April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[unome]

loop http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bwxloop_ndfd.html

[ticka1]

Thanks all for the updates as with weather its always a fluid environment! I will be here most of the night!

[ajurcat]

Thank you all for the updates. Not knowing the terminology and going back and forth to the weather 'dictionary', your input is greatly appreciated.

[unome]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
MAY HAVE DODGED THE BULLET WITH THE FIRST ROUND ACROSS MOST OF
SERN TX AS DIURNAL STORMS FAILED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITH
LIMITED CONVERGENCE/UPPER SUPPORT AND MODEST CAPPING IN PLACE.
EYES WILL TURN TO THE WEST AS WE MONITOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY LINE AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES EAST OVERNIGHT. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF OUR RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT
MAY NOW BE TIED TO BROKEN LINE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AFTER 06Z.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SERN TX WITH AXIS OF
1.5-2" PWS IN PLACE SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH /FORTUNATELY/ OVERALL TOTALS MAY BE
LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. REGARDLESS WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAINING AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SATURATED SOILS.

SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW DEPENDING ON
EFFECTS FROM EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY. IF THESE STORMS PUSH THROUGH
AS AN ORGANIZED MCS...WIND DAMAGE WOULD REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD THEN WORK-OVER AIR MASS ENOUGH TO REDUCE
TSTM POTENTIAL IN ITS WAKE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER IF THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND OR LEAVES A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WE
COULD SEE INCREASED TSTM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TOMORROW.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ABOVE MENTIONED
SCENARIO...BUMPING BACK POPS/QPF A BIT OVERNIGHT.

EVANS

[Ounce]

It's curious to me that a decent, little cell that caused rain on some of Victoria at 8:15 has evaporated about 30 miles later. I guess the atmosphere is still capped between Victoria and Columbus?

[TexasBreeze]

It seems that nothing is organizing so far and what is out there either dissipates or goes away to the north-northeast.

[davidiowx]

It seems that nothing is organizing so far and what is out there either dissipates or goes away to the north-northeast.

It is certainly appearing that way. It's a good thing though. We don't need anymore rain right now!

With that said, this event is just getting started. The Tax day flood arrived way ahead of schedule.. and this event (if it even comes to fruition) may be later.

I personally think this will be a big time rain maker up to the NE of our CWA. That is just my opinion of course. Things can change quickly. We have to watch throughout the night and see what develops.

[jasons2k]

Storms to the NE seem to be backbuilding a bit...

[Ounce]

Storms to the NE seem to be backbuilding a bit...

Ever so slowly.

[jasons2k]

May be some slight radar returns starting up around SW Houston...

[texoz]

In the last hour, between 10-11pm, the storms located north of ATX and south of Waco have begun turning more SE in direction with a more defined line developing.

[mcheer23]

Mother Nature 1
Cap 0

[David Paul]

During the drought years of 2010-2013... i hated the cap. Tonight, I love it.

[Ounce]

Seems like we were all decked out for the party, but the band never showed...or just the girl with the tambourine.

[nuby3]

Seems like we were all decked out for the party, but the band never showed...or just the girl with the tambourine.

When we expect it it doesn't happen and when we don't, it does. Weird

[Ounce]

A line of storms that popped San Antonio at 4 a.m. has generated a TStorm warning for Fayette county as it approaches LaGrange & Schulenberg at 5:40. Giddings should get some hard rain, as it's bowing at that point.

[Andrew]

MCS out west is currently moving at a pretty good rate and as long as it keeps tracking at the same rate we should only see 1-2 inches at most of rain over most of the flood sensitive areas. We will see if anything develops ahead of it and starts training in the next couple hours.

[unome]

strange pattern on radar, looks like a rectangle of "no rain" over us right now

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0Q-1-200

[nuby3]

really starting to see the radar fill in as the mcs from central texas catches up to the front firing ahead of it.

[BlueJay]

Just received a call from the NWS re: severe weather including heavy rain, winds and hail.Just