Is this similar to what we went through a couple of weeks ago?
May 2024
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tireman4
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Agricultural Fires in Mexico..."“It’s kind of like a delayed effect. So it’s probably going to take some hours and days before the air quality improves, because, again, the air is very stagnated,” he said. “It’s almost like, equivalent to being in a traffic jam. You’re on the highway, it’s … bumper to bumper … that’s kind of how the atmosphere is right now, it’s not moving at all. So anything that is coming into the region, smoke from fires, that’s going to have an impact.” https://myrgv.com/publications/the-moni ... next-week/
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tireman4
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Well, I will not go that far, but in the DWF they had a similar experience this morning. .
Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
Active weather is back. The derecho was the exception, not the rule, but severe thunderstorms are definitely possible today and beyond.
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tireman4
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Matt Lanza@mattlanza
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5m
Fun fact: Using daily average temperatures, 7 of the 20 hottest May days on record at Hobby Airport have occurred in 2024, including the hottest May day on record, yesterday.
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5m
Fun fact: Using daily average temperatures, 7 of the 20 hottest May days on record at Hobby Airport have occurred in 2024, including the hottest May day on record, yesterday.
Lots of instability in the air. NWS has increased rain chance to 50-60% over the next few days, beginning with this evening. The Ensembles and NWS are more confident than the Mesos for rain.
Regardless, it appears we're in for a "cooler" but more unstable weather pattern for the remainder of the week.
Regardless, it appears we're in for a "cooler" but more unstable weather pattern for the remainder of the week.
From Jeff:
All of southeast Texas has been upgraded into an “enhanced” or level 3 out of 5 risk for this afternoon.
Large complex of thunderstorms over north Texas is moving toward the southeast and either this complex itself or new thunderstorms that will form along its leading outflow boundaries are likely to impact SE TX starting as early as noon and lasting into the early evening hours. While there is still some uncertainty and how exactly this will evolve this afternoon, confidence is increasing that strong to severe thunderstorms will move into the region.
Main threats will be damaging winds of 60-80mph and large hail although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The air mass over SE TX is very unstable and will support vigorous thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours.
High winds may down trees and tree limbs, fences, and move loose outdoor objects. Power outages will be possible.
Tonight:
A second complex of thunderstorms will likely develop over portions of central Texas and move into SE TX late tonight into early Wednesday. It is unclear how this complex will evolve as much of its evolution and severe threat will be determine with the incoming weather this afternoon. Should thunderstorms this afternoon become widespread the air mass will become “worked over” and tonight’s activity may weaken as it moves into the area. This seems to be recent indications in the high resolution guidance. Again not a lot confidence in this part of the forecast.
Heavy Rainfall:
Thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with higher isolated totals of 3-5 inches where any cell mergers or slowing of lines occurs. High hourly rainfall rates may lead to rapid short term flash flooding. Widespread flooding and flash flooding is not expected.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org (mailto:jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org)
| Twitter: @jefflindner1
All of southeast Texas has been upgraded into an “enhanced” or level 3 out of 5 risk for this afternoon.
Large complex of thunderstorms over north Texas is moving toward the southeast and either this complex itself or new thunderstorms that will form along its leading outflow boundaries are likely to impact SE TX starting as early as noon and lasting into the early evening hours. While there is still some uncertainty and how exactly this will evolve this afternoon, confidence is increasing that strong to severe thunderstorms will move into the region.
Main threats will be damaging winds of 60-80mph and large hail although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The air mass over SE TX is very unstable and will support vigorous thunderstorm development through the afternoon hours.
High winds may down trees and tree limbs, fences, and move loose outdoor objects. Power outages will be possible.
Tonight:
A second complex of thunderstorms will likely develop over portions of central Texas and move into SE TX late tonight into early Wednesday. It is unclear how this complex will evolve as much of its evolution and severe threat will be determine with the incoming weather this afternoon. Should thunderstorms this afternoon become widespread the air mass will become “worked over” and tonight’s activity may weaken as it moves into the area. This seems to be recent indications in the high resolution guidance. Again not a lot confidence in this part of the forecast.
Heavy Rainfall:
Thunderstorms will produce rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with higher isolated totals of 3-5 inches where any cell mergers or slowing of lines occurs. High hourly rainfall rates may lead to rapid short term flash flooding. Widespread flooding and flash flooding is not expected.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org (mailto:jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org)
| Twitter: @jefflindner1
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Are we thinking later in the afternoon near commute time, or late this evening?
Looks like storm initiation is rapidly firing along the outflow boundary to our northwest. This is round one that we will have to keep an eye on for the afternoon.
The CAPE levels for coastal SE Texas today are mind-blowing for this late in May.
far greater than 5,000 across the board.
far greater than 5,000 across the board.
MCD up. (And now the TS watch)
From Jeff:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of SE TX until 600pm
A line of thunderstorms and associated outflow boundary from the large complex of weather over N TX this morning is starting to move into SE TX. The air mass ahead of this feature is very unstable and will support vigorous thunderstorm development. High resolution guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will rapidly develop between 1-5pmover the area and move toward the south and southeast.
Given the instability in place severe weather will be possible with damaging winds of 60-80mph, large hail to 2 inches in diameter, brief excessive rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Keep an eye on the weather this afternoon.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of SE TX until 600pm
A line of thunderstorms and associated outflow boundary from the large complex of weather over N TX this morning is starting to move into SE TX. The air mass ahead of this feature is very unstable and will support vigorous thunderstorm development. High resolution guidance continues to suggest that thunderstorms will rapidly develop between 1-5pmover the area and move toward the south and southeast.
Given the instability in place severe weather will be possible with damaging winds of 60-80mph, large hail to 2 inches in diameter, brief excessive rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Keep an eye on the weather this afternoon.
The outflow is charging at 55 mph. We had a violent arrival with 50 mph gusts just a moment ago. Nature is angry.
Get Prepared now Houston.