May 2024
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Lets wait until mesocale models come into range, globals do not do well with NW flow and any sort of disturbances embedded aloft
?? The Mesos have been gawdawful.
The Ensembles agree long term. More of the same until further notice with lower DPs...the good news is that there will be a 30-40% chance of rain from Tuesday onward.
The Ensembles agree long term. More of the same until further notice with lower DPs...the good news is that there will be a 30-40% chance of rain from Tuesday onward.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun May 26, 2024 6:34 pm Lets wait until mesocale models come into range, globals do not do well with NW flow and any sort of disturbances embedded aloft
I agree. I believe there could be more rain further south as well like what the Euro is showing. CPC forecast looks pretty good for us.
90 degrees and 80% humidity at 9AM. Absolutely gross.
Happy Memorial Day everyone. It's gonna be a scorcher and I plan to spend the afternoon in the pool.
Amidst all of today's fun and gatherings, don't forget to take a moment to remember those who paid the ultimate price for our freedom.
Amidst all of today's fun and gatherings, don't forget to take a moment to remember those who paid the ultimate price for our freedom.
No real change in the models, Mesos as NW flow this week will bring in impulses and some rain - we could use a bit.. Canadian is probably most favorable to the southern tier of the region, except the coast.
40-50% chance of rain Tuesday night - Saturday in CLL.
40-50% chance of rain Tuesday night - Saturday in CLL.
See the NW Flow, Be the flow.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Key Messages:
Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight for
portions of SE Texas
Heat Advisory in effect until 10 PM tonight for locations
outside of the Excessive Heat Warning
Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight and Tuesday for much of
SE Texas
The hottest day in our streak of hot weather days has arrived, and
following today`s heat indices of 115-115 [sic] degrees we will begin to
see a slight (and very gradual) decrease in HI values through the
rest of the week. For today though...With this being an
extraordinarily hot day, and a holiday, please remember to take
precautions in the heat!
If you plan to beat the heat by taking a dip in the Gulf, continue
to practice beach safety. We have received a few reports of people
becoming caught in rip currents this holiday weekend, and today will
feature another high risk for rip currents. If you find yourself
caught in a rip, remember to wave, yell, and swim parallel to the
shore. Avoid swimming near piers and jetties where rip currents are
more likely to develop.
In addition to the heat and beach safety, there is a risk for severe
weather later today (looking like the evening to just before
midnight time frame) and again on Tuesday. SPC has outlined most of
the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for both Monday and
Tuesday.
The severe weather threat is conditional on whether or not the
robust cap in place over the area erodes ahead of the storms. Hi-Res
guidance has varied run-to-run on location and strength of storms,
with the latest HRRR showing the storms dying off as they approach
the Brazos Valley. AggieDome!!
Digging a little deeper into the setup, 500mb level shows a quasi-
zonal flow with a few disturbances and pockets of PVA traversing SE
Texas this evening into tonight. Further west a boundary is expected
to setup over Central Texas which will trigger storms out towards
the San Antonio area. These storms will track southeast and if the
cap holds together, they should weaken upon arrival; however, if the
cap is able to erode (could happen with daytime heating, cooling off
in the mid-upper levels, outflow boundary interactions), storms would
have plenty of CAPE to work with. They would also have the potential
to become organized with decent shear. This would lead to the
potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a brief isolated
tornado.
Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning will feature more tranquil
weather. Lows will be in the 70s to around 80s with pretty humid
conditions.
NW flow will take over Tuesday and will help trigger the next threat
of severe weather from that direction during the evening hours. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this setup has the tendency to
be more conditional with the threat for severe thunderstorms.
Highest PoPs lie in the NW counties. Strength and longevity of
storms will largely depend on the erosion of the capping inversion
and timing of arrival for PVA. Damaging winds and hail will be the
main hazards with any storms that are able to make it into SE Texas.
In any case, have multiple ways to receive alerts today and Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Less hot, but somewhat unsettled pattern takes shape as upper
ridging retreats a bit further southeast. This will allow
disturbances embedded in the wnw-nw flow aloft to track a bit
further south into the region. Low-mid level capping will also be
less dominate from keeping shra/tstms from developing or
maintaining themselves as they move in.
A continued onshore flow will prevail and sufficient moisture will
be available for scattered precip across portions of the CWA each
day. The main forecast challenge is determining the more
favorable time periods for convection. Guidance has been
indicating the potential for upstream development, maybe an MCS or
two, during the last half of the week...but at varying time
periods and locations. This is typical for such a pattern and
makes the POP fcst difficult - especially when the mesoscale comes
into play. Suspect NBM is substantially too low with POPs for a
good part of the extended fcst, but I really cannot say exactly
when. For the grids, I did about a 50% mix NBM and a 50% mix of
various deterministic models and WPC guidance.
At this time, wouldn`t be overly surprised if early Wed morning,
Wed night-Thursday morning, and Friday daytime/evening might be
the more favorable times...with northern parts seeing better
chances than the coast. But again, forecast confidence in regards
to the specifics is fairly low. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Mixture of IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning with patchy fog developing
across the area. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by the
afternoon hours. Winds will be light out of the SE today. Isolated
storms possible tonight before midnight. Some storms could become
strong to severe and produce damaging winds and hail. MVFR CIGs
will return overnight with patchy fog possible again Tuesday
morning.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Key Messages:
Excessive Heat Warning in effect until 10 PM tonight for
portions of SE Texas
Heat Advisory in effect until 10 PM tonight for locations
outside of the Excessive Heat Warning
Marginal Risk for severe weather tonight and Tuesday for much of
SE Texas
The hottest day in our streak of hot weather days has arrived, and
following today`s heat indices of 115-115 [sic] degrees we will begin to
see a slight (and very gradual) decrease in HI values through the
rest of the week. For today though...With this being an
extraordinarily hot day, and a holiday, please remember to take
precautions in the heat!
If you plan to beat the heat by taking a dip in the Gulf, continue
to practice beach safety. We have received a few reports of people
becoming caught in rip currents this holiday weekend, and today will
feature another high risk for rip currents. If you find yourself
caught in a rip, remember to wave, yell, and swim parallel to the
shore. Avoid swimming near piers and jetties where rip currents are
more likely to develop.
In addition to the heat and beach safety, there is a risk for severe
weather later today (looking like the evening to just before
midnight time frame) and again on Tuesday. SPC has outlined most of
the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for both Monday and
Tuesday.
The severe weather threat is conditional on whether or not the
robust cap in place over the area erodes ahead of the storms. Hi-Res
guidance has varied run-to-run on location and strength of storms,
with the latest HRRR showing the storms dying off as they approach
the Brazos Valley. AggieDome!!
Digging a little deeper into the setup, 500mb level shows a quasi-
zonal flow with a few disturbances and pockets of PVA traversing SE
Texas this evening into tonight. Further west a boundary is expected
to setup over Central Texas which will trigger storms out towards
the San Antonio area. These storms will track southeast and if the
cap holds together, they should weaken upon arrival; however, if the
cap is able to erode (could happen with daytime heating, cooling off
in the mid-upper levels, outflow boundary interactions), storms would
have plenty of CAPE to work with. They would also have the potential
to become organized with decent shear. This would lead to the
potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a brief isolated
tornado.
Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning will feature more tranquil
weather. Lows will be in the 70s to around 80s with pretty humid
conditions.
NW flow will take over Tuesday and will help trigger the next threat
of severe weather from that direction during the evening hours. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, this setup has the tendency to
be more conditional with the threat for severe thunderstorms.
Highest PoPs lie in the NW counties. Strength and longevity of
storms will largely depend on the erosion of the capping inversion
and timing of arrival for PVA. Damaging winds and hail will be the
main hazards with any storms that are able to make it into SE Texas.
In any case, have multiple ways to receive alerts today and Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Less hot, but somewhat unsettled pattern takes shape as upper
ridging retreats a bit further southeast. This will allow
disturbances embedded in the wnw-nw flow aloft to track a bit
further south into the region. Low-mid level capping will also be
less dominate from keeping shra/tstms from developing or
maintaining themselves as they move in.
A continued onshore flow will prevail and sufficient moisture will
be available for scattered precip across portions of the CWA each
day. The main forecast challenge is determining the more
favorable time periods for convection. Guidance has been
indicating the potential for upstream development, maybe an MCS or
two, during the last half of the week...but at varying time
periods and locations. This is typical for such a pattern and
makes the POP fcst difficult - especially when the mesoscale comes
into play. Suspect NBM is substantially too low with POPs for a
good part of the extended fcst, but I really cannot say exactly
when. For the grids, I did about a 50% mix NBM and a 50% mix of
various deterministic models and WPC guidance.
At this time, wouldn`t be overly surprised if early Wed morning,
Wed night-Thursday morning, and Friday daytime/evening might be
the more favorable times...with northern parts seeing better
chances than the coast. But again, forecast confidence in regards
to the specifics is fairly low. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Mixture of IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning with patchy fog developing
across the area. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by the
afternoon hours. Winds will be light out of the SE today. Isolated
storms possible tonight before midnight. Some storms could become
strong to severe and produce damaging winds and hail. MVFR CIGs
will return overnight with patchy fog possible again Tuesday
morning.
&&
Models are beginning to look better for some rain further south. The GFS and CMC both look a little better now compared to previous runs and the 12z HRRR has a pretty potent looking MCS moving through early Wednesday morning.
The 12z HRRR provides some hope of rain for SETX (and possibly severe weather) on Tuesday.
NAM halts the festivities at Hwy 1*5. We'll see.
NAM halts the festivities at Hwy 1*5. We'll see.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon May 27, 2024 12:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I'm not seeing a big trend (just posted the QPF), but hope you are right!
What’s up with all the haze outside? Smoke coming from wildfires in Mexico or something? There’s not even any sun out. Just a bunch of overcast skies and haze around.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z Euro looks really nice across se texas!
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97°F here currently with a DP of 79° making it feel like 117°F. Can you say f that?
We didn’t even have a heat index that high last summer. Wild.
We've had haze for 10 days+. Initially there was an inversion layer and the humid air was trapped and not able to rise.
Looks like a lot of upper level WV on GOES.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24
Those storms out of Mexico could mean bring some rain to the RGV.
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