January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The OP 12Z Euro is very impressive with the developing storm system next week. That model also is suggesting chilly air returns to much of North America from the Great Basin on E. The Polar Vortex depicted by that model establishes W of Hudson Bay in Central Canada with +PNA Western Blocking Ridge building into Alaska as well as a -NAO or blocking Ridge near Newfoundland.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has very little precip for Houston through 192 hrs (0.20") - and lots of nice warm weather!

[wxman57]

Boring is nice.

The 12Z Euro does indicate a possible light freeze late next week (for Houston).

[wxman57]

The 12Z Euro's 2-meter temps for next Thu/Fri have Houston's lows in the 34-38 deg range with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Nothing too extreme.

[C2G]

Excellent news wxman57. Few more weeks of keeping the extreme cold away and we may end up escaping it this winter.
Hope we have an early spring with many thunderstorms.

[ticka1]

still got february to usher in cold winter weather.....its not over yet!!! bring on he artic blast

[cristina99]

still got february to usher in cold winter weather.....its not over yet!!! bring on he artic blast

Like, like, like.....I'd love to prove my mom wrong...and the sci guy from the Chronicle. I am not ready for the warm, warmer, and down right hot weather. More cold please!

[Ptarmigan]

still got february to usher in cold winter weather.....its not over yet!!! bring on he artic blast

Some of the biggest cold blasts occurred in February. 1895, 1899, 1905, 1933, 1951, 1989, and 2011.

http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/freeze.htm
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm

[C2G]

Yes, February can bring some mighty cold weather, but with each passing day we draw closer to that possibility fading.
Bring on Spring.

[harpman]

Yes, February can bring some mighty cold weather, but with each passing day we draw closer to that possibility fading.
Bring on Spring.

We haven't really had a winter. You'll get your spring followed by stifling heat soon enough. Let those of us who enjoy winter have our time.

[C2G]

We haven't really had a winter. You'll get your spring followed by stifling heat soon enough. Let those of us who enjoy winter have our time.

It's really not up to me, besides it's a bone chilling 50 degrees out there tonight, which is a winter time temperature.
These last few weeks have been unbearably cold for me, so you've had your winter. While you may not get your pipe busting, blizzard like, arctic, polar express, you have had some cool temps and moisture.
Time for that glorious warm sun to return.
Bring it on wxman57.

[srainhoutx]

Unsettled Pattern Returns To Our Region:

The pleasant pattern we have enjoyed will be winding down as an unsettled pattern takes hold by the weekend and lingers to the end of January.

A weak frontal boundary will slowly meander S on Thursday and pull up stationary some where across Central/E Txas into Southern Louisiana by Friday. Moisture will be to slowly increase as a return flow off the Gulf with increasing dew point take hold and foggy nights with cloudy warmer days become the theme as we head into the weekend. A series of short waves across the Plains may bring a chance of isolated storms and rain chances Saturday into Sunday across the Eastern half of Texas into Louisiana.

To our W, a developing trough will break down the upper ridge that has been present for a week to 10 days and a series of upper air disturbances dig S into California and the Baja Region of Western Mexico. Meanwhile additional energy further N across W and Southern Canada along the Polar Jet will deepen and a positive tilted trough will develop from the Great Lakes SW to NW Mexico. Pressure falls to our W will increase a southerly onshore flow from the Gulf bringing increased moisture with PW's nearing the 1.7 to 2.0 range which is very high for the time of year. To our W across N Arizona and New Mexico snow will develop as moisture and colder air from Western Canada filters S into the Great Basin and into the Rockies. A series of upper air disturbances with embedded short waves will drop S into Southern California and round the base of the trough and ripple ENE.

By early next week, a strong storm system will develop to our W and begins a slow march across Northern Mexico into New Mexico and the Southern Plains. The SPC has outlined a Day 7 Risk for Arkansas, but has noted that the Risk area will likely be reconfigured as better continuity becomes available in future model guidance and the eventual evolution of the pattern developing becomes clearer. At this time a stronger cold front looks likely in the mid next week time frame. The fly in the ointment continues to be a strong MJO (octant/phase 8) and a noisy sub tropical jet pattern that may well lead to over running moisture over a shallow cool air mass as we end January and begin February.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST WED JAN 23 2013

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS LIKELY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

ON SAT/D4...THE ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPORARILY ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. MODELS DO
INDICATE A LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SUN/D5...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTERACT
WITH A MOISTENING AIR MASS TO THE S TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TX...OK...AND KS. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...IT
WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WHILE A LARGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN
STATES. THE PASSAGE OF THE LEAD TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROUGH BY PRIMING THE AIR MASS
WITH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ON MON/D6...A FULL DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER TROUGH.

TIMING DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. STILL...THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL WARM
SECTOR MOISTURE...AS WELL AS A BROAD AREA OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND FORCING ALL SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER IS PROBABLE. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THE THREAT WILL INITIATE...MATURE...AND
DIMINISH. GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE AREA...WILL INTRODUCE SEVERE FOR TUE/D7
CENTERED OVER AR.

THIS SEVERE AREA IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SHAPE AND SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS AS MODEL GUIDANCE CHANGES.

..JEWELL.. 01/23/2013

[jasons2k]

http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm

Love that site - I have gone back to check it many times over the years. And some of the pages provide a detailed description of the plant/tree damage done in the RGV back in the '83 and '89 freezes. I hope we don't see anything like that again in my lifetime.

My garden is doing surprisingly well after last week's mini-hard freeze. I'm hoping we can skate by the rest of the winter without another episode like that. If we can, even my bananas may survive with the trunks intact.

[wxman57]

I'm liking what I'm seeing as far as the next 7 days of temps. European model is trending toward the GFS (warmer) for this weekend, too.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Increasingly mild weather will prevail for the next several days across the region.

NW upper level flow will slowly transition to a more zonal and eventually a SW flow aloft by this weekend and early next week. A northern plains storm system will drag a weak cool front into TX on Thursday with the boundary moving into SE TX Friday and stalling out. Main concern over the next 2-4 days will be development of overnight/morning fog and the formation of sea fog over the nearshore waters through the entire period. Dense ¼ mile visibility radiation fog is in place over much of the area this morning (especially south of I-10). This fog will dissipate by 9-10am with partly cloudy skies resulting in high temperatures in the mid 70’s this afternoon (about 10 degrees above average for this time of year).

Weak to moderate onshore flow over the next few days will usher in increasing dewpoint temperatures. A check of current water temperatures shows 55-57 degrees along the Gulf beaches and 52-54 degree in the bays. As surface dewpoints begin to climb above the water temperatures the threat for dense sea fog will begin to develop as the surface air is chilled as it flows over the “cold” water. Tonight may be marginal as dewpoints start to reach the mid 50’s, but Thursday evening onward as dewpoints rise into the upper 50’s and low 60’s should result in a fairly widespread dense sea fog bank that will persist for the next several days (both day and night).

With the weak frontal boundary arriving into the area and stalling Friday-Sunday and weak disturbances passing across in the upper level flow there will be a chance of light rain or showers through the entire period. Amounts will be on the light side and not all areas will see rainfall…so will keep the chances in the 30% range for Friday-Sunday. Moisture begins to deepen on increasing southerly winds early next week as a stronger storm system approaches from the southern Rockies. Some timing differences in the major models suggest increased rain chances from Tuesday-Wednesday of next week. This system looks fairly strong and could be our next “weather maker”.

Until then warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50’s and low 60’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s under foggy mornings and partly cloudy afternoons with a few passing showers.

[wxman57]

"Until then warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50’s and low 60’s and highs in the mid to upper 70’s under foggy mornings and partly cloudy afternoons with a few passing showers. "

Music to my ears! Better call the wife and have her plug in the batteries for the bike lights. Time for some evening rides.

[wxman57]

I monitor NW Gulf water temps quite closely as I'm involved in the forecasting of marine advection fog for various clients navigating coastal waters and the Houston Ship Channel. Typically, the worst fog issues over water (not land) occur when water temps are below 60F. With an extended period of onshore flow setting up I expect some significant closures to the Houston Ship Channel in the coming days. Inland, that means lots of low clouds during onshore flow.

But water temps can rise 1-2 degrees per day under moderate onshore flow. Eventually, the water temps will rise above 60. Once the temps rise above 65 or so the low clouds inland won't be so much of an issue with return flow. If we can escape any significant cold advection here then water temps could climb into the 60s in February. I'd go with late February or the first week or two in March for the end of the fog and low-cloud season.

The graphic below is a plot of water temps at 3 locations in the ship channel. The channel entrance near the northern tip of the island, Morgan's point - which is the entrance to the Houston Ship Channel in NW Galveston Bay, and Lynchburg - the northern part of the channel.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Medium Range Update:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 AM EST WED JAN 23 2013

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 26 2013 - 12Z WED JAN 30 2013

IN PRINCIPLE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THAT A
TROF NEARING THE WEST COAST AS OF DAY 3 SAT WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE WRN-CNTRL CONUS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN PACIFIC. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PAC SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT SOME
ENERGY WITHIN THIS TROF MAY BE PULLED SWWD OVER AND BEYOND THE
SWRN CONUS/EXTREME NWRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A BROAD
AREA OF MSTR AND BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO THE WEST AND
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AHEAD OF IT. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFOREMENTIONED TELECONNECTIONS INDICATE
BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE TN VLY/SOUTHEAST
WITH A DRIER TREND OVER THE WEST.

WHILE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE HELD ONTO A FAIRLY STABLE EVOLUTION OVER
THE CONUS AND VICINITY DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO... OPERATIONAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER FROM RUN TO RUN AND AMONG EACH OTHER
WITH RESPECT TO THE DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE MODERATELY
PROGRESSIVE AND POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROF. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE ERN
PAC TROF DAY 3 SAT AND BY DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED BECOMES FAST WITH THE
SRN HALF OF THE MEAN TROF AXIS. THE 06Z GFS ADJUSTED TO A MUCH
SLOWER/CLOSED LOW SOLN WHICH AT LEAST FALLS MORE WITHIN THE
CONSENSUS ENSEMBLE MEAN TROF AXIS... THOUGH THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE
DEEPER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE PAST TWO OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS
LIE BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS EXTREMES AND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD
MAY HAVE LESS SWWD ELONGATION OF ENERGY THAN RECOMMENDED BY
TELECONNECTIONS.

IN LEADING NRN STREAM FLOW GFS RUNS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN
ERRATIC AND NOT WELL SUPPORTED BY MOST OTHER SOLNS FOR SHRTWV
DETAILS... FAVORING A CONSENSUS APPROACH. SOME SPREAD IS ALSO
NOTED WITH TIMING OF THE SHRTWV EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SWRN
CONUS/NWRN MEXICO SAT ONWARD. THE GFS... ESPECIALLY THE 06Z
RUN... TRENDS FAST ONCE THE FEATURE REACHES THE PLAINS WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF IS A BIT ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE SPREAD. THIS SHRTWV
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN AREA OF PCPN SPREADING NEWD FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES WITH SOME SNOW PSBL IN THE NRN PART OF THE MSTR SHIELD.

THE RELATIVE CONSISTENCY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS... PLUS A SUBTLE
TREND OF GEFS MEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF MEANS THAT HAVE HAD A LITTLE
MORE SWWD ELONGATION OF THE MEAN TROF AND FURTHER TREND OF THE 06Z
GEFS MEAN IN THAT RESPECT RELATIVE TO THE 00Z RUN... YIELD A
PREFERENCE FOR A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN
AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7 FCST. RELATIVE TO
CONTINUITY LATEST CONSENSUS IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE
GULF COAST AS OF EARLY DAY 3 SAT. BY DAY 7 WED THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY FASTER TREND WITH THE NRN HALF OF THE FRONT REACHING THE
EAST. AT THE VERY LEAST THE UNCERTAINTY IN RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN VERSUS UPSTREAM FLOW SEPARATION ALLOWING FOR
FASTER NRN STREAM PROGRESSION FAVORS TIMING SLOWER THAN THE 00Z
CMC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

RAUSCH

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational GFS has trended a bit 'colder' for mid/late next week and there are hints of some severe weather in the warm sector as well as possible light wintry mischief as the trough/upper air disturbance moves E across Texas. We will see.

168 Hour:

01232013 12Z GFS f168.gif

174 Hour:

01232013 12Z GFS f174.gif

180 Hour:

01232013 12Z GFS f180.gif

[wxman57]

The water cools/warms as air advects above it. It tries to assume the temperature of the air over it. So if warm onshore winds persist for a while, the ocean slowly warms. Under a cold northerly wind, the sea surface steadily cools.

Here's the 12Z GFS Meteogram. It shows next Wednesday's cold front and temps not as warm as 06Z. It's going to be hard for temps to get to 80 deg with the cool water present.