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redfish1 wrote:latest visible satellite looks like alex is moving NNW

I asked previously how you are basing these movements.

Eyeballing or coordinates?

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I still say a range of tall mountains decoupling the low level circulation from the mid-level circulation happens. Remember 1994, and East Pac Hurricane Rosa. The surface low didn't cross the mountains, the mid level low and tropical moisture slug did, and moved over a shallow cold layer of air over Texas and rained like crazy.

So, assuming that this has happend, could a new circulation form?

We have a center folks. There is some mid level spin SW of the center. HI RES VIS Imagery clearly showed this before night fall.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 01:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 1:12:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°10'N 91°08'W (19.1667N 91.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 62 miles (99 km) to the SW (220°) from Campeche, Campeche, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 603m (1,978ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (259°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 344° at 30kts (From the NNW at ~ 34.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the WSW (257°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the north quadrant at 23:19:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

just eyeballing

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Stormrider wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:I still say a range of tall mountains decoupling the low level circulation from the mid-level circulation happens. Remember 1994, and East Pac Hurricane Rosa. The surface low didn't cross the mountains, the mid level low and tropical moisture slug did, and moved over a shallow cold layer of air over Texas and rained like crazy.

So, assuming that this has happend, could a new circulation form?

I don't know. Doesn't seem to happen much I can remember. Might be a pro-met question, beyond my non-pay grade.

No prob, Ed. You're smarter than the average bear...watcher!

The VM is this is TS Alex again...and it aint wasting time....

Some assistance from the night crew for the full package update and intermediate advisories would be appreciated in the NHC Outlook thread. Big night ahead.

I was watching TWC a little while ago and did a double-take when their track showed Alex landing ashore with wind speeds of only 25 mph. Then, I read a blog that said that the further north the system goes, the more wind shear and drier air it might encounter, inhibiting opportunities for further intensification. So I am left wondering, do the pros here think that this system could spend three or four days in the warm GOM and still come ashore at only TD strength?

Paul wrote:The VM is this is TS Alex again...and it aint wasting time....

and the pressure confirmed with the second pass is typically associated with a strong TS or weak hurr. obviously that's only a general case and windspeed depends on the gradient, not the absolute pressure, but it's certainly encouraging to have an LP that deep after the crossing.

i'm hopeful for the d-max tonight... nice tower appears to already be going up close to the CoC on the east side.

txsnowmaker wrote:I was watching TWC a little while ago and did a double-take when their track showed Alex landing ashore with wind speeds of only 25 mph. Then, I read a blog that said that the further north the system goes, the more wind shear and drier air it might encounter, inhibiting opportunities for further intensification. So I am left wondering, do the pros here think that this system could spend three or four days in the warm GOM and still come ashore at only TD strength?

The TWC?? please look to the NHC for updates....the TWC is crap since Lyons left....

srainhoutx wrote:Some assistance from the night crew for the full package update and intermediate advisories would be appreciated in the NHC Outlook thread. Big night ahead.

Night crew will be here....I have got 3 shiners down me...its going to be a fun night...

Paul wrote:

txsnowmaker wrote:I was watching TWC a little while ago and did a double-take when their track showed Alex landing ashore with wind speeds of only 25 mph. Then, I read a blog that said that the further north the system goes, the more wind shear and drier air it might encounter, inhibiting opportunities for further intensification. So I am left wondering, do the pros here think that this system could spend three or four days in the warm GOM and still come ashore at only TD strength?

The TWC?? please look to the NHC for updates....the TWC is crap since Lyons left....

Duly noted on TWC, which is why I paid a little more attention after reading the blog entry (Jeff Masters). As of earlier this afternoon, he was only giving a 10% chance of this becoming a major hurricane.

Hopefully wxdata has a ball of string and bailing wax ready...

In total there are 51 users online :: 13 registered, 3 hidden and 35 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

txsnowmaker wrote:

Paul wrote:

txsnowmaker wrote:I was watching TWC a little while ago and did a double-take when their track showed Alex landing ashore with wind speeds of only 25 mph. Then, I read a blog that said that the further north the system goes, the more wind shear and drier air it might encounter, inhibiting opportunities for further intensification. So I am left wondering, do the pros here think that this system could spend three or four days in the warm GOM and still come ashore at only TD strength?

The TWC?? please look to the NHC for updates....the TWC is crap since Lyons left....

Duly noted on TWC, which is why I paid a little more attention after reading the blog entry (Jeff Masters).

Dr Masters is a good as they come...I respect him along side Neil Frank....Speaking of Frank....isnt time to bring him out of retirement for this?

Paul wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Some assistance from the night crew for the full package update and intermediate advisories would be appreciated in the NHC Outlook thread. Big night ahead.

Night crew will be here....I have got 3 shiners down me...its going to be a fun night...

Sounds like a fun night I know 2k is going to be on fire! It is going to be a long day at work tomm.

FWIW -

Even though I won't be chasing Alex unless it were to become a threat to the upper Texas coast as a major...

Just recently had a long talk with my chase partner (Josh) and if I were to be chasing, I'd be making plans right now to head towards Mexico and across the border tomorrow afternoon. It's not so much a landfall projection point as it is making plans to establish a base with the potential to quickly move.

As always that could quickly change in the next 12 to 24 hours.

srainhoutx wrote:Hopefully wxdata has a ball of string and bailing wax ready...

In total there are 51 users online :: 13 registered, 3 hidden and 35 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

Chewing gum and duct tape- works every time. If push comes to shove, I guess we could always fire up the old board (gag...)

Perhaps Scott can get Josh to rejoin us as he was a member of the 'old board'. Many enjoyed your adventures of Dolly and Gustav. We all were a just bit busy to fully enjoy Josh's Ike intercept.

wxdata wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:Hopefully wxdata has a ball of string and bailing wax ready...

In total there are 51 users online :: 13 registered, 3 hidden and 35 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

Chewing gum and duct tape- works every time. If push comes to shove, I guess we could always fire up the old board (gag...)

I actually checked it out yesterday for a link but man was it slow.


Speaking of that do y'all need donations? Would that help sustain the forum during high traffic and bandwidth periods?