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Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:49 pm
by srainhoutx
Possible center. Waiting for vortex message...and then going to bed!
02:54:30Z 19.233N 91.217W 924.8 mb
(~ 27.31 inHg) 608 meters
(~ 1,995 feet) 991.0 mb
(~ 29.26 inHg)
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:51 pm
by Ptarmigan
I wonder why they did not issue a tropical storm warning for Yucatan Peninsula since tropical storm force winds could be felt there.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:52 pm
by texoz
I've been impressed with the size of this system. For storm that took a long time to form, and has yet to reach hurricane status, it has an enormous footprint. However, the latest sat images look like it's getting squeezed a bit from the NW.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 10:58 pm
by srainhoutx
texoz wrote:I've been impressed with the size of this system. For storm that took a long time to form, and has yet to reach hurricane status, it has an enormous footprint. However, the latest sat images look like it's getting squeezed a bit from the NW.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:00 pm
by Mr. T
The 0z GFS through 78 is at the same position as the 18z run. No changes to the track so far...
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:02 pm
by wxdata
txsnowmaker wrote:I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.
That's a forecast model they run locally. Channel 11 calls theirs "Super Microcast." Both forecasts come from raw data right off the NAM. When Ike was heading our way, the NAM kept forecasting a hit near Matagorda Bay, so we never could air the forecast. If you believe in the NAM's forecast, then you'll buy right into channel 13's forecast..
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:18 pm
by Andrew
Operational GFS south of Galveston:
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:18 pm
by Mr. T
The parallel GFS shifted south and shows a landfall south of Brownsville
OP GFS looks the same, Upper Texas Coast hit
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:22 pm
by redfish1
when is the next model run coming out?
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:23 pm
by Andrew
Mr. T wrote:The parallel GFS shifted south and shows a landfall south of Brownsville
OP GFS looks the same, Upper Texas Coast hit
Thing is it still has the trof digging hard
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:25 pm
by srainhoutx
redfish1 wrote:when is the next model run coming out?
Models will run until around 2 ish...(AM)
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:30 pm
by Snowman
this storm looks to have stalled out. i dont believe any model predicted that. would this give more time for the trough to dig and make a northerly track more likely?
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:31 pm
by Mr. T
Pretty big shift south by the 0z parallel GFS
Euro is probably the winner, here...
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:33 pm
by txsnowmaker
wxdata wrote:txsnowmaker wrote:I sure hope Ed is right on landfall being far from Houston. Did anyone catch Ch. 13's on-air met a few minutes ago? He said their futurecast is showing a more northerly movement toward the Upper Texas coast. He also intimated that he would not be surprised to see the NHC cone move further north at the 4am udpdate.
That's a forecast model they run locally. Channel 11 calls theirs "Super Microcast." Both forecasts come from raw data right off the NAM. When Ike was heading our way, the NAM kept forecasting a hit near Matagorda Bay, so we never could air the forecast. If you believe in the NAM's forecast, then you'll buy right into channel 13's forecast..
Thanks wxdata. I didn't realize these were mirror spit-outs of the NAM. Based on what has been said about the NAM in the past regarding events more than a day or so away, I definitely have reservations about putting a lot of credibility into that one at this point in time.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:33 pm
by Andrew
hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea:
Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possible and what if the Euro shifts north tonight what then? I think it is a flip at this point.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:34 pm
by srainhoutx
Snowman wrote:this storm looks to have stalled out. i dont believe any model predicted that. would this give more time for the trough to dig and make a northerly track more likely?
Welcome. That is the big question. NHC
has stated they expected Alex to be a slow mover.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:39 pm
by srainhoutx
Good night folks. Tomorrow is another day.
Have fun night crew...
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:41 pm
by Mr. T
Andrew wrote:hmm parallel GFS sends it back out to sea:
Check the 850 vorticity. The main low has moved well inland by that point. That is just leftover low pressure in the Gulf
Also Tyler you know it is too early to say who is the winner and is almost foolish. I believe that a Texas strike is very well possible and what if the Euro shifts north tonight what then? I think it is a flip at this point.
I'm not saying that we should completely let our guard down, but the evidence is really against the GFS at this point... With its own parallel run flipping to the Euro's thinking, I wouldn't expect the Euro to shift much tonight. Interestingly, the 12z Euro shifted a little south of the 0z Euro landfall point.
Indeed, there is stil the remote chance of there being enough of a weakness across Texas to pull this north.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:41 pm
by Scott747
The parallel GFS is further S on this run. Doesn't take it back out into the Gulf as it dissipates over Mexico.
Re: TS Alex. 100 Miles WSW of Campeche. 45 MPH/991 MB
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2010 11:42 pm
by Stormrider
G'night srain.Catch you in the AM