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Paul, I'm with you on this ... King Euro may be losing his crown.

RECON is arriving just in time...

Geez, it didn't take long for Alex's core convection to start firing up again did it?!

HWRF is north of brownsville....around CC...?

Paul wrote:HWRF is north of brownsville....around CC...?

Probably closer to Port Mansfield.

When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

18z GFDL -

Finally getting some consistency.

BP is evacuating rigs in the gulf they just said on TWC...Also said, Landfall anywhere from Houston south

Scott747 wrote:When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

I loved y"alls video of that storm. You and Josh did great work!

Portastorm wrote:

Scott747 wrote:When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

I loved y"alls video of that storm. You and Josh did great work!

Thanks Michael.

Unfortunately I have a business trip set up to Lake Havasu for a bikini and t shirt line, that I will probably miss this chase unless it were to threaten the upper Texas coast as a major.

Scott747 wrote:18z GFDL -

Finally getting some consistency.

A little further north from the 12z run... Looks like the HWRF

It will be interesting to see in what direction tonight's model runs move

Low pressures for a storm that has just emerged off the Coast...

178
URNT15 KNHC 272343
AF304 0401A ALEX HDOB 19 20100627
233400 1947N 09110W 9242 00664 9974 +206 +134 073028 029 027 000 00
233430 1945N 09110W 9247 00657 9974 +199 +136 069029 030 030 002 00
233500 1944N 09110W 9254 00650 9971 +209 +136 074029 029 028 000 00
233530 1942N 09110W 9250 00653 9970 +205 +136 076029 029 027 000 00
233600 1940N 09110W 9248 00654 9969 +205 +138 076031 032 028 000 00
233630 1939N 09110W 9249 00651 9967 +205 +139 080032 032 028 002 00
233700 1937N 09111W 9250 00649 9965 +206 +141 083032 032 029 001 00
233730 1935N 09111W 9249 00647 9963 +209 +142 082034 034 029 000 00
233800 1934N 09111W 9249 00646 9961 +207 +144 080033 034 030 000 00
233830 1932N 09111W 9245 00646 9959 +205 +145 078034 035 031 001 03
233900 1931N 09111W 9247 00644 9956 +205 +146 074035 036 031 000 00
233930 1929N 09111W 9248 00639 9954 +202 +147 074037 038 032 000 00
234000 1927N 09111W 9249 00636 9951 +201 +147 073038 039 035 001 00
234030 1926N 09110W 9243 00633 9944 +190 +144 071040 041 035 004 00
234100 1924N 09110W 9253 00620 9940 +190 +141 071040 042 036 006 00
234130 1922N 09110W 9254 00617 9935 +199 +138 080033 036 036 004 00
234200 1921N 09110W 9248 00618 9929 +208 +136 075028 029 035 003 00
234230 1919N 09110W 9253 00610 9925 +210 +135 070024 025 033 006 03
234300 1917N 09110W 9250 00608 9921 +210 +136 061022 023 030 008 00
234330 1916N 09109W 9244 00612 9916 +216 +137 050020 022 029 006 03
$$

992mb is crazy.....

When Pacific storm Darby has a 992mb pressure, its winds were 70 mph. Not suggesting that for Alex but that the pressure is awfully low.

they are not even at the center yet...sheesh...

Agreed Porta. I was thinking strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane status with pressures like that. Hummm

IMO, this is going to increase rapidly to a hurricane faster then any model had predicted.

Possible center...waiting on vortex message...

23:44:30Z 19.233N 91.117W 923.6 mb
(~ 27.27 inHg) 615 meters
(~ 2,018 feet) 991.0 mb
(~ 29.26 inHg)

Maybe the GFS wasn't so crazy after all with the trof:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

That pressure may be suspect... We'll see