January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[Kingwood36]

Maybe a flurry north of houston say Huntsville but I doubt anything here in the city or south

[srainhoutx]

Power outages reported across the Rio Grande Valley where winds are gusting to near 50 MPH.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS for next Tuesday. Frozen precip not too far away.

[CRASHWX]

A9868028-D893-478C-818E-38EC05240BFE.png

FV3-GFS 12z

[Kingwood36]

12z GFS for next Tuesday. Frozen precip not too far away.

Ya but it isnt close either lol

[nlosrgr8]

Tireman4...thank you for the full text!

[Cpv17]

12z GFS for next Tuesday. Frozen precip not too far away.

Ya but it isnt close either lol

It’s a week out. Models have been trending better every day for next week.

[Cpv17]

Here’s an example of the warm bias of the GFS in the short range. Has temps in the upper 30’s-low40’s when the actual lows are supposed to be in the low 30’s for Thursday morning.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z European suggests a strong front arrives next Tuesday. Still looking rather impressive for 168 hours out. Hold on to your hats... those are some gusty Northerly breezes associated with the cold front.

[jasons2k]

That wind today is crazy!! At least it’s from the right direction now!

Noticed the ash and sweet gum trees already started blooming last week. Spring is close! Just gotta get through the next few weeks of miserable weather then hopefully things can warm-up around here.

[Kingwood36]

That wind today is crazy!! At least it’s from the right direction now!

Noticed the ash and sweet gum trees already started blooming last week. Spring is close! Just gotta get through the next few weeks of miserable weather then hopefully things can warm-up around here.

What miserable weather? Hasn't been very cold or rainy this winter..been dull actually..you just must be one of those ppl that hates winter period lol

[tireman4]

The late morning AFD is shorter....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 221749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

.AVIATION...
BKN/OVC ceilings late this morning are mostly in a 4000-5000 foot range,
and S winds are generally around 12-22 knots and gusty. Starting to
see some lowering ceilings along with some -RA areas in/around CLL,
and expect this trend to continue for the rest of the area this afternoon
and on into tonight. Winds will decrease after sunset, then swing around
to the NW and N behind the cold front that will move through the area
overnight. Current timing of the front and wind shift is around 03-05Z
CLL/UTS, 06-08Z CXO/IAH/SGR and 08-10Z LBX/GLS. Gusty NW to N winds
will prevail behind the front along with mainly -RA/-SHRA. Area should
become VFR from west to east tomorrow morning with decreasing winds
tomorrow afternoon. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

UPDATE...

Despite the fairly heavy cloud in the sky, temperatures are
warming up nicely so far this morning. In fact, have gone ahead
and tacked on an extra degree or so to high temperatures today,
particularly nearer the coast. Beyond that, have attempted to
refine PoPs for timing of showers ahead of/with the oncoming front
through tonight, but haven`t really changed the general idea.

Given the moderate to gusty onshore winds and reports from beach
patrol, have added a rip current statement to the various hazards
around the water. Have given a thought to adding a short fuse wind
advisory to the barrier islands, but still think we`ll manage to
stay below 25 mph except for the occasional gust.

[CRASHWX]

70196847-ADEF-4DD4-BE32-A41FA88813C6.png

5EA985E6-4847-4F72-B52B-68CABD96CE47.png

JUST FYI...

[Kingwood36]

70196847-ADEF-4DD4-BE32-A41FA88813C6.png5EA985E6-4847-4F72-B52B-68CABD96CE47.pngJUST FYI...

All this talk and hype and it always bombs out..maybe this will come true..for the umpteenth time

[srainhoutx]

Crash, what do all these JB tweets have to do with our neck of the woods? He is and always has been East Coast biased. Chicago is NOT even close to our Region. In fact most of the Energy Mets are East Coast centric and tend to drive Natural Gas, LNG and generated electricity futures. Twitter reposts are fine when done in moderation...

[wxman57]

Not too much of interest as far as our weather this week. cold front comes through tomorrow morning. Maybe another light freeze on Thursday morning, through the temperature may only drop to the mid 30s. Potential for a bit more of a freeze around next Wednesday (30th). Maybe upper 20s. Too cold for biking, too warm for snow.

[BlueJay]

That wind today is crazy!! At least it’s from the right direction now!

Noticed the ash and sweet gum trees already started blooming last week. Spring is close! Just gotta get through the next few weeks of miserable weather then hopefully things can warm-up around here.

What miserable weather? Hasn't been very cold or rainy this winter..been dull actually..you just must be one of those ppl that hates winter period lol

Our azaleas are ready for spring - they are budding now.
I'm ready for springtime too!

[CRASHWX]

Crash, what do all these JB tweets have to do with our neck of the woods? He is and always has been East Coast biased. Chicago is NOT even close to our Region. In fact most of the Energy Mets are East Coast centric and tend to drive Natural Gas, LNG and generated electricity futures. Twitter reposts are fine when done in moderation...

Well Srain read it bro it says heartland and then talks about temps in Chicago so yes temps modify but if you are talking through the heartland than I assume he is talking about temps that will move through the northern plains down through the southern plains...you like George Straits song Heartland! Or am I wrong? I have acknowledged he leans EastCoast but I felt he still had good info to share unless you guys don’t feel he is legit or worth sharing and I will stop! Sorry if I have over participated...my feeling is I have since in the many years I have looked at this site I don’t remember you guys calling anyone out for posting info from another credible Pro. I will stop If I have stepped on toes.

[CRASHWX]

I guess I was reading more into it as heartland refers to Central plains then looking at weeklies it seemed pretty logical that the cold temps would continue sliding south...I believe even you Srain made some reference to the long term so I guess I was just offering support to that line of thought. Looking back though the post I have made when it was Tweet oriented was maps 90% plus weatherbell tweets with maps or graphs.

[srainhoutx]

Moderation was a key line in my post, Crash. We are not trying to quash conversation. We are trying to keep things informational for our Region or where most of our folks live which is Texas and along the Gulf Coast. Nothing personal. I follow JB too...