August 2020:

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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18z HWRF has Marco riding the Louisiana coast into Texas in a weakened state, just like the 18z GFS.
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Tx2005
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HWRF has Laura hitting central LA at 933 mb.
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Cpv17
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HMON has a 923mb Laura into Chambers County.
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Stormlover2020
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18z euro is running
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Cromagnum
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HMON and HWRF are scary but also hard to believe
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Tx2005
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I’ve seen people mention both the hmon and hwrf tend to overdo intensity. Hopefully that’s true.
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Stormlover2020
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Euro maybe 50 miles west of 12z about the same
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 7:03 pm HMON has a 923mb Laura into Chambers County.
Image

Here is the HMON model. It has 160 mph winds! That is 4:00 AM next Thursday. It is scary to think about. :shock: :o
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don
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Early 0z models bending back to the west...
aal14_2020082300_track_early.png
14L_tracks_latest5.png
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Last edited by don on Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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AtascocitaWX
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So is HMON a reliable model?
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Kingwood36
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don wrote: ↑Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:10 pm aal14_2020082300_track_early.pngEarly 0z models...14L_tracks_latest5.png
Looking like he wants to come back to texas..lol this dude needs to make up his mind
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don
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Yes he does LOL, seems like Marco is still at play.
18z GFS/GFS PARA Ensembles also bringing back a west bend.
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Last edited by don on Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Stormlover2020
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Models have sucked so bad this year
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Waded
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Marco and Laura will make the third and fourth storms this year that raised a bit of a fuss when model runs showed them effecting SETX, only for the storms to go somewhere else with minimal impacts on us.

Yawn. Maybe we will get some legit excitement in September. My house got a shower earlier, so I'm good. Better than nothing, I guess.
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srainhoutx
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Levi just installed the new GEFS v12 (parallel) that is going to be operational very soon.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jabcwb2
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Nothing in the way of even a slight sprinkle in Tomball.
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txbear
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Would be interesting to chronicle the “pin the tail on the donkey” of the models, along with the NHC cones/tracks. I say that with the full acknowledgement that is NOT bashing the NHC. I’m sure it’s been hair-pulling frustrating in their office, if this board is any indication.

ETA: decided to dive into the scotch for the 10pm update run up.
Last edited by txbear on Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormlover2020
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Anybidy have 18z euro ensembles
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tireman4
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Windshield Wiper effect
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snowman65
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Is it just me or are the last 2 graphics from NHC the same for both storms?? No changes?
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