February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Mr. T]

Well this is my 1000th post and you are in it Thanks though. To not make this post completly useless here is the NAM:

-20 into the TX Panhandle....

Nice

[Andrew]

Well this is my 1000th post and you are in it Thanks though. To not make this post completly useless here is the NAM:

-20 into the TX Panhandle....

Nice

Yes very impressive run by the NAM. Should be interesting what GFS and others provide.

[Ptarmigan]

I am certain it will be cold and maybe we can get a snow or two.

[sleetstorm]

Some thunderstorms are or were developing between Abilene and Waco southwest of Fort Worth & Dallas.

[wxman57]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

[Mr. T]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

In the upper 20s before midnight after having morning highs in the 60s?

Daaaang...

[wxman57]

I made a loop of the 00Z NAM projected snow accumulations. Just two images - the 48hr and the 84hr projection. You can see the snow swath appear from eastern OK through the Midwest:

[weatherguy425]

And wouldn't that help retard substantial modification of the air mass behind the system?

[Ptarmigan]

In the upper 20s before midnight after having morning highs in the 60s?

Daaaang...

It happened. In the February 1899 freeze, the high was 40 and went down to 6! Yes, 6.

[Ptarmigan]

A low forming in the Gulf later this week with southwest flow. Interesting pattern. I am assume out of this, we could see some frozen rain and possibly snow. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm............................

[Andrew]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

In the upper 20s before midnight after having morning highs in the 60s?

Daaaang...

I think the most impressive part is the 0c 850mb line isn't even here yet when we are in the upper 20's. Thu is prob when things are going to drop!

[ejburas]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

In the upper 20s before midnight after having morning highs in the 60s?

Daaaang...

I think the most impressive part is the 0c 850mb line isn't even here yet when we are in the upper 20's. Thu is prob when things are going to drop!

[wxman57]

A low forming in the Gulf later this week with southwest flow. Interesting pattern. I am assume out of this, we could see some frozen rain and possibly snow. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm............................

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/f144.gif

Look at the pressure on the TX coast - 1020mb. That low would be way too far offshore to impact us. No moisture with it that far out there.

[txsnowmaker]

[quote="wxman57"]Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

Wxman57, since you don't see any impact from a possible coastal low, where would you be looking for potential secondary disturbances to emanate from?

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS looks colder this run.

[Andrew]

The 00Z GFS looks colder this run.

I am looking at the PSU site and it actually looks a little warmer in the upper levels (5000ft) but with a stronger high....

[wxman57]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

Wxman57, since you don't see any impact from a possible coastal low, where would you be looking for potential secondary disturbances to emanate from?

That wasn't a coastal low the UKMET was indicating, it was way out in the middle of the Gulf. Look at the 120 hr panel and you'll see it was even farther south. Any impact would be in the southeast U.S. when it neared the coast.

[Mr. T]

The 00Z GFS looks colder this run.

I am looking at the PSU site and it actually looks a little warmer in the upper levels (5000ft) but with a stronger high....

It's warmer in the upper levels and colder on the surface. The GFS has the source region a little colder this run...

[srainhoutx]

Dallas out with a SWS. Winter Storm Watches coming it appears...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141-301130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-
ELLIS-COMANCHE-
1015 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 1ST...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN
NORTH TEXAS WITH QUICKLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.
NEARLY ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS FORECASTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING BY
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING UNTIL EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING A WINTER MIX TO
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ABOUT
WHEN THE SUB- FREEZING AIR WILL ARRIVE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING.

LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO ROCKWALL TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND OR SNOW ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THIS SAME AREA BUT THE
AMOUNT OF ICE IS STILL BEING DETERMINED. HOWEVER...SOME MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING AND HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST. THE FORECAST IS STILL BEING ASSESSED WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN AND WITH SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...THE DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ARE STILL BEING DETERMINED AND WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WINTER WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

[txsnowmaker]

Note that the NAM brings the front through a bit after 9am Tuesday, earlier again. I wouldn't be surprised if it comes through by sunrise Tuesday. Still, it shuts down the precip with the frontal passage. Question is, what happens later in the week with any secondary disturbances?

Wxman57, since you don't see any impact from a possible coastal low, where would you be looking for potential secondary disturbances to emanate from?

That wasn't a coastal low the UKMET was indicating, it was way out in the middle of the Gulf. Look at the 120 hr panel and you'll see it was even farther south. Any impact would be in the southeast U.S. when it neared the coast.

Got it--thanks for explaining. Regarding later in the week, are you open to the idea that moisture associated with secondary disturbances could impact our area?