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Aww Thank you!TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:00 pm At least there is Don and his excellent up to date model updates and graphics!
srain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
A lot will depend on how fast the system develops also, as there will be a inverted trough over the east gulf temporarily later this week that could pull the system northward.Before the ridge builds back in,how far north the storm is at that time and also how strong the ridge builds to the west will have big implications on where the storm goes.By Wednesday/Thursday we should know a lot more, especially once TC genesis occurs.Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:26 pm I just don’t see that ridge being that strong in 8-9 days
Euro, Canadian, GFS all see rejuvenation of Ridging Aug 29-31... Still worth watching this week just in case Mexico is not the destination, and one of the ensembles sniffs out another TC in the Bay of Campeche a week later...cperk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:29 pmsrain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
The ICON has this closer toward Texas though . . .DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:41 pmEuro, Canadian, GFS all see rejuvenation of Ridging Aug 29-31... Still worth watching this week just in case Mexico is not the destination, and one of the ensembles sniffs out another TC in the Bay of Campeche a week later...cperk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:29 pmsrain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
It’s a week + out. Models will flip flop for the next few days.cperk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:29 pmsrain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
Mine is September 15th, Peak of Hurricane Season!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm My birthday is on the 29th.... Hoping no nasty surprises with this forecast
Hope nothing bad happens this season, I had harvey during my birthday 4 years ago, that was pretty depressing lolOh that is terrbile! My friend has PTSD from Harvey . . .Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:13 pm Iceresistance yikes!
I was wondering what social media he was on. What is his handle?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
TropicsWatch...weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:16 pmI was wondering what social media he was on. What is his handle?srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
Thanks!
I would assume the ensembles. That is what he typically uses when advising their clients at this range.cperk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:29 pmsrain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
I do want to mention that most of the models on the next system next week do have consistency on the general location, but disagreement on the location & strength . . .srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 3:45 pmI would assume the ensembles. That is what he typically uses when advising their clients at this range.cperk wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:29 pmsrain what is he seeing that we’re not because the models appear to be pretty set on a Mexico hit.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 1:51 pm So I see Wxman57 just posted on Twitter that the models strongly suggest at least a Tropical Storm may for next week in the NW Caribbean or Southern Gulf. Mexico and Texas are the primary areas to watch.
Mine is also the 29th. Harvey pretty much ruined it in 2017.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 22, 2021 2:49 pm My birthday is on the 29th.... Hoping no nasty surprises with this forecast
Hope Mother Nature doesnt decide to send something oir way around that time