2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

Who let the GFS get the keys to the whiskey cabinet again?

[Pas_Bon]

Who let the GFS get the keys to the whiskey cabinet again?

If it were to pan out, please leave some whiskey for me. And I don’t even drink hard liquor

[Stratton20]

Holy smokes that one heck of an ominous run from the EPS 00z

[Pas_Bon]

Starting to get a tad concerned with this Caribbean cruiser. I don’t like the trajectory of this, nor do I like the synoptic setup

Eyes peeled, y’all.

[sswinney]

I’m keeping a super close eye on the forecast. We leave on an Eastern Caribbean 7-day cruise tomorrow. I think on the way back on Saturday might be dicey.

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS, well that certainly got my attention very fast!

[Rip76]

[biggerbyte]

What a change few weeks make. Everyone is Texas and Louisiana should pay close attention to what transpires in the weather department. There are a handful of possibilities over the next ten days. The outcome is going to be determined by three possible influences. A front, trough, and ridge can take an incoming system out of the west all the way into Mexico, or the Northern Gulf coast, Katrina style. For us in Houston, another possible scenario is a long push west before turning northward right towards Texas.

[Stratton20]

Most of the EPS guidance waits until the western caribbean to start developing this wave , most of the eps is clustered in the western gulf, and kinda just sits in the BOC before the EPS has a trough coming down to start turning the system northward

[Cpv17]

I’m not really concerned about anything right now. We have about 3-4 weeks left of hurricane season in Texas. Something is just way off with this season. No one saw this coming. Not that I’m complaining.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 and thats why im being extra cautious here, this wave still needs to be watched, and for anything that tries to form closer to home, I definitely dont think we are in the clear for the season either, the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks keep the entire texas gulf coast above normal in terms of precipitation, so we still have to watch this

[Stratton20]

Worth mentioning this as well

[Rip76]

[DoctorMu]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

https://youtu.be/GLdz6zfJMDI?si=W7lpdxBHFx1XGE9F

[Rip76]

Haha, great song choice.

[Ptarmigan]

I’m not really concerned about anything right now. We have about 3-4 weeks left of hurricane season in Texas. Something is just way off with this season. No one saw this coming. Not that I’m complaining.

Hurricanes can make landfall on Texas in November. Very rare occurrence, which last happened in 1839.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lch/event ... istory.pdf

One theory why this season has been rather quiet is due to Sunspot.


Here is The Most Mysterious Song On the Internet, known as Like The Wind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPGf4liO-KQ

[jasons2k]

Well, rain chances for next week were 80%, then 70%, then 60%, now down to 40%

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza

[biggerbyte]

We can't say 100% where this is going, but we know where it's been. Texas getting tropical mischief so early in season was a clue that something is just not right..

I'll say that any and all are capable of getting the forecasts wrong. It's the nature of the beast. I've seen a lot of mean comments in the weather department about such. Over the years, some of those comments have been directed at me.

At any rate, there is just nothing we can stick a fork in.. 57 was on to something. No doubt about it. He caught a lot of flack. I hope he gets some recognition for more than just getting it wrong.

So, where does it go from here? No model or person can say with 100% certainty.. Tell that to the folks on another forum.

Have a great day, everybody..

[Stratton20]

EPS from last night had an 80-90% probability of this wave becoming at least a TD in the BOC, and yet everyone on storm2k is writing it off completely, ill never understand this kind of thinking, i just dont get it lol