2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Stratton20]

But it is coming, its just been delayed by a little bit, the switch is going to flip, we are just waiting on a few things to change first

[Scott747]

12z ICON just got interesting in a hurry.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 yep stalls a TS off the texas coast line, GFS not far either, weak surface low pressure, also has multiple other disturbances getting into the gulf behind this one, very interesting

[txsnowmaker]

Scott747 yep stalls a TS off the texas coast line, GFS not far either, weak surface low pressure, also has multiple other disturbances getting into the gulf behind this one, very interesting

Latest GFS is all the way down in Mexico, with zero effects for Southeast Texas.

[Stratton20]

txsnowmaker that is a seperate entity from what the ICON shows, its not the same system

[Stratton20]

12z Euro is similar to the ICON ( no development yet on this euro run) but stalls out weak low pressure over texas for a whole week, that got my attention pretty fast with the slow movement

[Stratton20]

I wouldnt be surprised to see the NHC tag the wave near florida with a in the next day or so, their are definitely some signs of organization of the wave on the Euro, ICON, and even the 18z GFS has a better defined wave axis although no development on this run yet, worth watching very closely in my opinion

[txsnowmaker]

txsnowmaker that is a seperate entity from what the ICON shows, its not the same system

For some professional perspective and context, this was just posted by ABC 13:

“Is there any chance for tropical development over the Gulf next week?

While it's not impossible, it's a very low chance. The low pressure disturbance sitting over us early next week will reduce wind shear over the tropical wave coming into the Gulf. This type of pattern in the past has led to unexpected tropical development missed by our computer models. Given we are in peak hurricane season, we'll surely keep an eye on it for you, but we are not expecting development at this time.”

https://abc13.com/houston-weather-forec ... ons/39346/

[Stratton20]

txsnowmaker yeah they are referring to the tropical wave thats near florida, the GFS is showing something coming out of the caribbean

[Cpv17]

There’s way too much bickering going on over at Storm2K. You can’t even post anything on there without someone trying to start something. It’s why I just choose to not really post on there.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah im getting frustrated with people on their, all i said was the switch is comimg, and i immediately got accused of wish casting lol

[Stratton20]

HMM ICON 00z continues to show tropical development off the texas coastline, very interesting

[txsnowmaker]

More good news per the latest from ABC13:

“There are no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor is there any development expected over the next 7 days.”

https://abc13.com/post/2024-hurricane-s ... /14867156/

[Stratton20]

Id just keep an eye on homegrown development, models can miss that, with a front coming down, that helps to lower pressure in the gulf, euro still has some energy hanging around the texas coast

[Stratton20]

Very interesting

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Change may be in sight in the Atlantic as we march into September but not this week
By Matt Lanza on August 26, 2024

Headlines
No tropical development is expected this week in the Atlantic.
A tropical wave has a growing chance to develop next week just east of the Caribbean islands and is worth watching.
The overall background in the Atlantic may become more conducive to tropical development by mid-September.
Hawaii will see modest impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Gilma this weekend.
Another quiet week
The Atlantic will remain quiet for another week here, as we have no real development chances anywhere in the basin of note. The Gulf Coast will be busy with showers and thunderstorms, but no development is expected from anything.


Rainfall over the next week or so is expected to be meaningful in the western Gulf, but this should come with no organized tropical systems.
The eastern Atlantic looks quiet for now as well, however there is a tropical wave sitting out there. While it is unlikely to organize this week, it is becoming increasingly plausible that we see this begin to organize a bit as it approaches the islands next week.


Disorganized thunderstorms southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands may try to organize as they come west toward the Caribbean islands next week.
Will we get Francine?
The next name on the list is Francine, and there seems to be growing support that we may see this emerge from the morass in the eastern Atlantic in time. The European model is on this with a moderate signal for possible development near the islands next Tuesday.


A decent number of European ensemble members show development of this wave next week just east of the Caribbean.
I think things are still a bit tenuous in the Atlantic in terms of dry air, sinking air, and other issues that are disrupting development right now. But the overall background state of the western Atlantic is likely to improve a bit beginning next week for possible development chances. There is also a minor signal in the Gulf for next week, but it remains a minority of model solutions. Still, this would signal that the wet pattern in the Gulf should continue next week as well.

As for the potential of Francine, whatever happens with this system in the Atlantic, it seems most likely to turn northwest at some point. But until we get some additional clarity on how this will shake out, I don't want to over-speculate. At the least, it would be good for the islands to keep tabs on this possible development next week.

Beyond this one, as I noted above, it does seem as if the overall state of the basin will improve going into the middle of September. This should allow things to pick up. In addition, all this quiet has allowed the Atlantic basin's sea surface temperatures to persist very warm. We sit at or above records everywhere right now.


Sea surface temperatures are at their 2023 records in the Atlantic main development region.
So it would make sense to think that as long as the background state of the basin becomes more hospitable for tropical development, it will begin again in earnest. Stay tuned.

Hawaii threats continue
After taking swipe from Hurricane Hone with some considerable flooding on the Big Island and some decent wind gusts. You can see some of the reports here. Next up, the remnants of Hurricane Gilma, which should arrive in the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. On this track, the worst of the rain impacts would likely pass north of the islands. Still, some modest impacts would be possible across the islands this weekend as it approaches and passes.


Hurricane Gilma will weaken significantly on approach to Hawaii, but it could still bring enhanced rain chances and breezes to the islands this weekend.
Behind Gilma, we have Tropical Storm Hector, which is not expected to become a serious threat to Hawaii.

[Stratton20]

The ICON continues to show low pressure spinning up in the western gulf, still worth watching

[Stratton20]

Homebrew maybe worth watching

[Ptarmigan]

It maybe quiet right now in the Atlantic. It could get active come September.

[Stratton20]

Increasing support from the gefs and EPS for some gulf mischief in the 5-7 day range