Then you should start doing so as soon as possible
Hurricane Beryl
Corpus for GFS
Near Corpus, Rockport for Euro-AI
Dayum. ICON has Galveston as a CAT2
Be prepared on the coast folks!
Near Corpus, Rockport for Euro-AI
Dayum. ICON has Galveston as a CAT2
Be prepared on the coast folks!
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AtascocitaWX
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Well I said earlier in the week, ICON always seems to pick up earlier then the other models on things. May not always be right with exacts but close. But it has been the most consistent model all week showing a middle/upper tx hit.
Now is the intensity right?
Now is the intensity right?
HMON: Rockport
HWRF: Rockport
Don't go back to Rockport/ville
https://youtu.be/9Nzl8EXGODc?si=7N2nCFf-whC4DPXQ
HAFS-A: Elon Musk-ville
HAFS-B: Corpus
HWRF: Rockport
Don't go back to Rockport/ville
https://youtu.be/9Nzl8EXGODc?si=7N2nCFf-whC4DPXQ
HAFS-A: Elon Musk-ville
HAFS-B: Corpus
Beryl will spend less time over the Yucatan. Be ready, folks.AtascocitaWX wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:20 am Well I said earlier in the week, ICON always seems to pick up earlier then the other models on things. May not always be right with exacts but close. But it has been the most consistent model all week showing a middle/upper tx hit.
Now is the intensity right?
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tireman4
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TEXANS—the entire TX coast is now in the cone. Models inching northward. You need to have a hurricane plan of action. Hurricane watches for the Texas coast are likely this weekend. While STX has the higher chance from C. Christi south, CTX near Port A can’t be ruled out. #beryl
I've already guaranteed a lot of rain in CLL by mowing and watering the lawn yesterday and last night.
Its still early to call it since its barely into the Yucatan but so far Id like to give Travis Herzog some credit. He has been calling for this potential north shift for days and done a great job of explaining why and not necessarily just hugging a specific model. I don't read his post as "hype" like some do. It comes across more like hype when it contrast with other local Mets that are confidently calling it a Mexico storm before its even to Jamaica. Id hate to see Rockport get hit again as it took years to even partially recover.
Definitely a northward jump again in latest models. IMO I can see NHC making Corpus the landfall at the next update. That also means more time over water, closer to SETX keeps putting us closer to the dirtier side. My concern is the further N the track keeps shifting, the more time over water! Also IMO I can see the possibility of watches being extended all the way to the LA border. JMO!
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
6Z EURO also shows Port Aransas/Rockport
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AtascocitaWX
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She looks to be moving wnw ,more time over water.
We could looking at a cat 3 at landfall
We could looking at a cat 3 at landfall
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rselby0654
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Hey everyone! I am currently in Miami, and my flight back to Houston is supposed to arrive at 1:58 pm on July 9. We will see what happens! I have a feeling Beryl could be Harvey 2.0 or Ike 2.0. The system is very resilient, and once again they are totally wrong on the strength of Beryl when it hits Texas. It will be a category 3, maybe stronger, and will make landfall north of the current forecast. Please prepare folks! 
I don’t understand what took the NHC so long. Secondary troughs and their impacts are poorly-modeled but it showed-up 3 days ago. Dead give away. Old forecasting rules vs. model-hugging I guess…
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tireman4
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Eric Berger
@SpaceCityWX
The track for Hurricane Beryl has shifted northward during the last 24 hours. This does increase the threat of significant impacts to the Greater Houston area, but we continue to think the system will be mostly manageable locally.
@SpaceCityWX
The track for Hurricane Beryl has shifted northward during the last 24 hours. This does increase the threat of significant impacts to the Greater Houston area, but we continue to think the system will be mostly manageable locally.
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rselby0654
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What does the navy and Japanese model show?tireman4 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:24 amDont forget the NAVY!!! Also, the Japanese model too.
The gap between the ridges showed up 5 days ago with the FROPA/trough not much later. The Death Ridge has never really set up so far, so I treated the set-up more like late August (vs. early July)... with a weakening DR over Aggieland and a weak but attractive trough that was a magnet for a stronger hurricane. The other clue was the impressive outflow of Beryl in the Caribbean. She looked like a west Pacific typhoon for awhile! Beryl battled against the shear effectively. IMO only the mountains of Jamaica prevent a CAT 4 or 5 upon landfall on Cozumel/Yucatan.
Timmer had the respect for Beryl as a powerful vortex that she deserved. I lived in NC enough to respect powerful tropical systems and note more of a Bermuda high to the east and descending trough. As you said - dead giveaway.
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tireman4
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Matt Lanza
Hurricane Beryl (< 100 mph, WNW 15 mph)
Beryl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum. It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean. Beryl will steadily weaken over land today and is expected to come off the Yucatan as a tropical storm tonight.
Beryl is maintaining its core while weakening over the Yucatan.
Despite weakening to a tropical storm, it is likely that Beryl will not be starting from scratch once in the Gulf. Its core should remain fairly in tact, and it will not take much to allow it to begin to feel the warm Gulf waters again and begin re-intensifying as it comes west northwest.
Beryl’s future track
Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days. I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what. For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains. Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to “feel” the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.
48 hour change map of 500 mb heights (20,000 feet up) shows a stronger Plains trough since Wednesday, which is likely aiding in a farther north track of Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast.
So what exactly does this mean for Beryl’s forecast track? When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas.
Beryl’s forecast landfall appears to be narrowing to a corridor between Matagorda Bay and Port Mansfield, TX north of the Rio Grande Valley.
The problem is two-fold. First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what. A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine. A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain. Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts. Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts. My hope is that we’ll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.
How strong will Beryl get?
Beryl’s intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan. Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify. The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it’s also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.
Ocean heat content in the southwest Gulf is meaningful, but less intense than what Beryl experienced in the Caribbean.
Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf. Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm. Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore. The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with. I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.
In addition, while we don’t currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA. We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto’s impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.
Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern
In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done. Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.
The current NOAA rainfall forecast for Beryl maxes out around 6 to 8 inches in South Texas, but this is likely to increase and shift around some. (NOAA WPC)
Beryl will not stall, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.
The bottom line?
For folks in the Rio Grande Valley: If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast.
For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi: Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed.
For folks in the Matagorda Bay area: Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area.
For folks in the Houston area: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding.
We will have another update late this afternoon.
Hurricane Beryl (< 100 mph, WNW 15 mph)
Beryl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum. It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean. Beryl will steadily weaken over land today and is expected to come off the Yucatan as a tropical storm tonight.
Beryl is maintaining its core while weakening over the Yucatan.
Despite weakening to a tropical storm, it is likely that Beryl will not be starting from scratch once in the Gulf. Its core should remain fairly in tact, and it will not take much to allow it to begin to feel the warm Gulf waters again and begin re-intensifying as it comes west northwest.
Beryl’s future track
Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days. I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what. For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains. Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to “feel” the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.
48 hour change map of 500 mb heights (20,000 feet up) shows a stronger Plains trough since Wednesday, which is likely aiding in a farther north track of Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast.
So what exactly does this mean for Beryl’s forecast track? When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas.
Beryl’s forecast landfall appears to be narrowing to a corridor between Matagorda Bay and Port Mansfield, TX north of the Rio Grande Valley.
The problem is two-fold. First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what. A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine. A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain. Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts. Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts. My hope is that we’ll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.
How strong will Beryl get?
Beryl’s intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan. Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify. The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it’s also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.
Ocean heat content in the southwest Gulf is meaningful, but less intense than what Beryl experienced in the Caribbean.
Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf. Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm. Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore. The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with. I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.
In addition, while we don’t currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA. We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto’s impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.
Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern
In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done. Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.
The current NOAA rainfall forecast for Beryl maxes out around 6 to 8 inches in South Texas, but this is likely to increase and shift around some. (NOAA WPC)
Beryl will not stall, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.
The bottom line?
For folks in the Rio Grande Valley: If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast.
For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi: Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed.
For folks in the Matagorda Bay area: Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area.
For folks in the Houston area: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding.
We will have another update late this afternoon.
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AtascocitaWX
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Ustropics just post a great explanation of what to expect with Berly the next 48 hours with what she has to deal with over in 2k forums. Ripe conditions as she approached the coast for RI. Maybe Tireman can post it in here. I ain't good with that stuff.