June 2022

[Cpv17]

I think the TVCN model has a pretty good handle on this. Starting to see some consensus between Rockport and Seadrift.

[don]

18Z HWRF and HMON.

[Stratton20]

00z Tropical models shifted to the east quite a bit, thats not good, that east trend is bad

[Cpv17]

0z tropical models shifted east . Consensus now over Matagorda Bay. Great

[Cpv17]

00z Tropical models shifted to the east quite a bit, thats not good, that east trend is bad

Yeah the 18z looked way better. 0z would cut my rain totals down quite a bit.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I would get almost nothing, especially since this is going to be lop sided

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I would get almost nothing, especially since this is going to be lop sided

Yep, that’s true. I’m literally right on the edge between getting 1-2” or 4-5+”. Looks like a pretty sharp gradient.

[don]

0Z models

[Cromagnum]

So when the hell are we supposed to receive any rain from this? I'm pretty much going to have to water tomorrow if we aren't getting anything until Saturday (if at all).

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted

Yeah that sounds about right.

[jasons2k]

0.00” again

[Stormlover2020]

This is how it always is flood maker in southeast texas

[weatherguy425]

Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted

Yeah that sounds about right.

One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

[Rip76]

Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted

Yeah that sounds about right.

One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

Please listen to this.

[djmike]

Good for me here in Beaumont if it verifies. May not happen BUT what is it with SETX and major flood events? I’ll gladly accept 5-7” from Mr Blob over a period of time, but anything more, Ill tap out! Hopefully this “thing” wont go down in history books. Im tired of being a part of history. Lol

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 00z HRRR is not our friend either , focuses the heavier rains toward beaumont and most of SE Texas except for coastal communities get shafted

Yeah that sounds about right.

One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

Yeah there could be some feeder bands still that stretch back into the Gulf after the storm lifts northward and then there could be some that stretch back to the sw with a training ne movement. We’ll see.

[tireman4]

Yeah that sounds about right.

One thing to keep in mind... the remnant LLC will continue to push into Texas in the days post "landfall". It'll also continue to pose a risk of localized heavy rain events. Even if the risk of flooding is greatest along the coast and further east (day of)... the chance of beneficial rain and some heavy rain may linger, expand inland in the days following.

Please listen to this.

I second that emotion. It could be a long few days

[Stormlover2020]

Going to be like Imelda type event, somebody getting flooded

[mcheer23]

WRF also shifts east…..