
VERY LITTLE WARMING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AND HIGHS MAY ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN DROP TO 20S INLAND AREA WIDE.
NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE LOWER 20S WITH A HARD FREEZE AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE UPPER 20S. A FREEZE MAY OCCUR ON
GALVESTON ISLAND. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS LOOKING AS THOUGH THE S/W
PASSING BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL HELP TO SCOUR OUT ANY LEFT OVER
MOISTURE AND CLEAR THE SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET. COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR. AT PRESENT AM FORECASTING MINS FRIDAY MORNING TO BE A
VERY COLD 17-20 DEGREES NORTH...21-25 DEGREES FOR THE 59 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWARD AND A FREEZE ON THE ISLAND WITH A LOW OF 31 AND AT LEAST
3 OR 4 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES THERE. THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
HIGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND WARMER TEMPS
ARRIVE. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
RAIN CHANCES START TO INCREASE SUNDAY.

[wxman57]

00Z Euro is similar to the GFS and UK in developing a Gulf low late in the week - but the low is way too far out in the Gulf for us to have any moisture overhead. I still don't see any good chance for anything frozen here (except me).

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM suggest a slowing and rapid deepening Major Winter Storm across The Central/Southern Plains. The dynamics are most impressive and there will likey be a tremendous amount of wind energy with this storm. The Arctic boundary sinks very far S on the NAM to include Monterrey, MX and points S on that model. Temps are very cold as well.

[redneckweather]

Frigid arctic air coming down with no moisture=down right boring times ahead. The only way any of us is going to have any winter fun next week is to water down your back deck and do a little homeade ice skating.

[srainhoutx]

La La Land WRF suggests a trend that has been 'hinted' by the NWS offices regarding left over Upper Level disturbances to our W for later in the week. We will see...

[MRG93415]

Could there be a problem with Icing on the roads Wednesday morning??? I seen that here in NW Houston we are going to have a 60% chance of rain on Tuesday and then the temps get down into the 20's over night. Could we have some icing on the over passes and roadways the next morning or will the ground be to warm for this.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...sure is a lot of northerly winds to our N and the front is in TX already?

[weatherguy425]

Srain- with the potential for thick cloud cover and strong CAA, would you think that highs in the lower 40's for the northern metro may be a little to warm?

[srainhoutx]

Srain- with the potential for thick cloud cover and strong CAA, would you think that highs in the lower 40's for the northern metro may be a little to warm?

The wise thing to do is take all this day by day. There are so many variables and dynamics at play making for a difficult forecasting challenge at best. You can see that the NWS and everyone, for that matter, really do not know what the final solution will be. As I stated this morning, this sure smells like a very changeable forecast to me, with many uncertainties. Of course, those are just my thoughts.

[redneckweather]

That's not the advertised arctic air spilling into Texas at the present time is it?

Nevermind...it's not.

[jabcwb2]

Could there be a problem with Icing on the roads Wednesday morning??? I seen that here in NW Houston we are going to have a 60% chance of rain on Tuesday and then the temps get down into the 20's over night. Could we have some icing on the over passes and roadways the next morning or will the ground be to warm for this.

Good question!

[TexasMetBlake]

Roads **shouldn't** be a problem. With temps in the mid 70s the past few days, the roads are very, very warm and will take more than an hour or two at freezing or below to freeze them over. Not to mention, it is going to get really windy and the dry air will evaporate the moisture long before the roads get cold enough to become an ice rink.

Now keep in mind that if the low is slower and the front is faster than forecast, then we could have issues but that is NOT the forecast at this time. Things change. Stay tuned.