The Altlantic aiming to awaken after August nap, as we watch east of the islands
By Matt Lanza on August 27, 2024
Headlines
Tropical development remains possible next week just east of the Caribbean islands.
No signs of anything imminently bad or significant yet, but it'll be the primary area to watch.
The Gulf Coast will get soaked through next week with at least some low-end risk that something could try to form in the Gulf later next week.
An additional system or two will be possible heading into the week of the 12th, but details are minimal right now.
Atlantic to awaken
Even before Ernesto exited on August 20th, it was apparent that we were headed into a somewhat lengthy lull in tropical action in the Atlantic basin. The signs of the nap ending are continuing to stack up as we head toward next week. Let's be clear right away: This doesn't mean that things are going to go crazy all of a sudden (though one can't rule that out this year), nor does it necessarily mean there's an imminent threat to anyone. But there will be more noise than we've seen since Ernesto.
There's a 20 percent chance of development over the next week in the central Atlantic per the NHC.
An area of interest got identified yesterday by the National Hurricane Center with odds of 20 percent for development over the next week. Those aren't especially high, but as we've seen from storms this year, they all started from generally low probability points. I personally think the chance over the next five days is close to zero, with chances rapidly increasing on days six to seven, so I would expect this potential to increase tomorrow and Thursday.
The area of note is from the mass of clouds in the Atlantic between the Caribbean and Africa, just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa right now.
A satellite snapshot of the Atlantic basin today, with the area of interest just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
This doesn't look like much at this time, which is sort of the point. Any development from this area is going to be sluggish over the next five days or so, which is why I'm not particularly keen on anything here until next week.
But, support within modeling for this area to eventually develop continues to sustain today. Overnight runs of the European ensemble model and GFS ensemble model show at least marginal support for something to develop just east of the islands early next week. This may get off the ground slowly, but it should get off the ground. Looking at the GFS ensemble from this morning, you can see a decent signal for below average sea level pressure just east of the islands next Tuesday.
Support for below normal sea-level pressure east of the islands which could indicate some tropical development.
This doesn't mean a big storm or even a well-organized storm. But it's a signal that adds to other signals that supports development.
From here, where would this go? Great question. There seem to be mixed signals today in modeling in terms of exact details on where high pressure will establish and move in the Atlantic next week. So, much like yesterday, I don't want to overspeculate on where this could end up going. Just know that we continue to see potential next week just east of the islands, and those in the islands should monitor the progress of this forecast.
Gulf soaker
Meanwhile, looking farther west, the Gulf continues to look unsettled well into next week. While there is very little signal for anything specific, just the fact that we have a lot of moisture, thunderstorm chances, and little movement means we'll be seeing a lot of festering in the Gulf next week. We've got disturbances, stalled fronts, and more just sort of sitting there. It remains more of a curiosity than a concern at this point, but it will be an area I'd watch later next week out of an abundance of caution.
The western Gulf Coast will continue to get soaked by rain and storms into next week, with perhaps as much as 8 inches or more of total rain on the Texas or Louisiana coasts.
Regardless, the Gulf Coast will get soaked into next week. We could see as much as 4 to 8 inches or even more in spots between about Matagorda Bay and New Orleans. Coastal locations are most likely to see the heaviest rainfall. While flooding may not be a serious concern initially, after repeated rounds of rain, we could hear more about flooding risks in this area. We'll continue to babysit things to be safe.
Beyond next week
After the Gulf disturbance and the system east of the islands, we've got one or two other waves emerging off Africa with some signals in the modeling showing up today. Nothing imminent or particularly likely, but this would make some sense. Regardless, expect things to get busier after next week.
2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
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Stratton20
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Their is a signal about 6 days out in the GEFS for some mischief on our front door step, worth watching as the CPC already has highlighted SE texas for a slight risk of heavy rain next week, very intriguing pattern shaping up next week
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It maybe quiet right now. I think once it picks up come September. It will be active to November. I would not be surprised if December has it fair share of storms.
Tropics Fall Silent for Now
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/tr ... nt-for-now
The Saharan dust is keeping a lid on any development.
The Bell has Rung, So Why are Forecast Models So Muted?
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/th ... e-forecast
Other factors come to play as why it has been quiet so far. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is further north than usual. The tropical waves are going further north and get eroded by the Saharan dust.
While the Tropics Rest, the Atlantic Heats Up
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/wh ... e-atlantic
A quiet tropic allows the Atlantic to heat up.
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/tr ... nt-for-now
The Saharan dust is keeping a lid on any development.
The Bell has Rung, So Why are Forecast Models So Muted?
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/th ... e-forecast
Other factors come to play as why it has been quiet so far. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is further north than usual. The tropical waves are going further north and get eroded by the Saharan dust.
While the Tropics Rest, the Atlantic Heats Up
https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/wh ... e-atlantic
A quiet tropic allows the Atlantic to heat up.
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tireman4
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Gulf of Mexico trying to bring some noise as we ease our way into a busier period
August 28, 2024 at 10:36 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Slow tropical development is becoming a growing possibility in the western Gulf of Mexico heading into next week.
Though there are no signs of rapid development, any organized tropical system would be slow to move and may impact rainfall forecasts for next week in Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico.
The Atlantic tropical wave may hold off on development until it moves across the Caribbean, and it merits watching beyond later next week.
Watching the Gulf because we can’t not
For anyone who forecasts or lives on the Gulf Coast, during hurricane season you know that when stuff just kind of festers offshore you at least want to pay attention. That’s where we are right now. There’s no imminent sign of development, modeling is generally muted on development over the next week, and it’s pretty clear that the primary issue on the Gulf Coast over the next five to seven days will be rainfall.
The rain forecast over the next week continues to flag anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of rain on the Gulf Coast, along and south of I-10 in southeast Texas and Louisiana. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news for now is that the pace of the rain will come steady enough to hopefully avoid any meaningful flooding risks. Still, flash flooding and street flooding are always issues on the Gulf Coast in these patterns, so you should expect at least that.
Back to the chances of tropical development. If you look at a satellite loop over the western Gulf today, you definitely see a lot of thunderstorms.
Clouds indicate thunderstorms over the western Gulf (right side of the image), associated with a weak upper level low pressure system.
The good news is that these storms are associated with an upper-level low, not a surface low. Tropical storms and hurricanes develop at the surface, not upper levels. That being said, it’s not unprecedented for a setup like this to eventually yield a surface low. If that happens, you could perhaps see some slow tropical development. You could also see the heavier rainfall totals shift around into next week. Some modeling does bring a surface low to fruition over the next five or six days.
A minority of European ensemble members develop a surface low off the Texas coast through Labor Day weekend.
A handful of European ensemble members shown above do this. There’s a pretty consistent signal for this in the ICON model as well, not a one-off that leads to its somewhat divisive reputation as a tropical model. There are also hints of this in European model AI guidance too.
A loop of the surface and precip forecast from the ICON model from Sunday through Wednesday. Note the surface low developing in the western Gulf and not moving much. (Tropical Tidbits)
So what am I saying? We have enough model support to justify this as a potential area to watch over the next several days. Now, the good news is that none of these models develops the system into a hurricane. That said, a slow-moving system sitting off the Texas coast could produce some heavy rainfall, even beyond what’s currently forecast. Steering currents in the western Gulf are essentially dead calm next week, which means anything that does organize would move very slowly. If this just sits offshore and rains offshore, that’s no problem at all. But if things move farther north or west, then you have another story for parts of Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico.
So in summary…
Tropical development may not necessarily be likely, but it’s a very real possibility over the next 5 days or so off the Texas coast.
Any tropical system would likely be slow to organize and slow to move.
There could be volatility in rainfall forecasts for next week if this comes to fruition.
As always, uncertainty exists, so stay tuned and check back each day for the latest.
Looking in the Atlantic
So we’ve flip flopped today, focusing more on the Gulf than the Atlantic. That’s because support for any development of the tropical wave moving into the islands next week seems to have ebbed a good bit today. Not to say it’s impossible; there’s still a 20 percent chance shown by the National Hurricane Center. But model support seems to have peaked. That said, with slower development chances, this means the system may wait til it gets into the Caribbean to organize. You can see that on the ICON loop above which ends with the disturbance sitting south of Hispaniola by the middle of next week. Something like that seems reasonable right now. Any development looks slow.
So where would it go from there? Obviously, this is a bit of a shift west from earlier this week when it looked as if this might follow in Ernesto’s footsteps off the East Coast of the U.S. I would anticipate now that this follows the base of high pressure east of the Bahamas toward the northwest Caribbean. From there, all bets are off.
Tropical development from the Atlantic wave may be slow as it moves into the Caribbean, quite slow perhaps. But it bears watching as it comes west.
I would assume it comes into the eastern Gulf or toward the Yucatan, but it’s far too early to speculate much. Either way, while nothing is imminent with this one, it’s a sign to pay attention to things as we head into hurricane season’s peak month.
Behind this one, there continues to be model support for another wave emerging off Africa that could harmlessly turn north in the eastern or central Atlantic. We’ll keep tabs on that in case anything changes.
The NHC does have another area outlined in the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda that has a very low chance of development, but it should not impact anyone.
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August 28, 2024 at 10:36 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Slow tropical development is becoming a growing possibility in the western Gulf of Mexico heading into next week.
Though there are no signs of rapid development, any organized tropical system would be slow to move and may impact rainfall forecasts for next week in Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico.
The Atlantic tropical wave may hold off on development until it moves across the Caribbean, and it merits watching beyond later next week.
Watching the Gulf because we can’t not
For anyone who forecasts or lives on the Gulf Coast, during hurricane season you know that when stuff just kind of festers offshore you at least want to pay attention. That’s where we are right now. There’s no imminent sign of development, modeling is generally muted on development over the next week, and it’s pretty clear that the primary issue on the Gulf Coast over the next five to seven days will be rainfall.
The rain forecast over the next week continues to flag anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of rain on the Gulf Coast, along and south of I-10 in southeast Texas and Louisiana. (Pivotal Weather)
The good news for now is that the pace of the rain will come steady enough to hopefully avoid any meaningful flooding risks. Still, flash flooding and street flooding are always issues on the Gulf Coast in these patterns, so you should expect at least that.
Back to the chances of tropical development. If you look at a satellite loop over the western Gulf today, you definitely see a lot of thunderstorms.
Clouds indicate thunderstorms over the western Gulf (right side of the image), associated with a weak upper level low pressure system.
The good news is that these storms are associated with an upper-level low, not a surface low. Tropical storms and hurricanes develop at the surface, not upper levels. That being said, it’s not unprecedented for a setup like this to eventually yield a surface low. If that happens, you could perhaps see some slow tropical development. You could also see the heavier rainfall totals shift around into next week. Some modeling does bring a surface low to fruition over the next five or six days.
A minority of European ensemble members develop a surface low off the Texas coast through Labor Day weekend.
A handful of European ensemble members shown above do this. There’s a pretty consistent signal for this in the ICON model as well, not a one-off that leads to its somewhat divisive reputation as a tropical model. There are also hints of this in European model AI guidance too.
A loop of the surface and precip forecast from the ICON model from Sunday through Wednesday. Note the surface low developing in the western Gulf and not moving much. (Tropical Tidbits)
So what am I saying? We have enough model support to justify this as a potential area to watch over the next several days. Now, the good news is that none of these models develops the system into a hurricane. That said, a slow-moving system sitting off the Texas coast could produce some heavy rainfall, even beyond what’s currently forecast. Steering currents in the western Gulf are essentially dead calm next week, which means anything that does organize would move very slowly. If this just sits offshore and rains offshore, that’s no problem at all. But if things move farther north or west, then you have another story for parts of Texas, Louisiana, or Mexico.
So in summary…
Tropical development may not necessarily be likely, but it’s a very real possibility over the next 5 days or so off the Texas coast.
Any tropical system would likely be slow to organize and slow to move.
There could be volatility in rainfall forecasts for next week if this comes to fruition.
As always, uncertainty exists, so stay tuned and check back each day for the latest.
Looking in the Atlantic
So we’ve flip flopped today, focusing more on the Gulf than the Atlantic. That’s because support for any development of the tropical wave moving into the islands next week seems to have ebbed a good bit today. Not to say it’s impossible; there’s still a 20 percent chance shown by the National Hurricane Center. But model support seems to have peaked. That said, with slower development chances, this means the system may wait til it gets into the Caribbean to organize. You can see that on the ICON loop above which ends with the disturbance sitting south of Hispaniola by the middle of next week. Something like that seems reasonable right now. Any development looks slow.
So where would it go from there? Obviously, this is a bit of a shift west from earlier this week when it looked as if this might follow in Ernesto’s footsteps off the East Coast of the U.S. I would anticipate now that this follows the base of high pressure east of the Bahamas toward the northwest Caribbean. From there, all bets are off.
Tropical development from the Atlantic wave may be slow as it moves into the Caribbean, quite slow perhaps. But it bears watching as it comes west.
I would assume it comes into the eastern Gulf or toward the Yucatan, but it’s far too early to speculate much. Either way, while nothing is imminent with this one, it’s a sign to pay attention to things as we head into hurricane season’s peak month.
Behind this one, there continues to be model support for another wave emerging off Africa that could harmlessly turn north in the eastern or central Atlantic. We’ll keep tabs on that in case anything changes.
The NHC does have another area outlined in the open Atlantic southeast of Bermuda that has a very low chance of development, but it should not impact anyone.
Share this:
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Heading to NOLA for a wedding a week from this Friday. So, I can virtually guarantee tropical mischief lurking then.
The Gulf Coast will get soaked through next week with at least some low-end risk that something could try to form in the Gulf later next week.
The Gulf Coast will get soaked through next week with at least some low-end risk that something could try to form in the Gulf later next week.
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Stratton20
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Some of the overnight mesoscale models want to develop a weak TD/ and move it very and i mean very slowly along the texas coast line in about 30 hours or so, im becoming very interested
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Golden Triangle area about to get inundated.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2024 10:44 pm Some of the overnight mesoscale models want to develop a weak TD/ and move it very and i mean very slowly along the texas coast line in about 30 hours or so, im becoming very interested
Looks like we're going to enter a stretch to keep an eye out on the disturbance that's still a good ways from entering the Caribbean. Guidance in the mid range is at least getting something all the way into the central part and not getting picked up/recurve.
Long range gets it to just s/n of Jamaica (generally my benchmark to take more notice for a potential threat to the western gulf.) Only a wary eye for now....
Short range the little area that the ICON has been insistent on off the mid and lower Texas coast has finally got some very tepid support from the Ukie. Otherwise no other real support and likely the effects on our weather would be the same whether the low gets down to the surface or stays in the mid/upper levels. Unless it were to become more organized which currently appears to be a longshot.
Long range gets it to just s/n of Jamaica (generally my benchmark to take more notice for a potential threat to the western gulf.) Only a wary eye for now....
Short range the little area that the ICON has been insistent on off the mid and lower Texas coast has finally got some very tepid support from the Ukie. Otherwise no other real support and likely the effects on our weather would be the same whether the low gets down to the surface or stays in the mid/upper levels. Unless it were to become more organized which currently appears to be a longshot.
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Stratton20
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Looks like the 18z Hrrr wants to develop a weak surface low/ TD and stall it around beaumont, a lot of rain for east texas and lousiana, but not really much of anything for SE texas, that low needs to shift more south and west
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Stratton20
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Um 18z NAM? Are you drunk?
I think it’s time to start paying more attention to the orange system on the NHC website. This doesn’t look like it will be a fish. GFS and others have it in the Gulf as a Cat 3/4 at landfall along the Northern Gulf Coast
Our little area just of the coast gets a mention in the latest outlook -
1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. This system is expected to meander near the coast
through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if
it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy rains could
cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and
the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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Stratton20
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Worth watching, but with the exception of the coast, honestly in land counties in se texas might not even see much rain, at least thats how it looks right now
I tried telling you that a couple days ago lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 1:16 pm Worth watching, but with the exception of the coast, honestly in land counties in se texas might not even see much rain, at least thats how it looks right now
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 that being said the GFS/ Euro take the low in land and push it west, its still worth watching, im sticking to at least 2-5 inches for SE texas, with 10+ nesr the coast
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biggerbyte
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Okay, folks, it's time to gulf watch again..
Several days ago be talked about Louisiana needing to pay attention. There could be a big mess coming for someone along the gulf coast.
Several days ago be talked about Louisiana needing to pay attention. There could be a big mess coming for someone along the gulf coast.
Mexico to Florida. Nothing to be concerned about for now though. Just keep a casual eye on it.biggerbyte wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 1:52 pm Okay, folks, it's time to gulf watch again..
Several days ago be talked about Louisiana needing to pay attention. There could be a big mess coming for someone along the gulf coast.
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Stormlover2020
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18z GFS with one of its classical NSFW runs. Upper end cat 4 or 5 into Matagorda Bay. Still way out there in the long range....
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